September 30, 2008

BCS Busting - Part III

Ok, with a BCS non AQ conference member likely to get in and two possibly able to get in, is it possible for one to get to the national championship game? This is the ultimate individual team BCS Busting accomplishment.

The team with the best chance, by far, is BYU. I refuse to seriously consider Utah's chances until after October 11th, the earliest point when they could be significant. What would it take for BYU to get to the title game? For starters the teams ahead of them would need to lose. Also several SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 teams would likely pass them as the season wears on. Here are the additional losses each team needs to fall below an undefeated BYU.

2 losses needed
Oklahoma
Alabama
LSU
Missouri
Texas
Penn State

1 loss needed
USC
Texas Tech
Georgia
Florida
Auburn
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Kansas
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma State

Except for USC, the teams needing one loss should not be much of a problem. While 3 or 4 of the 6 teams needing two losses could easily get those losses, I would expect 2 or 3 to end up with 1 loss or less (not saying who, just estimating the count, as that is all that matters here). The more unlikely result, however, is that BYU must finish undefeated and a lot of games are left to be played.

The most likely result is that BYU losses a game and eliminates themselves from consideration. If this does not happen they could expect a #3 or #4 spot and could slip into the #2 spot under turbulent conditions at the top.

For BYU to get to the title game it would take a fortunate set of upsets leaving only them standing. That said, is that not how they won their last title?

Comments:

BCS Busting - Part III
Ok, with a BCS non AQ conference member likely to get in and two possibly able to get in, is it possible for one to get to the national championship game? This is the ultimate individual team BCS Busting accomplishment. The team with the best chance, by far, is BYU. I refuse to seriously consider Utah's chances until after October 11th, the earliest point when they could be significant. What would it take for BYU to get to the title game? For starters the teams ahead of them would need to lose. Also several SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 teams would likely pass them as the season wears on. Here are the additional losses each team needs to fall below an undefeated BYU. 2 losses needed Oklahoma Alabama LSU Missouri Texas Penn State 1 loss needed USC Texas Tech Georgia Florida Auburn Ohio State Wisconsin Kansas Vanderbilt Oklahoma State Except for USC, the teams needing one loss should not be much of a problem. While 3 or 4 of the 6 teams needing two losses could easily get those losses, I would expect 2 or 3 to end up with 1 loss or less (not saying who, just estimating the count, as that is all that matters here). The more unlikely result, however, is that BYU must finish undefeated and a lot of games are left to be played. The most likely result is that BYU losses a game and eliminates themselves from consideration. If this does not happen they could expect a #3 or #4 spot and could slip into the #2 spot under turbulent conditions at the top. For BYU to get to the title game it would take a fortunate set of upsets leaving only them standing. That said, is that not how they won their last title?