December 6, 2008

Who is #2?

Comments:

Who is #2?
Like election night in a close call we wait to see who will win this very close BCS race. Florida and Texas both have merits, both have detractions. The computers favor Texas, the voters Florida. Man vs Machine, who will win?

We could wait until 8 PM ET Sunday night, but we want to know now! As BCS components begin to come in we will get a closer picture of the winner. This table will be updated every two hours, starting at Noon ET, as values begin coming in. The column P/A indicates whether Projected or Actual values have been used. P-N/A indicates the results will not be released until after the BCS selection show.


BCS Component	UT Now	UF Now	Texas	Florida	Oklahoma	P/A	Uncertainty
Coaches Poll	0.9154	0.9082	0.9233	0.9711	0.9718	A	0
Harris Poll	0.9115	0.9271	0.9442	0.9772	0.9486	P	0.0037
Anderson and Hester	3	6	3	4	-2-	P	1
Richard Billingsley	-4-	-3-	-4-	-2-	-1-	P-N/A	0
Wes Colley*	-1-	4	-2-	3	1	P^	0
Kenneth Massey	3	6	2	4	1	P	1
Jeff Sagarin#	2	6	2	4	1	A	0
Peter Wolfe	2	-7-	2	-5-	1	P	1
Computer AVE	.94	.82	0.95	0.89	1.00	P	0.0173
BCS AVE	.9223	.8851	0.9392	0.9461	0.9735	P	0.0059
* Wes Colley offers the ability to add games, giving a better picture for this computer.
^ BCS GURU is stating that this result is official.
# The BCS uses Sagarin's ELO-CHESS results, displayed in red on their site.
% of BCS components released: 38.9%

Wes Colley's added games algorithm is used and the observation that Billiingsley is dropped across the board is used to reduce the error estimate.
This represents a 79.7% confidence Florida will be higher than Texas in the actual BCS standings.
The confidence that Oklahoma is #1 is 99.95%
The highest possible #4 would have a BCS AVE of 0.9012

No indication anywhere that it will not Florida, and displays of merchandise at official Orange Bowl sites, found in the comments below, build a strong case the BCS dodged this bullet. I suspect it may be closer than the projected values above, but not much.

An excellent independent analysis can be found here.

Update History:
Noon ET: Sagarin results updated.
1 PM ET: Coaches poll updated.
3 PM ET: No new data available.
5 PM ET: No new data available. (Or the BCS is blocking my IP ; )
7 PM ET: Gave up looking for the official data for the remaining BCS components.