October 5, 2009

(simulted) BCS Standings - Week 5

Ok. BCS Guru was delayed on releasing his standings due to the Colley Matrix Method rankings being posted late. They are up now, and I couldn't wait for the Guru.

BCS Guru uses the median of Massey's Ranking Comparison, where I used the mean. I also only drop a fraction of the highest and lowest rankings proportional to the fraction of rankings available (all but 1 now.)

If the gap between teams is less than 0.005 they may change order in the official simulated standings once they are released by the Guru.

Bold: BCS automatic qualifying conference leaders
Italics: Teams from a conference without an automatic qualification
Strike: Teams vying among other conference members for the second berth projected for their conference.
Gap: Significant difference in standings value.

1) Alabama 0.9291
2) Florida 0.9104
3) LSU 0.8783
4) Texas 0.8579

5) Boise State0.7714
6) Virginia Tech 0.7542
7) USC 0.7212

8) Cincinnati 0.6341
9) Iowa 0.6108
10) Ohio State 0.6083
11) TCU 0.5965

12) Miami(FL) 0.5322

13) Oregon 0.4007
14) Auburn 0.3958
=== BCS Eligibility Line ===
15) Penn State 0.3571
16) Kansas 0.3382
17) Oklahoma State 0.2940
18) Wisconsin 0.2682
19) Georgia Tech 0.2129
20) Oklahoma 0.2018
===BCS Watch Line ===
21) Ole Miss 0.2001
22) BYU 0.1927
23) Missouri 0.1885
24) Nebraska 0.1740
25) S. Florida 0.1612

Georgia, Stanford, Notre Dame and Arizona got enough points that they would likely be ranked once the data contracts.

The SEC maintained the top 3 spots, but will likely give one up this week as #2 Florida and #3 LSU battle for an early SEC lead.

Every BCS conference except the Big East has a second team ranked high enough to be eligible or just outside waiting for an opening. The PAC 10 is the only one with only one team in position to make a run for a second spot. This made it impossible to determine, other than the SEC, which BCS conferences are likely to get a second team in.

Two spots are available for the unmarked teams, provided they are not from the same conference.

The Houston loss has significantly reduced the chances that two teams from outside the automatic qualifying conferences will be eligible. With few out of conference games left it appears the possibility of seeing two teams from outside the big 6 in a BCS bowl is dead for 2009.

Boise State would likely need Alabama, Florida, LSU and Texas to lose 2 games each, VT to lose one and see USC lose to Oregon to have a chance at the NCG.

It should be pointed out that if Boise State gets to the NCG, two teams without automatic qualifications or the MWC (or WAC, more on that tomorrow) garners an automatic qualification in 2012 the BCS officials would stand proudly at the podium and raise these events high as proof the BCS works the way it is.

Far worse for the BCS would be having the #2 and #3 teams ranked very close together (especially if #3 beat #2 or #1 earlier that season) or the AP poll selecting another team as the champion. These are the true BCS busting scenarios.

Comments:

(simulted) BCS Standings - Week 5
Ok. BCS Guru was delayed on releasing his standings due to the Colley Matrix Method rankings being posted late. They are up now, and I couldn't wait for the Guru. BCS Guru uses the median of Massey's Ranking Comparison, where I used the mean. I also only drop a fraction of the highest and lowest rankings proportional to the fraction of rankings available (all but 1 now.) If the gap between teams is less than 0.005 they may change order in the official simulated standings once they are released by the Guru. Bold: BCS automatic qualifying conference leaders Italics: Teams from a conference without an automatic qualification Strike: Teams vying among other conference members for the second berth projected for their conference. Gap: Significant difference in standings value. 1) Alabama 0.9291 2) Florida 0.9104 3) LSU 0.8783 4) Texas 0.8579 5) Boise State0.7714 6) Virginia Tech 0.7542 7) USC 0.7212 8) Cincinnati 0.6341 9) Iowa 0.6108 10) Ohio State 0.6083 11) TCU 0.5965 12) Miami(FL) 0.5322 13) Oregon 0.4007 14) Auburn 0.3958 === BCS Eligibility Line === 15) Penn State 0.3571 16) Kansas 0.3382 17) Oklahoma State 0.2940 18) Wisconsin 0.2682 19) Georgia Tech 0.2129 20) Oklahoma 0.2018 ===BCS Watch Line === 21) Ole Miss 0.2001 22) BYU 0.1927 23) Missouri 0.1885 24) Nebraska 0.1740 25) S. Florida 0.1612 Georgia, Stanford, Notre Dame and Arizona got enough points that they would likely be ranked once the data contracts. The SEC maintained the top 3 spots, but will likely give one up this week as #2 Florida and #3 LSU battle for an early SEC lead. Every BCS conference except the Big East has a second team ranked high enough to be eligible or just outside waiting for an opening. The PAC 10 is the only one with only one team in position to make a run for a second spot. This made it impossible to determine, other than the SEC, which BCS conferences are likely to get a second team in. Two spots are available for the unmarked teams, provided they are not from the same conference. The Houston loss has significantly reduced the chances that two teams from outside the automatic qualifying conferences will be eligible. With few out of conference games left it appears the possibility of seeing two teams from outside the big 6 in a BCS bowl is dead for 2009. Boise State would likely need Alabama, Florida, LSU and Texas to lose 2 games each, VT to lose one and see USC lose to Oregon to have a chance at the NCG. It should be pointed out that if Boise State gets to the NCG, two teams without automatic qualifications or the MWC (or WAC, more on that tomorrow) garners an automatic qualification in 2012 the BCS officials would stand proudly at the podium and raise these events high as proof the BCS works the way it is. Far worse for the BCS would be having the #2 and #3 teams ranked very close together (especially if #3 beat #2 or #1 earlier that season) or the AP poll selecting another team as the champion. These are the true BCS busting scenarios.