The reason I can be so certain, even though I have no affiliation (real or imaginary) with the Gator Bowl and/or Notre Dame? It's two-fold.

#1 - The Gator Bowl had it's 39th best (read: 24th worst) attendance last year for the Virginia - Texas Tech game. The announced crowd was more than 17,000 short of capacity... and that was the ANNOUNCED attendance. The bowl, with just two games remaining on existing contracts, needs to guarantee some attendance & viewership and -- in college football -- that means Notre Dame.

On a side note, this is also why the Gator Bowl may make any deal necessary to ensure Florida State or Miami ends up in Jacksonville, as well. Remember, the bowl committee still harbors some issues with the ACC for moving the championship game. There's an undercurrent there and the ACC needs to make nice with the Gator Bowl committee. A deal will get done for the Noles or Canes. I'm almost certain of it.

#2 - The Gator Bowl's crazy love-triangle conference affiliations (Big East, Big 12, & Notre Dame) provide for the Gator Bowl to take a Big 12 team and a Big East/Notre Dame in the two remaining years of its contract. Since the Big 2 of the Big 12 aren't available this season, the Gator Bowl would take a bowl-eligible Notre Dame over any team from the Big East, as per reason #1 above. There's no doubt that the Gator Bowl would love to get a Texas or Oklahoma in the game, but they can roll the dice this year and hope to get lucky in 2009.

So... while nothing is official until... it's official, I'm here to tell you it's official, for all intents and purposes.

For the complete 2008-2009 college football bowl schedule, see our bowl games page.

Here's a roadmap to how each of the ACC contenders can reach the championship game:

Atlantic Division

Maryland - Win out. Maryland holds or would hold all tie-breakers by winning out
Wake Forest - Win out and have 1 Maryland loss
FSU - Win out and have 1 Wake Forest loss
Boston College - Win out (BC would then hold tie-breaker in three way or two-way tie)

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech - Win out or lose to Miami & one Miami loss
Miami - Win out or beat VaTech to hold tie-breaker
UNC - Win out and one VaTech loss
Virginia - Win out, plus one UNC loss and two Miami losses

I'm pretty sure my math works out, but I may have forgotten to carry the seven somewhere. One thing is for sure - the ACC race will not be decided this weekend.

So... without further ado... my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 8, 2008.

Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule

New Mexico Bowl - San Jose State vs Colorado State

St. Petersburg Bowl - South Florida vs Houston

Pioneer Las Vegas - TCU vs Oregon

Eagle Bank Bowl - Virginia vs Navy

R+L Carriers New Orleans - Memphis vs Troy

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia - BYU vs Nevada

Sheraton Hawaii - Hawaii vs Stanford

Motor City - Central Michigan vs Illinois

Meineke Car Care - Cincinnati vs Maryland

Champs Sports - Virginia Tech vs Wisconsin

Emerald - Arizona vs Miami

Independence - Akron vs Florida International

PapaJohns.com - West Virginia vs. Florida Atlantic

Valero Alamo - Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State

Roady's Humanitarian - Boise State vs Boston College

Texas - Rutgers vs. Louisiana Tech

Pacific Life Holiday - Cal vs. Missouri

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces - Air Force vs Rice

Brut Sun - Oregon State vs. Nebraska

Gaylord Hotels Music City - Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky

Insight - Kansas vs. Northwestern

Chick-fil-A - Ole Miss vs North Carolina

Outback - Iowa vs South Carolina

Capital One - Georgia vs. Michigan State

Konica Minolta Gator - Wake Forest vs Notre Dame

AT&T Cotton - Oklahoma vs LSU

AutoZone Liberty - Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt

International - Connecticut vs. Western Michigan

GMAC - East Carolina vs. Ball State

Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. USC

FedEx Orange - Florida State vs. Utah

Allstate Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh

Tostitos Fiesta - Texas vs. Ohio State

BCS National Championship Game - Texas Tech vs. Florida

Bowl Eligible Teams through 11-8-2008

ACC - 8 teams eligible
FSU, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech

Big 12 - 7 teams eligible
Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big East - 5 teams eligible
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, South Florida

Big 10 -6 teams eligible
Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa

Conference USA - 3 teams eligible
East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice

Independents - 1 team eligible
Navy

MAC - 3 teams eligible
Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan

MWC - 4 teams eligible
BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force

Pac10 - 5 teams eligible
USC, Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State

SEC - 6 teams eligible
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU

Sun Belt - 1 team eligible
Troy

WAC - 2 teams eligible
Boise State, San Jose State

For a complete list of bowl game matchups by conference, dates, times, and television coverage, check our 2008 bowl game schedule.

This is a great story, if you ask me. This guy has a massive choice to make. A player that's always put academics first, Rolle has stated his goal has always been to go into medicine. But, he also has the ability to make a lot of money come April of 2009 in the NFL draft.

Compounding his decision, along with many other current juniors in the NCAA, is the NFL whispering about a new Collective Bargaining Agreement that will contain a tiered rookie salary cap. A lot of even marginal 1st round pick-caliber players are thinking long & hard about coming out in 2009, since the 2010 NFL draft may be far less monetarily valuable to their futures.

Does Rolle take the NFL money before its gone? Or does he once again choose education and principle over athletic glory?

Either way, its a great story coming out of Tallahassee...

The Graduation Success Rate measures how many players earned a four-year degree within a six-year window, accounting for both transfers into the footabll program as well as transfers out of the football program.

So how do the BCS schools stack up against one another? I'm glad you asked.

2008 NCAA Graduation Success Rate for BCS Football Programs

1. Notre Dame 94%
2. Stanford 93
T3. BC 92
T3. Duke 92
T3. Northwestern 92
6. Vanderbilt 91
7. Wake Forest 83
8. Texas Tech 79
T9. Baylor 78
T9. Nebraska 78
T9. UNC 78
T9. Penn State 78
T13. UConn 77
T13. Indiana 77
T15. Colorado 75
T15. Iowa 75
T15. Syracuse 75
T15. Virginia Tech 75
19. Cincinnati 73
T20. Illinois 70
T20. Michigan 70
T20. Miami 70
T20. Rutgers 70
24. Florida State 69
T25. Clemson 68
T25. Florida 68
T25. Maryland 68
T25. Wash State 68
.........................................
T29. Kansas State 67
T29. Pitt 67
31. Virginia 66
T32. South Carolina 65
T32. Washington 65
T34. Oregon State 64
T34. Ole Miss 63
T34. Miss State 63
T34. Purdue 63
T34. West Virginia 63
T34. Wisconsin 63
T40. Okla State 62
T40. UCLA 62
42. Arizona State 60
T43. N.C. State 59
T43. Missouri 59
45. Louisville 58
46. Auburn 57
T47. Kentucky 56
T47. Texas A&M 56
T47. South Florida 56
T50. Alabama 55
T50. Iowa State 55
T52. LSU 54
T52. Tennessee 54
T52. USC 54
T55. Cal 53
T55. Oregon 53
T55. Kansas 53
58. Ohio State 52
T58. Arkansas 52
T60. Minnesota 51
T60. Michigan State 51
62. Texas 50
T63. Georgia 48
T63. Georgia Tech 48
65. Oklahoma 46
66. Arizona 41

I wasn't surprised to see some of the finest academic institutions grabbing the top spots, but I was SHOCKED to see Texas Tech at #8. Kudos to the Red Raiders!

The average GSR scores of the six BCS conferences:

1. ACC........72.3
2. Big East...67.4
3. Big Ten....66
4. Big 12.....63.2
5. Pac-10.....61.3
6. SEC.........60.5

For all the blustering about the Pac10's high academic standards, I would have expected one of those standards to be.... graduation.

The following are updated through October 27, 2008:

1 BIG 12 (78.18)
2 BIG TEN (77.24)
3 ATLANTIC COAST (76.97)
4 SOUTHEASTERN (76.54)
5 PAC-10 (74.33)
6 BIG EAST (73.44)
7 MOUNTAIN WEST (70.27)
8 I-A INDEPENDENTS (67.33)
9 WESTERN ATHLETIC (65.57)
10 MID-AMERICAN (65.18)
11 CONFERENCE USA (63.31)
12 SUN BELT (61.11)

A find a couple facets of the current rankings rather fascinating:

- The SEC is the fourth best conference, top-to-bottom? Seriously? The SEC is 20-7 out-of-conference against DI-A teams this year. Granted, three of those seven losses are to the ACC, but... the ACC returned the favor in losing three to the SEC. Sagarin has three SEC teams in his top ten, but the ACC gets the slight nod when you contrast the middle and bottom of each conference, which makes sense when you consider that there are... like... forty-seven teams tied for first in the ACC.

- Is another non-BCS blowout in the offing? Cinderella teams from the WAC (Boise State), Mountain West (Utah, TCU), MAC (Ball State), and C-USA (Tulsa) are all looking to qualify into a BCS bowl this year. Sagarin's ratings would seem to indicate that their resumes might be lacking if and when they get to the big stage.

- The BCS conferences are head-and-shoulders above the non-BCS conferences. The separation between the Big East and Mountain West is statically significant, and I don't think we've seen any rankings that dispute that designation in the last four years.

Texas and Alabama - the nation's top two undefeated teams - have a clear road to the BCS National Championship game. In the words of legendary Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer - just win, baby. If the Horns and Tide win out (including their respective conference championship games), then the two will meet in the National Championship game. Period. End of story.

Undefeated Penn State will need help to reach the BCS National Championship game. For PSU, either Texas or Alabama must lose while the Nittany Lions must continue to win out. A UT or UA loss puts Coach Paterno and company in Miami, provided they remain undefeated. If Penn State loses - regardless of what happens above them - then PSU will likely get jumped by another one-loss team.

The prospects for the one-loss teams near the top of the polls became bleaker this weekend. The top three teams - by virtue of their sizable leads in the coming BCS poll - will not get jumped if they win out. OU, USC, UGA, and Florida are playing out the rest of the season just for a BCS game berth. They cannot reach the BCS National Championship game without losses from at least two of the three top undefeated teams.

This week's BCS poll results will be very telling for the down-but-(how are they never?)-not-out Ohio State Buckeyes. Despite the loss to Penn State, the Bucks still have the inside track on a Rose Bowl bid if PSU makes it to the championship game. How's that? Well, OSU is likely to be ranked in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. If Penn State doesn't play in the Rose Bowl, then Ohio State will.

And - despite the rising number of non-BCS teams trying to wear Cinderella's slipper - all of these developments do not bode well for the Utahs, Boise States, and Tulsas of the world. Quite the contrary, actually. After you take your automatic qualifiers and the the strong second teams from the BCS conferences, there may be just one BCS bowl game slot remaining. So - despite the number of non-BCS teams that could stake a claim - it now appears that only one will get to play in a BCS bowl game.

Here are my (totally worthless) BCS projections:

BCS CG: Texas vs Penn State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs USC
Orange Bowl: FSU vs Georgia
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Boise State

Here's the unofficial BCS rankings, as per BCSGuru.com.

Unofficial BCS Rankings

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn State
4. Oklahoma
5. Oklahoma State*
6. USC*
7. Texas Tech*
8. Utah**
9. Georgia**
10. Florida**
11. Ohio State
12. Boise State
13. LSU
14. South Florida
15. TCU

Note: Sam cautions that the two clusters of teams (those with one asterisk and then those with two) may be so closely ranked that the exact positions may fluctuate. In other words, the any of the one asterisk teams could be number five, six or seven)

As you can see, this is going to be VERY interesting poll, with three non-BCS conference teams in the initial top 15. Of course, TCU plays Utah later this year, so one of those two will drop out of contention for an automatic qualifier spot. But, as it stands today, at least one non-BCS conference team would be an automatic qualifier.

Remember, only one non-BCS conference team can be an "automatic qualifier", by virtue of being ranked in the top twelve in the BCS or being ranked higher than a BCS conference champion - such as the ACC or Big East in this unofficial poll. After the first non-BCS team is in, then the selection process is not required to select another non-BCS team.

Another important note of distinction, it would appear that Texas & Alabama control their own destiny. While SEC & Big XII fans have lamented having to play a championship game in the past, the conference championship games appear as if they will give both the Longhorns and the Crimson Tide one final chance to lock up a BCS berth. In other words, it is very possible that Penn State can win all of it's games and still not make it to the BCS National Championship game.

One fun trivia note - of the twenty #1 & #2 teams in the past ten initial BCS polls, statistically at least one of the two has appeared in every National Championship game (10 appearances).

Note: Ben Prather will be posting the official BCS rankings tonight in its own separate thread. Enjoy!

We also have BYU-TCU. I don't know where that game is on. Last I heard, in the 1st quarter, TCU was up 14-0. Ben Prather must be somewhere celebrating!

Michigan holds the current mark for the consecutive bowl game appearances with 33 straight bowl games. (The Husker fans in the crowd would be upset if I didn't mention that the record is held by Nebraska at 35 straight bowl games.)

...

So... from the looks of things, the streak should be safe, but it's not a certainty by any means. Michigan has a lot of talent, but no one can accurately predict just how quickly the team will gel. A couple of turnovers or breakdowns could turn a game I perceive to be a W into a loss.

If UM fails to make a bowl game this season -- which is certainly a possibility -- then the streak would likely pass to Florida State, who has an active streak of 26 straight bowl games.

So... while Rich Rod is trying to set a course for the future, he better watch his six. I know RR doesn't want to be the coach that snapped the streak.

We all kind of had a laugh & a chuckle, deciding it was best to have a little faith in Rich Rodriguez.

Fast forward three months and CBS Sportsline is catching up to our little chat from July.

Rich Rodriguez's debut season in Ann Arbor started shaky with a loss to Utah, looked worse after blowout losses at Notre Dame and to Illinois before sinking to new lows on Saturday because of a 13-10 loss to little-regarded Toledo (2-4).

Michigan (2-4) has its worst six-game record since 1967 -- two seasons before Bo Schembechler took over -- and its streak of playing in 33 consecutive bowls is looking as if it's due to end.

"We can't go anywhere but up -- obviously," cornerback Morgan Trent said.

Well, the Wolverines could continue to tumble. Michigan plays at No. 3 Penn State on Saturday and hosts No. 20 Michigan State next, hoping to avoid a fourth loss this season at home.

Michigan needs four more wins to be bowl eligible. Let's look:

@ #3 Penn State
#20 MICHIGAN STATE
@ Purdue
@ Minnesota (unranked but getting votes)
Northwestern
@ #12 Ohio State

Now... I'm not the smartest football mind in the room, but I don't see four wins. Anybody?

So... I ask you again... is Michigan's bowl streak in jeopardy?

Penn State is about to embark on the most crucial part of its season, but much of the focus this week has centered on Joe Paterno's deteriorating physical condition. Paterno has coached at least part of the last three games from the press box and from all indications he will be back upstairs for Saturday's game at Wisconsin.

Paterno, 81, is said to be slowed by an injury to his right knee. He has been hobbling badly this week and was forced to coach from a golf cart, an indication he is not getting better.

After Saturday's game at Purdue, Paterno wore unmatched shoes and used a lectern for support during his postgame news conference. He was helped to a waiting van afterward and whisked to the airport, where he boarded the university's private plane and was back in State College before his team left West Lafayette.

Paterno also left ahead of the team after the Sept. 13 game at Syracuse and has been doing his weekly radio show from home.

"Paterno's physical health has declined to the point where it could cause him to do something no one expected: retire of his own accord," writes Bob Smizik of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

I must admit that I am deeply saddened to watch age get the better of JoPa. The vigor and pep that has defined Coach Paterno for decades - present just a few months ago - is absent from the 81-year-old coach. The decline in his health has been notably rapid over the last two months.

Paterno is determined to coach the remainder of the season, be it from a golf cart or the sky box, but it is become more and more apparent that the all-time winningest coach is nearing the end of his long and distinguished run.

Are the Fighting Irish BCS-bound?

North Carolina will finish no worse than 9-3.

Has the Pac10 missed the boat on expansion?

Arizona (ARIZONA?!?!?!?!) sits atop the Pac10, but the real test lies ahead.

The Razorbacks lack the heart they had when HDN was on the sidelines.

Georgia had better be ready for Tennessee.

Your next SEC East Champs? Vandy.

Where does Auburn turn now that they have lost to Vandy? Maybe it's time for a trip to Cracker Barrel.

The Heisman may come down to an Oklahoma - Missouri matchup. (And if it does, put me in the Bradford camp.)

It's Texas - OU week, and both teams are ranked in the top five. Historically, that has not been a good sign for the Longhorns.

Rumors are spreading at Penn State after JoPa spent another game in the press box and appeared to have trouble with his balance in his press conference. Showing up in unmatched shoes didn't help his case, either.

FSU has three sophomores and two true freshman starting on the offensive line - and they won the game for the Noles against Miami.

Finally, Army no longer holds the nation's longest losing streak.

That is the day that the Oklahoma Sooners became the undisputed king of the Associated Press college football poll.

This week's #1 ranking marks the 96th time that OU has been ranked #1 by the AP, breaking a previous tie with Notre Dame at 95 weeks.

ALL TIME AP COLLEGE FOOTBALL #1 RANKINGS

1. Oklahoma (96 weeks)
2. Notre Dame (95 weeks)
3. Ohio State (93 weeks)
4. USC (90 weeks)
5. Nebraska (70)
6. Miami (68)
7. Florida State (59)
8. Texas (42)
9. Michigan (34)
10. Alabama (31)

Also notable, the Sooners have been ranked in 666 of the 976 AP football polls since 1936, or 68.2% of the published polls all-time.

As per SoonerSports.com, here's a rundown of Oklahoma's notable appearances in the AP college football top 25:

Weeks Ranked No. 1: 96 - No. 1 Nationally Weeks Ranked in Top 2: 192 - No. 1 Nationally Weeks Ranked in Top 5: 358 - No. 1 Nationally Weeks Ranked in Top 10: 494 Years Ranked in Preseason Poll: 50 (of 58 polls - preseason poll began in 1950) Years Ranked in Final Poll: 49 (of 72 polls) - No. 3 Nationally Average Rank in Final Poll: 7.39 (No. 1 Nationally) Years Ranked No. 1 in Final Poll: 7 (last in 2000, first in 1950) - No. 2 Nationally

A full list of Oklahoma's college football rankings in the AP poll is online at SoonerSports.com.

With the 45-3 victory over the Owls and the Seminoles loss to Wake Forest, Paterno now owns the all-time win record outright. Paterno has 376 career victories. Bowden has 375.

FSU (2-1) has played one fewer game than Penn State (4-0) so far this year, so it's possible that the leapfrogging could continue throughout the season.

Ironically, Bowden passed Paterno five years ago when the Noles beat Wake Forest. FSU's loss to the Demon Deacons prevented Bowden from holding serve and staying even with Paterno.