January 8, 2009

The Big One: Oklahoma - Florida

It's finally here - the BCS National Championship game. Oklahoma vs Florida. As Florida Gator fan Ric Flair would say, WWWWOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

We've looked at what the college football bloggers think about the game, so here's *my* take, but first... a tale of the tape:

AT A GLANCE

Oklahoma (#3 offense, #63 defense, #1 redzone offense, #45 rz defense, #1 turnover margin, #110 penalties)

Florida (#17 offense, #8 defense, #8 redzone offense, #3 rz defense, #2 turnover margin, #102 penalties)

LEGACY

First Game: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 1895 UF - 1906

Bowls: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 24-16-1 UF - 16-19

Conference Championships: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 41 titles UF - 8 titles

Heisman Trophies: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 5 UF - 3

National Championships: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 7 UF - 2

OK... can we all agree that -- with the talent on the field and under the headsets... none of that tale of the tape stuff means diddly? Good... now, let's get to it.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

My opinion here, but the following are going to determine the national championship...

1) Oklahoma's Kick Coverage - The Sooners have struggled all year on kickoff coverage, which is surprising because they've scored so much that you would think that they would have gotten sufficient practice time. (Actually, OU has kicked off more than any other team this season - 119 times.) But the Sooners rank 105th nationally in kickoff coverage and leads the nation in allowing four returns for TDs this year. Brandon James and the Gators will light them up if OU doesn't tackle in space and work as one unit on special teams.

2) Florida's Stamina on Defense - We all know that OU scores a lot, but the real concern for UF isn't keeping up on the scoreboard, rather it's keeping up on defense for four quarters. The Sooners ran 1,036 plays on offense this year - significantly more than anyone else this season - with their no-huddle. The Gators aren't the deepest squad on defense, especially in the secondary, and the Sooners are going to look to limit substitutions by getting right back on the ball every time. It certainly wouldn't hurt for UF to get to Bradford, either. He's been sacked just 11 times all season. The Gators have to limit several OU drives to seven plays or less -- especially in the 2nd & 3rd quarters -- and then keep the ball in Tebow's hands to rest the defense.

3) Oklahoma's Defense - Two details are being overlooked with OU: The Sooners faced 10 of the top 50 offenses this year and only two teams scored more against OU than their season average. And eight of the 32 TDs scored against the OU defense game in the fourth quarter of blowouts - four in the final sixty seconds. Those two notes indicate OU is better than advertised on defense. Even still, Oklahoma is going to need some breaks to stop Florida... and it certainly wouldn't hurt for the OU offense to help out the D with points. The Gators are faster on the perimeter than OU expects, which will be extremely dangerous for a Sooner D game plan that will focus on stopping Tebow and the option game and forcing UF into passing situations. Oklahoma has to be very disciplined against the Gators... and a little Sooner Magic wouldn't hurt either.

I'll be shocked if this game is a blowout, but it's not going to be a low scoring affair. I'm going to go against the grain and say that a close game favors Oklahoma and that the winning team will score more than 34 points.

I said way back in August that Heisman winner Sam Bradford would lead the Sooners to the National Championship, so I'm sticking by that.... Oklahoma 41, Florida 30.

So... there you go. If you want to buy Sooners National Championship merchandise, it's on sale already here. Coincidence?

Comments:

The Big One: Oklahoma - Florida
It's finally here - the BCS National Championship game. Oklahoma vs Florida. As Florida Gator fan Ric Flair would say, WWWWOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!! We've looked at what the college football bloggers think about the game, so here's *my* take, but first... a tale of the tape:

AT A GLANCE

Oklahoma (#3 offense, #63 defense, #1 redzone offense, #45 rz defense, #1 turnover margin, #110 penalties) Florida (#17 offense, #8 defense, #8 redzone offense, #3 rz defense, #2 turnover margin, #102 penalties)

LEGACY

First Game: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 1895 UF - 1906 Bowls: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 24-16-1 UF - 16-19 Conference Championships: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 41 titles UF - 8 titles Heisman Trophies: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 5 UF - 3 National Championships: EDGE: OKLAHOMA OU - 7 UF - 2
OK... can we all agree that -- with the talent on the field and under the headsets... none of that tale of the tape stuff means diddly? Good... now, let's get to it.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

My opinion here, but the following are going to determine the national championship... 1) Oklahoma's Kick Coverage - The Sooners have struggled all year on kickoff coverage, which is surprising because they've scored so much that you would think that they would have gotten sufficient practice time. (Actually, OU has kicked off more than any other team this season - 119 times.) But the Sooners rank 105th nationally in kickoff coverage and leads the nation in allowing four returns for TDs this year. Brandon James and the Gators will light them up if OU doesn't tackle in space and work as one unit on special teams. 2) Florida's Stamina on Defense - We all know that OU scores a lot, but the real concern for UF isn't keeping up on the scoreboard, rather it's keeping up on defense for four quarters. The Sooners ran 1,036 plays on offense this year - significantly more than anyone else this season - with their no-huddle. The Gators aren't the deepest squad on defense, especially in the secondary, and the Sooners are going to look to limit substitutions by getting right back on the ball every time. It certainly wouldn't hurt for UF to get to Bradford, either. He's been sacked just 11 times all season. The Gators have to limit several OU drives to seven plays or less -- especially in the 2nd & 3rd quarters -- and then keep the ball in Tebow's hands to rest the defense. 3) Oklahoma's Defense - Two details are being overlooked with OU: The Sooners faced 10 of the top 50 offenses this year and only two teams scored more against OU than their season average. And eight of the 32 TDs scored against the OU defense game in the fourth quarter of blowouts - four in the final sixty seconds. Those two notes indicate OU is better than advertised on defense. Even still, Oklahoma is going to need some breaks to stop Florida... and it certainly wouldn't hurt for the OU offense to help out the D with points. The Gators are faster on the perimeter than OU expects, which will be extremely dangerous for a Sooner D game plan that will focus on stopping Tebow and the option game and forcing UF into passing situations. Oklahoma has to be very disciplined against the Gators... and a little Sooner Magic wouldn't hurt either. I'll be shocked if this game is a blowout, but it's not going to be a low scoring affair. I'm going to go against the grain and say that a close game favors Oklahoma and that the winning team will score more than 34 points. I said way back in August that Heisman winner Sam Bradford would lead the Sooners to the National Championship, so I'm sticking by that.... Oklahoma 41, Florida 30. So... there you go. If you want to buy Sooners National Championship merchandise, it's on sale already here. Coincidence?