September 28, 2008

BCS Busting - Part I

This is the first of a series of threads related to potential BCS busting scenarios in order from most likely to the borderline unthinkable.

Part I looks at the possibility that a BCS non AQ conference member gets an automatic BCS bid this year. This is equivalent to asking which non BCS teams have a chance at getting into the top 12 in the final BCS standings. Each conference will be examined individually.

MWC
This conference BY FAR is drawing the attention of the media. One has to think ESPN would love nothing more than to sweep this rebellious conference that snubbed their noses to their money under the carpet, but with each win they remain in the national attention. Though TCU's loss to Oklahoma weakened this attention the MWC has 4 teams that can potentially get into the top 12.

BYU is already there and can get back in even with a loss. With TCU and Utah left on the road they have a difficult road ahead but they should still be favored in those games.

Utah is currently one spot out from having BCS at large eligibility and also can survive a single loss. With TCU and BYU at home and Air Force already behind them one could argue they may have the easiest road ahead, if not for Oregon State this Thursday.

TCU's loss to Oklahoma knocked them out of the top 25 but they are still receiving votes in all of the polls and are faring better in the computers than the polls. With wins over Utah and BYU they can crawl back into the top 12.

Air Force has the toughest road as they still face BYU and TCU. They are a VERY long shot, but they have not yet been eliminated from the discussion entirely. Their situation is similar to Ball State below.

C-USA
The other conference garnering attention this year has been Conference USA with East Carolina taking down pre-season favorites early in the season. With two losses it appears their BCS run is now over.

Tulsa takes the lead for the conference now as the only team with BCS potential. Houston and the championship game are their two biggest obstacles.

WAC
With C-USA's chances weakened don't be surprised to start hearing about the WAC. With three teams still having hope they are the likely winners if the MWC can't secure what is their's for the taking.

Boise State is at 18 in the polls and has Fresno State still on the horizon. An early loss can be overcome by a win over Fresno State.

Fresno State is 22 in the polls and will need to win out to get into the top 12. The loser of the Boise State Fresno State game, late in the year, will be knocked out of the top 12.

Louisiana Tech is the third WAC team that not yet been eliminated. With Boise State this weekend we will see if the 22-14 performance over Mississippi State was a fluke or if they are the real deal. Sitting without any votes, a win this week could jump them up to very near 25. A win over Fresno State would help them as well. Like Air Force and Ball State the odds are very long.

MAC
Before I discuss this next team I need to discuss a factor in the human polls that is important for this discussion in general. I call it the Cinderella bubble and this year it has been demonstrated beautifully, as it has shifted TWICE with the teams involved both winning for one of those shifts.

This bubble boosts the media darling about 5 spots in the rankings. BYU had the bubble to start the season. After week one the rise due to attrition they should have had was mitigated by the rise of several other potential Cinderella's. After week two they won and fell 2 spots because East Carolina took the bubble from them. A close game by East Carolina and strong across the board non BCS performance almost caused the bubble to pop after week 3, as voters began to wonder if the non AQ conferences really deserved the Cinderella status they were bestowing. Finally after week 4 a loss by East Carolina and a couple of shutouts returned the bubble squarely to BYU.

To make this clear, I am saying that BYU is currently over rated by a systematic component of the BCS standings that FAVORES the top BCS non AQ conference team. They would be ranked with Auburn and Ohio State if this bias was removed.

Ball State can make the top 12 if they become the benefactors of this bubble and remain undefeated. Think Hawaii last year...

Conclusion
With 9 teams still in the running for a BCS automatic bid, three of them in a position to withstand a loss between now and then, it seems more probable that a non AQ conference member will get an automatic bid than that they will all be left out.

This is far from certain because jst as the SEC has a propensity to knock themselves out of the top spot, so these Cinderellas and their conference members can knock themselves out of the top 12.

Comments:

BCS Busting - Part I
This is the first of a series of threads related to potential BCS busting scenarios in order from most likely to the borderline unthinkable. Part I looks at the possibility that a BCS non AQ conference member gets an automatic BCS bid this year. This is equivalent to asking which non BCS teams have a chance at getting into the top 12 in the final BCS standings. Each conference will be examined individually. MWC This conference BY FAR is drawing the attention of the media. One has to think ESPN would love nothing more than to sweep this rebellious conference that snubbed their noses to their money under the carpet, but with each win they remain in the national attention. Though TCU's loss to Oklahoma weakened this attention the MWC has 4 teams that can potentially get into the top 12. BYU is already there and can get back in even with a loss. With TCU and Utah left on the road they have a difficult road ahead but they should still be favored in those games. Utah is currently one spot out from having BCS at large eligibility and also can survive a single loss. With TCU and BYU at home and Air Force already behind them one could argue they may have the easiest road ahead, if not for Oregon State this Thursday. TCU's loss to Oklahoma knocked them out of the top 25 but they are still receiving votes in all of the polls and are faring better in the computers than the polls. With wins over Utah and BYU they can crawl back into the top 12. Air Force has the toughest road as they still face BYU and TCU. They are a VERY long shot, but they have not yet been eliminated from the discussion entirely. Their situation is similar to Ball State below. C-USA The other conference garnering attention this year has been Conference USA with East Carolina taking down pre-season favorites early in the season. With two losses it appears their BCS run is now over. Tulsa takes the lead for the conference now as the only team with BCS potential. Houston and the championship game are their two biggest obstacles. WAC With C-USA's chances weakened don't be surprised to start hearing about the WAC. With three teams still having hope they are the likely winners if the MWC can't secure what is their's for the taking. Boise State is at 18 in the polls and has Fresno State still on the horizon. An early loss can be overcome by a win over Fresno State. Fresno State is 22 in the polls and will need to win out to get into the top 12. The loser of the Boise State Fresno State game, late in the year, will be knocked out of the top 12. Louisiana Tech is the third WAC team that not yet been eliminated. With Boise State this weekend we will see if the 22-14 performance over Mississippi State was a fluke or if they are the real deal. Sitting without any votes, a win this week could jump them up to very near 25. A win over Fresno State would help them as well. Like Air Force and Ball State the odds are very long. MAC Before I discuss this next team I need to discuss a factor in the human polls that is important for this discussion in general. I call it the Cinderella bubble and this year it has been demonstrated beautifully, as it has shifted TWICE with the teams involved both winning for one of those shifts. This bubble boosts the media darling about 5 spots in the rankings. BYU had the bubble to start the season. After week one the rise due to attrition they should have had was mitigated by the rise of several other potential Cinderella's. After week two they won and fell 2 spots because East Carolina took the bubble from them. A close game by East Carolina and strong across the board non BCS performance almost caused the bubble to pop after week 3, as voters began to wonder if the non AQ conferences really deserved the Cinderella status they were bestowing. Finally after week 4 a loss by East Carolina and a couple of shutouts returned the bubble squarely to BYU. To make this clear, I am saying that BYU is currently over rated by a systematic component of the BCS standings that FAVORES the top BCS non AQ conference team. They would be ranked with Auburn and Ohio State if this bias was removed. Ball State can make the top 12 if they become the benefactors of this bubble and remain undefeated. Think Hawaii last year... Conclusion With 9 teams still in the running for a BCS automatic bid, three of them in a position to withstand a loss between now and then, it seems more probable that a non AQ conference member will get an automatic bid than that they will all be left out. This is far from certain because jst as the SEC has a propensity to knock themselves out of the top spot, so these Cinderellas and their conference members can knock themselves out of the top 12.