December 1, 2008

Can Florida catch Texas?

BCS GURU, who I can not touch in ability to prognosticate the BCS, raised this question in this weeks break down.

With #1 playing #4 and #3 sitting idle the NCG comes down to two games. Alabama vs Florida and Oklahoma vs Missouri.

Despite a lower rating Florida is the running favorite, generally running around 3:2 odds.
Oklahoma is more like 20:1 favorites.

If Oklahoma loses it will be Texas vs the SEC Champion.
If Oklahoma and Alabama both win they will play each other.

If Oklahoma and Florida win, the favorite in both games, things get interesting. Oklahoma would be in, but the common thought that they would play Florida could be mistaken. They would still need to jump Texas.

Last week Oklahoma needed 0.0084 BCS points to jump Texas for the BCS Championship. With a win over Oklahoma State and a Texas win over Texas A&M Oklahoma gained 0.0212 BCS points to take a 0.0128 lead and a trip to the Big 12 Championship game.

Florida, with a game against ranked FSU was able to gain 0.0082 BCS points on Texas, but still trails by 0.0372 BCS Points, almost twice the ground Oklahoma covered last week.

Florida plays BCS #1 and Texas is Idle, notoriously bad for losing ground. Teams don't usually lose BCS points during a bye week, they accumulate less than the teams around them from the attrition ahead of them. With Alabama falling there will be points to grab.

BCS GURU points out that the components of the BCS are aligned in a manner that favors Texas. Simply put, the computers strongly favor a Big 12 rematch and the polls favor Florida. Since Florida is already nearly maxed out in the polls the voters don't have much room to elevate them, even if they tried.

Florida could gain 0.02-0.03 of the difference in the computers, but are already ahead of Texas and Oklahoma in the polls. Florida would need to gain a point on Texas by roughly 1/3 of the voters. Since Florida is limited in upward mobility this will require Texas moving down.

Florida needs roughly 1/3 of the voters to move Oklahoma or Alabama over Texas. If one assumes the voters putting Oklahoma over Texas are as close as the points between them, this means convincing 2/3 of the voters who put Texas over Oklahoma that a win over Missouri is enough to change their minds in the matter. These are predominately voters who believe head to head matters most.

Nothing is final, and two games remain to be played. Florida's best odds are with a close game over Alabama and Oklahoma with plenty of style points over Missouri.

[END NOTE]
BCS GURU also indicates the Fiesta Bowl has expressed interest in the concept of facing off undefeated Utah and Boise State in the event of a BIG 12 rematch in the NCG. This would up Boise State's odds significantly.

Then there is also the thought of a Utah vs Florida AP title game... plus a story line.

Posted by Ben Prather

Comments:

Can Florida catch Texas?
BCS GURU, who I can not touch in ability to prognosticate the BCS, raised this question in this weeks break down. With #1 playing #4 and #3 sitting idle the NCG comes down to two games. Alabama vs Florida and Oklahoma vs Missouri. Despite a lower rating Florida is the running favorite, generally running around 3:2 odds. Oklahoma is more like 20:1 favorites. If Oklahoma loses it will be Texas vs the SEC Champion. If Oklahoma and Alabama both win they will play each other. If Oklahoma and Florida win, the favorite in both games, things get interesting. Oklahoma would be in, but the common thought that they would play Florida could be mistaken. They would still need to jump Texas. Last week Oklahoma needed 0.0084 BCS points to jump Texas for the BCS Championship. With a win over Oklahoma State and a Texas win over Texas A&M Oklahoma gained 0.0212 BCS points to take a 0.0128 lead and a trip to the Big 12 Championship game. Florida, with a game against ranked FSU was able to gain 0.0082 BCS points on Texas, but still trails by 0.0372 BCS Points, almost twice the ground Oklahoma covered last week. Florida plays BCS #1 and Texas is Idle, notoriously bad for losing ground. Teams don't usually lose BCS points during a bye week, they accumulate less than the teams around them from the attrition ahead of them. With Alabama falling there will be points to grab. BCS GURU points out that the components of the BCS are aligned in a manner that favors Texas. Simply put, the computers strongly favor a Big 12 rematch and the polls favor Florida. Since Florida is already nearly maxed out in the polls the voters don't have much room to elevate them, even if they tried. Florida could gain 0.02-0.03 of the difference in the computers, but are already ahead of Texas and Oklahoma in the polls. Florida would need to gain a point on Texas by roughly 1/3 of the voters. Since Florida is limited in upward mobility this will require Texas moving down. Florida needs roughly 1/3 of the voters to move Oklahoma or Alabama over Texas. If one assumes the voters putting Oklahoma over Texas are as close as the points between them, this means convincing 2/3 of the voters who put Texas over Oklahoma that a win over Missouri is enough to change their minds in the matter. These are predominately voters who believe head to head matters most. Nothing is final, and two games remain to be played. Florida's best odds are with a close game over Alabama and Oklahoma with plenty of style points over Missouri. [END NOTE] BCS GURU also indicates the Fiesta Bowl has expressed interest in the concept of facing off undefeated Utah and Boise State in the event of a BIG 12 rematch in the NCG. This would up Boise State's odds significantly. Then there is also the thought of a Utah vs Florida AP title game... plus a story line.