October 12, 2009

(SIMULATED) BCS Standings - Week 6

This weeks (SIMULATED) BCS standings are now available. [Why didn't some one point out that I can't spell in the title a few weeks ago...] With all but the Dr. Wolfe poll available this is almost the real thing. Indeed, next week we will finally have the real deal. This also means an updated evaluation of the automatic qualification criteria over 2006-2009 will be produced.

Bold: BCS automatic qualifying conference leaders
Italics: Teams from a conference without an automatic qualification
Gap: Significant difference in standings value.

Gone by popular demand is the strike trough.

Teams not in bold are vying for one of three spots once the top teams in bold and the top team in italics are entered, with only one additional team allowed per conference.

1) Florida 0.9862 SEC
2) Alabama 0.9453 SEC

3) Virginia Tech 0.8262 ACC
4) Texas 0.8108 BIG 12
5) Boise State 0.7904 WAC

6) USC 0.7120 PAC 10
7) LSU 0.6995 SEC
8) Ohio State 0.6727 BIG 10
9 ) Cincinnati 0.6562 Big East
10) Iowa 0.6492 Big 10
11) TCU 0.6424 MWC

12) Miami (FL) 0.5584 ACC
13) Oregon 0.5413 PAC 10

14) Penn State 0.3504 BIG 10
===BCS Eligibility Line===
15) Kansas 0.3447 BIG 12
16) Nebraska 0.3359 BIG 12
17) Georgia Tech 0.3084 ACC
18) Oklahoma State 0.2915 B12

19) Brigham Young 0.2256 MWC
20) Oklahoma 0.2043 B12
===BCS Watch Line===
21) South Florida 0.1764 Big East
22) South Carolina 0.1460 SEC
23) Wisconsin 0.1389 BIG 10
24) Notre Dame 0.1004 Notre Dame
25) Auburn 0.0857 SEC

Utah also had enough points that they would expect a top 25 ranking in polls later in the season at their current value.

The SEC lost its hold on the top 3 spots as Florida knocked LSU all the way down to #7. Notre Dame and Auburn also make notable appearances in the poll this week.

This week I have decided to have the discussion better follow the selection order.

While the polls are fluid, the top two teams must play each other so anyone in the second pack would be expected to have a good chance at the #2 spot. The exception is Boise State who will likely fall into the next pack back before the end of the season. Florida or Alabama would also likely join that pack with a loss. A major gap exists between Oregon and Penn State that appears insurmountable for championship consideration.

The conference races are just getting underway and we will have a much better picture of these in a few weeks. We are now past the early season inter-conference battles and into the middle of the season where the conference dust begins to settle. The final five weeks will change focus again to those few top teams in the nation that are able to hold on to their top spots.

The conference averages are nearly set with most changes in standings being balanced within conferences, with one team moving up and the other down by similar amounts. One exception to this is the annual SEC-ACC rivalries that will give both a small boost rivalry weekend (provided each conference wins at least 1 of the four).

TCU has a fair chance at catching Boise State should both go undefeated. By fair I mean it should be close enough the voters would be able to swing it one way or another. I would have to see how far they fall after a loss to be sure, but a Boise State loss would likely put them at a disadvantage to a one loss MWC team.

Notre Dame needs to get into the top 8 to be guaranteed a spot. Conventional wisdom has them as a sure deal if they get into the top 14 and eligible. This week's game against USC should make or break them.

Any team in the top 25 has a good chance at getting above #14. Teams above the gap between Oklahoma and USF can do so with a respectable loss. Teams in the NCG hunt described above can do so with an ugly loss or a couple of respectable losses. Of the 6 automatic qualifying conferences only the Big East is a stretch to get a second eligible.

We would need to have BCS openings left after this point for other esoteric possibilities such as a second team from outside the AQ conferences being selected or havign the eligibility requirement changed to a top 18 ranking.

The debate this year is likely to be about who will get Kansas State-ed (our Missouri-ed if you don't remember back far enough to recall Kansas State's being out selected by lower ranked teams each of the first three years of the BCS) this year.

I am going to get my drawing board out and see if it is possible for the SEC to get three teams into the BCS before ruling this out yet. Basically someone other than Florida from the SEC East needs to win the SEC championship, with either the SEC West winner or Florida stepping in to play the SEC West runner up in the BCS NCG. VT, Texas and maybe a few other losses would be needed to pave the way.

This looks about as likely as Boise State or TCU making it to the championship game.

Imagine the stink if the SEC gets three teams into the BCS, the two who did not win the conference in the championship game and an undefeated Boise State or TCU is sent to the Sugar Bowl to play the SEC champion? Imagine if Boise State or TCU wins that game...

Ok, I'm awake again.

Comments:

(SIMULATED) BCS Standings - Week 6
This weeks (SIMULATED) BCS standings are now available. [Why didn't some one point out that I can't spell in the title a few weeks ago...] With all but the Dr. Wolfe poll available this is almost the real thing. Indeed, next week we will finally have the real deal. This also means an updated evaluation of the automatic qualification criteria over 2006-2009 will be produced. Bold: BCS automatic qualifying conference leaders Italics: Teams from a conference without an automatic qualification Gap: Significant difference in standings value. Gone by popular demand is the strike trough. Teams not in bold are vying for one of three spots once the top teams in bold and the top team in italics are entered, with only one additional team allowed per conference. 1) Florida 0.9862 SEC 2) Alabama 0.9453 SEC 3) Virginia Tech 0.8262 ACC 4) Texas 0.8108 BIG 12 5) Boise State 0.7904 WAC 6) USC 0.7120 PAC 10 7) LSU 0.6995 SEC 8) Ohio State 0.6727 BIG 10 9 ) Cincinnati 0.6562 Big East 10) Iowa 0.6492 Big 10 11) TCU 0.6424 MWC 12) Miami (FL) 0.5584 ACC 13) Oregon 0.5413 PAC 10 14) Penn State 0.3504 BIG 10 ===BCS Eligibility Line=== 15) Kansas 0.3447 BIG 12 16) Nebraska 0.3359 BIG 12 17) Georgia Tech 0.3084 ACC 18) Oklahoma State 0.2915 B12 19) Brigham Young 0.2256 MWC 20) Oklahoma 0.2043 B12 ===BCS Watch Line=== 21) South Florida 0.1764 Big East 22) South Carolina 0.1460 SEC 23) Wisconsin 0.1389 BIG 10 24) Notre Dame 0.1004 Notre Dame 25) Auburn 0.0857 SEC Utah also had enough points that they would expect a top 25 ranking in polls later in the season at their current value. The SEC lost its hold on the top 3 spots as Florida knocked LSU all the way down to #7. Notre Dame and Auburn also make notable appearances in the poll this week. This week I have decided to have the discussion better follow the selection order. While the polls are fluid, the top two teams must play each other so anyone in the second pack would be expected to have a good chance at the #2 spot. The exception is Boise State who will likely fall into the next pack back before the end of the season. Florida or Alabama would also likely join that pack with a loss. A major gap exists between Oregon and Penn State that appears insurmountable for championship consideration. The conference races are just getting underway and we will have a much better picture of these in a few weeks. We are now past the early season inter-conference battles and into the middle of the season where the conference dust begins to settle. The final five weeks will change focus again to those few top teams in the nation that are able to hold on to their top spots. The conference averages are nearly set with most changes in standings being balanced within conferences, with one team moving up and the other down by similar amounts. One exception to this is the annual SEC-ACC rivalries that will give both a small boost rivalry weekend (provided each conference wins at least 1 of the four). TCU has a fair chance at catching Boise State should both go undefeated. By fair I mean it should be close enough the voters would be able to swing it one way or another. I would have to see how far they fall after a loss to be sure, but a Boise State loss would likely put them at a disadvantage to a one loss MWC team. Notre Dame needs to get into the top 8 to be guaranteed a spot. Conventional wisdom has them as a sure deal if they get into the top 14 and eligible. This week's game against USC should make or break them. Any team in the top 25 has a good chance at getting above #14. Teams above the gap between Oklahoma and USF can do so with a respectable loss. Teams in the NCG hunt described above can do so with an ugly loss or a couple of respectable losses. Of the 6 automatic qualifying conferences only the Big East is a stretch to get a second eligible. We would need to have BCS openings left after this point for other esoteric possibilities such as a second team from outside the AQ conferences being selected or havign the eligibility requirement changed to a top 18 ranking. The debate this year is likely to be about who will get Kansas State-ed (our Missouri-ed if you don't remember back far enough to recall Kansas State's being out selected by lower ranked teams each of the first three years of the BCS) this year. I am going to get my drawing board out and see if it is possible for the SEC to get three teams into the BCS before ruling this out yet. Basically someone other than Florida from the SEC East needs to win the SEC championship, with either the SEC West winner or Florida stepping in to play the SEC West runner up in the BCS NCG. VT, Texas and maybe a few other losses would be needed to pave the way. This looks about as likely as Boise State or TCU making it to the championship game. Imagine the stink if the SEC gets three teams into the BCS, the two who did not win the conference in the championship game and an undefeated Boise State or TCU is sent to the Sugar Bowl to play the SEC champion? Imagine if Boise State or TCU wins that game... Ok, I'm awake again.