September 29, 2008

BCS Busting - Part II

With 9 potential BCS busters still lurking around one may ask what are the chances that 2 teams from outside the chosen leagues get in during the same year? While the rules only grant one guaranteed slot to the outsiders under certain situations, any team in the top 14 and 9 wins would be eligible for an at large bid.

Lets get one thing straight. No way is a BCS non AQ conference member getting the nod over an eligible BCS AQ conference member. This scenario considers the possibility that a second BCS non AQ conference member is the only eligible team left for the final BCS Bowl slot. While not the first time this has been brought up here at Fanblogs, the dominoes have fallen very well so far this year. Let us consider what is needed from various BCS factions.

BCS non AQ conference teams
They simply need to get 2 teams into the top 14. Most likely this would be one from the MWC and one from the WAC, but 2 MWC teams or a MWC team and Tulsa would not be surprising. This part is not unprecedented. 2004 saw both Utah and Boise State in the top 14. Without this the rest is meaningless.

SEC and Big 12
One requirement is that two BCS AQ conferences dominate the top 14. Since each can only send 2 teams to the BCS, each spot held by one of these teams is one less for the other BCS AQ conferences. These two conferences have done their part. If a team from these conferences is in the 15-25 range in the standings it is best for them to win. GO Vandy! GO Kansas! Go Oklahoma State!

Big 10+1 & Notre Dame
This section is where the biggest obstacle presents itself. First, Notre Dame needs 2 more losses to keep them from the top 14 and spoiling the situation. Second, the Big 10+1 needs to beat themselves out of the top 14. One team can be left standing their as long as they are the conference champion.

Penn State would need 3 losses to finish them. Wisconsin and Ohio State needs 2 more losses while Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois and Michigan are done with a single additional loss. This is conservative and less losses may accomplish the job. Since they all, mostly, still play each other the odds are not overwhelming. One team can be left standing their as long as they are the conference champion.

PAC 10
The only other real threat is the PAC 10. The PAC 10 has 2 teams in the top 25, USC and Oregon. These teams play each other and one will win. If USC wins, job done. If Oregon wins then either Oregon or USC need to lose another conference game and the other emerge as the conference champion. California and Oregon State need another loss to keep them out as well.

Big East
This conference only has one way to ruin the situation. If UCONN runs the table and USF's only loss comes to UCONN they would have two teams in the top 14. This might be the one situation where a BCS non AQ team might be able to get picked over a BCS AQ team.

ACC
The ACC has no way of getting 2 teams into the top 14. They will be lucky to get one there.

Double Edge Sword
While the BCS AQ conferences knock each other around the standings in their conference games, the BCS non AQ conferences could end up doing the same and eliminate the possibility of two BCS Bowls outright.

While certainly less likely than getting one team into a BCS Bowl, this is far from unimaginable at this time.

Posted by Ben Prather

Comments:

BCS Busting - Part II
With 9 potential BCS busters still lurking around one may ask what are the chances that 2 teams from outside the chosen leagues get in during the same year? While the rules only grant one guaranteed slot to the outsiders under certain situations, any team in the top 14 and 9 wins would be eligible for an at large bid. Lets get one thing straight. No way is a BCS non AQ conference member getting the nod over an eligible BCS AQ conference member. This scenario considers the possibility that a second BCS non AQ conference member is the only eligible team left for the final BCS Bowl slot. While not the first time this has been brought up here at Fanblogs, the dominoes have fallen very well so far this year. Let us consider what is needed from various BCS factions. BCS non AQ conference teams They simply need to get 2 teams into the top 14. Most likely this would be one from the MWC and one from the WAC, but 2 MWC teams or a MWC team and Tulsa would not be surprising. This part is not unprecedented. 2004 saw both Utah and Boise State in the top 14. Without this the rest is meaningless. SEC and Big 12 One requirement is that two BCS AQ conferences dominate the top 14. Since each can only send 2 teams to the BCS, each spot held by one of these teams is one less for the other BCS AQ conferences. These two conferences have done their part. If a team from these conferences is in the 15-25 range in the standings it is best for them to win. GO Vandy! GO Kansas! Go Oklahoma State! Big 10+1 & Notre Dame This section is where the biggest obstacle presents itself. First, Notre Dame needs 2 more losses to keep them from the top 14 and spoiling the situation. Second, the Big 10+1 needs to beat themselves out of the top 14. One team can be left standing their as long as they are the conference champion. Penn State would need 3 losses to finish them. Wisconsin and Ohio State needs 2 more losses while Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois and Michigan are done with a single additional loss. This is conservative and less losses may accomplish the job. Since they all, mostly, still play each other the odds are not overwhelming. One team can be left standing their as long as they are the conference champion. PAC 10 The only other real threat is the PAC 10. The PAC 10 has 2 teams in the top 25, USC and Oregon. These teams play each other and one will win. If USC wins, job done. If Oregon wins then either Oregon or USC need to lose another conference game and the other emerge as the conference champion. California and Oregon State need another loss to keep them out as well. Big East This conference only has one way to ruin the situation. If UCONN runs the table and USF's only loss comes to UCONN they would have two teams in the top 14. This might be the one situation where a BCS non AQ team might be able to get picked over a BCS AQ team. ACC The ACC has no way of getting 2 teams into the top 14. They will be lucky to get one there. Double Edge Sword While the BCS AQ conferences knock each other around the standings in their conference games, the BCS non AQ conferences could end up doing the same and eliminate the possibility of two BCS Bowls outright. While certainly less likely than getting one team into a BCS Bowl, this is far from unimaginable at this time.