September 21, 2009

(simulated) BCS Standings - Week 3

The latest simulated BCS Standings are available along with the accompanying commentary "Poofffffff ... Goes the Mountain West."

Bold: AQ conference champions
Italics: At Large conference members
Strike: Additional SEC and Big 12 members
Gap: Significant difference between teams

1) Alabama 0.8418

2) Texas 0.7698
3) Florida 0.7573
4) LSU 0.7491
5) California 0.7361
6) Boise State 0.6812
7) Penn State 0.6572
8) Miami (FL) 0.5981
9) Mississippi 0.5667
10) Cincinnati 0.5253
11) USC 0.4712
12) Oklahoma 0.4588
13) Virginia Tech 0.4421
14) Ohio State 0.4134
===BCS Eligibility line===

15) TCU 0.3449
16) North Carolina 0.3075

17) Oklahoma State 0.2364
18) Florida State 0.2221
19) Kansas 0.1932
20) Georgia 0.1806
===BCS Watch Line===
21) Houston 0.1806
22) Iowa 0.1751
23) Brigham Young 0.1539
24) Missouri 0.1539
25) Georgia Tech 0.1328

It should be noted that Washington, Pittsburgh and Auburn all have a high enough score that they would likely be ranked with that value later in the season when the dust begins to settle.

The SEC continues to lock down its second BCS berth but the ACC is making a run for the Big 12's strike through clause. It is looking like the question will be less like will two at large teams will have a chance and more like whether the PAC 10, Big 10 or Big East can get a team in position to compete with a team from these three conferences for a BCS berth.

The Big East continues its push to prove the preseason haters wrong by pushing further up the standings. Several Big East teams remain just outside the top 25.

The PAC 10 all of a sudden looks far more open than it did a week ago thanks to USC's traditional spotting the PAC 10 conference a game.

Boise State takes the lead for the AQ guaranteed to the remaining conferences. Unlike BYU last week, Boise State does not likely have the schedule strength to prevent teams from passing them into the NCG. Also unlike BYU they don't have any teams likely to pose a significant threat (Bowling Green and Hawaii might be interesting).

TCU might have a schedule strength to catch Boise State and the Poinsettia Bowl memories might be enough to convince voters to give them a little push over the top. With 10 games left, including Clemson, BYU and Utah, this is not going to be an easy road. Compared to this point last year the MWC has lost ground. More on this tomorrow.

Comments:

(simulated) BCS Standings - Week 3
The latest simulated BCS Standings are available along with the accompanying commentary "Poofffffff ... Goes the Mountain West." Bold: AQ conference champions Italics: At Large conference members Strike: Additional SEC and Big 12 members Gap: Significant difference between teams 1) Alabama 0.8418 2) Texas 0.7698 3) Florida 0.7573 4) LSU 0.7491 5) California 0.7361 6) Boise State 0.6812 7) Penn State 0.6572 8) Miami (FL) 0.5981 9) Mississippi 0.5667 10) Cincinnati 0.5253 11) USC 0.4712 12) Oklahoma 0.4588 13) Virginia Tech 0.4421 14) Ohio State 0.4134 ===BCS Eligibility line=== 15) TCU 0.3449 16) North Carolina 0.3075 17) Oklahoma State 0.2364 18) Florida State 0.2221 19) Kansas 0.1932 20) Georgia 0.1806 ===BCS Watch Line=== 21) Houston 0.1806 22) Iowa 0.1751 23) Brigham Young 0.1539 24) Missouri 0.1539 25) Georgia Tech 0.1328 It should be noted that Washington, Pittsburgh and Auburn all have a high enough score that they would likely be ranked with that value later in the season when the dust begins to settle. The SEC continues to lock down its second BCS berth but the ACC is making a run for the Big 12's strike through clause. It is looking like the question will be less like will two at large teams will have a chance and more like whether the PAC 10, Big 10 or Big East can get a team in position to compete with a team from these three conferences for a BCS berth. The Big East continues its push to prove the preseason haters wrong by pushing further up the standings. Several Big East teams remain just outside the top 25. The PAC 10 all of a sudden looks far more open than it did a week ago thanks to USC's traditional spotting the PAC 10 conference a game. Boise State takes the lead for the AQ guaranteed to the remaining conferences. Unlike BYU last week, Boise State does not likely have the schedule strength to prevent teams from passing them into the NCG. Also unlike BYU they don't have any teams likely to pose a significant threat (Bowling Green and Hawaii might be interesting). TCU might have a schedule strength to catch Boise State and the Poinsettia Bowl memories might be enough to convince voters to give them a little push over the top. With 10 games left, including Clemson, BYU and Utah, this is not going to be an easy road. Compared to this point last year the MWC has lost ground. More on this tomorrow.