October 1, 2007
Fa-BOWL-sly Early Bowl Game Predictions
Several sites have started updating their 2007-2008 college football bowl game predictions, particularly in the wake of the big upsets this past weekend.
Among the biggies, CBS Sportsline and College Football News both have LSU vs USC for the national championship.
From there, it gets a little more messy, so let's dive in.
Bowl | Sportsline | CFN |
BCS | LSU - USC | LSU - USC |
Orange | Boston College - USF | FSU - West Virginia |
Fiesta | Oklahoma - Hawaii | Oklahoma - Wisconsin |
Sugar | Florida - Wisconsin | Florida - USF |
Rose | Ohio State - Cal | Ohio - State Cal |
Right away we get into the Orange Bowl debate of ACC Champs & Big East Champs.
Of the two options in the ACC - FSU & BC - I'm almost inclined to look at FSU. The Noles have dominated on defense since the second half of their opening game at Clemson, and the offense showed a little spark against Alabama once Xavier Lee took the helm. Meanwhile, Boston College struggled against 1-AA UMass. The Eagles allowed 4.5 yards/play against Massachusetts, who basically self-destructed with 17 penalties for 114 yards. UMass had as much penalty yardage as BC did rushing yardage (114 v 116). The Eagles are a sexy pick for some, but they have some problems on both sides of the ball that may be exposed as they get deeper into ACC play.
Which brings us to the Big East representative in the Orange Bowl - USF or West Virginia. Surprisingly, both of these prediction sites were updated AFTER the WVU-USF game, so... Sportsline thinks the Bulls run the table while CFN is calling it a fluke. Of the two, it's very easy for me to see USF as the Big East champ, particularly in the wake of Louisville's tank-job and Rutgers stumble this weekend. USF can (may?) win both of those games, although the Bulls have yet to run the Big East gauntlet unscathed. On the other hand, WVU has come back from dream-crushing losses before, so don't count out the 'Eers if USF can't put it away. Regardless, both sites have the two Big East teams making the BCS, so maybe it's al just nuance anyway.
Oklahoma remains as big sexy in the Big XII, but I don't know if Hawaii will get the at-large nod, especially if the Badgers can keep the nation's longest winning streak intact. (Neither site thinks they will, btw) If you're the Fiesta. you have to believe that Wisconsin's travel base plays a part in the decision process. Hawaii may be a mid-major (not that I'm outright calling their spot in the Fiesta a publicity stunt, per se), but the 'Bows won't/don't travel well. Game over, Hawaii - enjoy the Sheraton Bowl.
I completely agree with a Big East slot in the Sugar Bowl, provided that USF & WVU can win out. A one-loss West Virginia is a pretty good pick there, IMO. I'm a little surprised that both sites have a Florida in the Sugar Bowl, though.
I know that's a natural SEC site, but hear me out. With LSU going to the BCS Championship, you must conclude that LSU beats the Gators this weekend... and then goes on to... what?.. beat them a second time in the SEC Championship? So you've got a three-loss (at least) Florida team as an at-large into the Sugar Bowl? I'm not buying it myself.
But who does that leave?
We've established that the Pac10, Big 10, and Big East probably place their two teams, leaving the ACC, SEC, and Big XII as the potential BCS conferences - or you go with an at-large team. The city of New Orleans needs that second sell-out financially this year, and the Sugar Bowl will stay true to it's cozy relationship with the BCS conferences, eschewing an at-large bid.
And the answer is? I have no clue, but - again - I don't think it's a three-loss Florida team. An interesting scenario would be a two-loss Kentucky team (with losses only to LSU... twice)?? Not sure that the networks get terribly excited about WVU-UK game, but it sure would be fun in Moonshine Country. Maybe it's the ACC runner up (Va Tech with two losses?) or a Big XII school if they can keep it to two losses (Nebraska? Texas?)
As I said, it's messy. So, what's your take? Who's going BCS bowling?
Comments:
1st_and_NOLE
posted on October 1, 2007 10:31 PM — 71.14.108.232 — link — abuse?
said:
Oh, I will say this, Florida may be playing for their "SEC Season" next weekend.
Consider this, IF Florida loses to LSU, that would be two conference loses. After two SEC loses, they'd still have to play USC, UGA, and an impressive KY team. They may lose 1 or 2 of those 3 as well. It's not far fetched for UF to have 3 or 4 conference loses alone.
UF needs to beat LSU badly in that regard.
gatorhippy
posted on October 2, 2007 6:52 AM — 70.121.185.56 — link — abuse? said:
First & Nole (#2):
Allow me to repeat myself for the umpteenth time this season...
UF is NOT a top ten team...
3-4 losses is a minimum...
Personally, coming in to the season I knew this...
I think there are a lot of people who did not...
This year is about geting ready for the next two/three seasons...
You don't play 30 true freshmen and expect to compete for a MNC much less the conference...
1st_and_NOLE
posted on October 2, 2007 8:06 AM — 71.14.108.232 — link — abuse? said:
gatorhippy #5:
I disagree. I think UF is talented enough to at least make the SECCG. If UF wins next week against LSU they'll be in the driver's seat in the East with their only SEC loss coming from the West. If UF can somehow get past LSU next week, I think they'll lose one more SEC game (either KY or SC) and they'll be right in the hunt to win the East. Beating the #1 team in the nation will be a HUGE boost to UF's confidence and can easily set the tempo the rest of the season. IF Florida can beat LSU, they're in the driver's seat. I'm not saying Florida will pull the upset but, they've got the potential firepower to do it.
OU Fan said:
posted on October 2, 2007 8:28 AM — 139.139.51.70 — link — abuse?
I don't know if I like these predictions. Oklahoma playing another Mid-major team in the Fiesta bowl might not be good thing. Even though I think Oklahoma could stomp a mudhole in Hawaii if they played eachother this season, my predictions are not always right. I mean after all, I thought OU would destroy Boise State last season but that prediction was obviously wrong. I do think Oklahoma versus Wisconsin would be interesting. GO SOONERS! Beat TEXAS!
posted on October 2, 2007 12:28 PM — link — abuse?Kevin Donahue
said:
Correction - Hawaii only gets an AUTOMATIC bid if they are the WAC champion, ranked in the top 12 of the BCS, and ranked higher in the BCS than any other mid-major champ, or if they are the WAC champ, ranked higher in the BCS than any other mid-major champ, ranked in the top 16 BCS, and ranked above any other BCS conference champ.
That's how the auto-bid works for mid-majors.
It's not as simple as top 12 is in. You have to be crowned the champ of your conference, and you have to be the highest ranked mid-major.
So... hypothetically... if Akron was MAC champ and ranked #10 and Hawaii was WAC champ and ranked #12, only Akron would get auto-bid into the BCS.
shiguy said:
posted on October 2, 2007 12:39 PM — 157.182.42.182 — link — abuse?
personally i think WVU will make it to a BCS bowl regardless. either USF will not be able to finish the conference or they'll go to an at large bid..provided they win out the rest of the season. if they loose another say at rutgers then it's not as probable. i hope for their sake it's not simply a rematch against florida state from the bowl they played against them several years back. it would be good redemption since FSU won the game, but i personally would prefer if WVU was to face off against an opponante that they almost never have played from the other 5 conferences say from B11 or B12.
TampaGator said:
posted on October 2, 2007 12:44 PM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
Gatorhippy:
What gives?
Yeah, we've got some issues to hammer out, but 3-4 losses? You're not even giving the Gators a shot at SEC? Granted, we're not likely to reapeat as NC, but we control our own destiny with the conference--and we CAN beat anyone. LSU is the biggest obstacle--we CAN beat them. UGA? USC? UK? Vandy? It MAY not happen, but we will at least hang with every last one of them, and could beat every one too (FSU is a coin toss, but no bearing on conference).
I understand tempering one's expectations, but you can never count the Gators out of the SEC, until they've been mathematically eliminated.
GO GATORS!!
gatorhippy
posted on October 2, 2007 1:19 PM — 209.16.115.5 — link — abuse? said:
T-Gator (#11):
No worries...
I got faith on one side...
But I'm a realist too...
While I expect them too make it...
I'm not going to be totally dissappointed if they don't...
But 3-4 losses at a minimum is VERY possible depending on how they adapt the offense and omitting the penalties at key points...
gatorhippy
posted on October 2, 2007 3:54 PM — 209.16.115.5 — link — abuse? said:
T-Gator (#12):
AND especially if we can't stay the #^@% out of jail...
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/orl-bk-gators100207,0,2808724.story?coll=orl_tab01_layout
WTF, Tony...
Do you not have a #&%@ing brain in your head, son?
I like the part where Tony runs off at the mouth the other day where Meyer "kind of was lenient" lately...
Bet you won't be saying that now, Tony...
Moron...
TampaGator said:
posted on October 2, 2007 5:41 PM — 205.188.116.136 — link — abuse?
Gatorhippy:
Aggghhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! That sucks royally.
It's hard to fault the kid on this one though. Felony Burglary??? For going after his girlfriend's car --presumably with her permission??? Doesn't burglary entail taking ANOTHER'S property without the property owners' consent?
Forget the felony charge--it will never stick. The tow company's stake was $76.00--which makes it petit theft.
"...Joiner then returned the car to the compound and waited for police to arrive..."
Second, he realized he screwed up, replaced the vehicle, and peacefully awaited the police-- adjudication will likely be withheld (assuming no priors).
Third: What the hell is he doing out on the town at 4:30 AM? ...and what pray tell is he doing, calling Meyer out for slacking on discipline??
Long term prospects on this deal I think are good; short term however, are awful. Dissent in the wake of AU loss...
Obligatory on-point comment: I'd love to see UF-USF in Naw'lins!
...hell, I'd love to see UF v. anyone in Naw'lins!
OU v. Wisconsin--very intriguing.
GO GATORS!!Autigerman said:
posted on October 2, 2007 5:46 PM — 72.205.222.229 — link — abuse?
I say Florida more likely to face Ron Zook in the capital One bowl wouldnt that be fun. No way they make a BCS bowl i figure at least 3 losses maybe 4. Could even be a cotton bowl bid.
Dont see them winning the east of SEC either.
They will lose at least one time to an east contender and get blown out at LSU.Zac said:
posted on October 6, 2007 5:44 PM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
Hey, C-Dogg, glad to see you back. Hope you and yours are well.
I've been a little AWOL hither and yon because of work. Next week gets worse; I'll be at the plant 06:00-18:30 every friggen day. So, guys (not that I expect to see any tears shed), you won't hear much from me.
Early polls, early bowl predictions, they're all the same; not even worth the powder to blow them to blazes. It's fun to speculate, but that's like opinions & butt cheeks, everyone's got em.
I wouldn't mind seeing WVU matched up against the likes of BC, FL, OK, OR, or WI (to name a few). While it would be nice to see WVU in a BCS bowl, another trip to the Gator Bowl would be fine with me. Six down, seven to go.
As for S FL, Cinci, and Rutgers, I think they do just fine. I don’t know that 2 B.E. teams will go to the BCS, but at least 5, maybe even 6, will go bowling. Not bad for only an 8 team conference.
Please note that all comments are subject to the Fanblogs Comment Policy.
1st_and_NOLE
said:
posted on October 1, 2007 10:12 PM — 71.14.108.232 — link — abuse?I'm NOT sold on FSU winning the ACC or even making the ACCCG. Yeah, we're improving offensively from week to week and I expect it to only get better with XL starting.
HOWEVER.
FSU still needs help. Clemson holds the tie break and, to be honest, their schedule is a joke compared to FSU's. Clemson is set up much nicer with an easier schedule. FSU would need Clemson to lose maybe 3 ACC games because FSU has to travel @ VT, BC, and WF. Not to mention, still has Miami @ home.
We've got the potential to make some serious noise but that schedule still scares the crap out of me.
If we blow the doors off NCST next week I'll feel much, much better about our chances.