June 18, 2008

Potential Non-BCS National Champion?

I have often pointed out that, since the lowering of the BCS bar, any non-BCS team could get to a BCS bowl if they went undefeated. Hawaii proved that last year, with a Sunbelt like schedule, and earned a BCS stomping from a weak schedule during a WAC off year.

If a non-BCS team defeats a top 25 BCS team they can get there with one close conference loss, if they are from the MWC, WAC, C-USA or MAC. This, like the catagories here at Fanblogs, excludes the Sunbelt.

Two BCS teams typically in the top half of their conference can be substituted for one in the top 25.

A non-BCS team on the mainland that has recently ended in the top 25 can be substituted for one of the two BCS teams. Sorry, Hawaii doesn't count. This is guaranteed for teams in the MWC, WAC and C-USA due to conference scheduling.

Admitting that 2008 was an atypical year, 10-2 BYU was #17 in the final BCS standings last year. This was between 9-4 Tennessee and 9-3 Wisconsin. If they won either of those two games they could even have been ranked higher than Hawaii. The Tulsa loss, rightfully, killed them.

A non-BCS team should be expected to earn a spot in a BCS Bowl.

Can a non-BCS team win it all? What would it take for a non-BCS team to get to the top 2 in the final BCS standings? Assuming a non-BCS team has won the national championship, lets play their season backwards to see how they started.

Two undefeated BCS teams destroys this possibility. That has only happened once in the BCS era, 2004.

Bowls: Non-BCS team wins the BCS National championship game. Good job team!
Championship week:
(MAC, CUSA) Team wins conference championship, moves up from #3 to #2.
(MWC, SunBelt, WAC) Bye week, team stays at #2
Rivalry Week:
Team defeats rival. Moves from #3 to rank described above. A Sunbelt team would need to be #2 here.

For the next few week attrition is the dominating factor in the standings. 2008 saw roughly double the attrition rates of years past. 2004 significantly less.

Week 13: #3
Week 12: #3
Week 11: #4-#3
Week 10: #4
Week 9: #5-#4
Week 8: #5
Week 7: #6-#5, first BCS standings released.
Week 6: #8-#6 Poll average. Usually a non-BCS team does better in the computers than the polls.
Week 5: #9-#8 Conference schedule is beginning and a bye is remaining.
Week 4: #10-#9
Week 3: #11-#12
Week 2: #13-#14
Week 1: #16-#14
Preseason: #16

Conference adjustments: MWC+2, WAC +1, MAC 0, C-USA 0, Sunbelt -5.

Non-conference adjustments:
Playing a BCS top 25: +3
Playing a team with name recognition: +1

Preseason ratings are crucial to a non-BCS teams national championship chances.

In 2004 Utah started #20. By this method they would have needed to be #19 that year. Stepping through the Utah schedule week by week using this method befor 2004 I had them hypothetically ending at #4 that year (that page appears to have been lost). 3 BCS teams went undefeated, 3 more only had one loss and Utah was #6 in the final BCS standings. Maybe this method is slightly generous, but 2004 was not a generous year for non BCS teams at the top. If the polls had gotten shaken up like they did in 2008 Utah would have been in the national championship game.

BYU is consistantly placing in the top 20 in 2008 preseason rankings. They could be expected to start in the top 15. A good win against visiting UCLA and a better than expected Washington could put them over the top.

Fresno State, with Rutgers, UCLA and Wisconsin, could be in striking range. They would need a top 20 start, which is not unlikely.

S. Mississippi, with Auburn, Marshall and Boise State, could get there as well, starting from a top 20 spot.

UCF, with Miami (Fl) and Boston College, has a chance from a preseason top 20 ranking.

All of these teams will be near the top of the others recieving votes column, if not ranked in the top 25. BYU will have a chance this year. Fresno State will be close to the border line. USM and UCF would need serious help, such as a weekly top 5 shuffle like we had last year.

If Utah and BYU are both undefeated when they meet, it would be for a BCS berth, possibly the national championship. Utah would likely be #7 if undefeated at this point in the season. A win over #2 BYU could put them about #4. If BYU is not undefeated Utah would likely end #5. Ok, this may be an accurate description of the results of these events, but time to get back to reality...

Could 2008 be the year a non-BCS team appears in the BCS national championship game? Although a long shot, it is not unthinkable. With a schedule including UCLA, Washington, TCU, and Utah, for BYU the biggest obsticle may be hubris.

The posibility exists this year. I don't think it will happen. This is the year we will see the first one loss non-BCS team get into the BCS. And they will win.

Comments:

Potential Non-BCS National Champion?
I have often pointed out that, since the lowering of the BCS bar, any non-BCS team could get to a BCS bowl if they went undefeated. Hawaii proved that last year, with a Sunbelt like schedule, and earned a BCS stomping from a weak schedule during a WAC off year. If a non-BCS team defeats a top 25 BCS team they can get there with one close conference loss, if they are from the MWC, WAC, C-USA or MAC. This, like the catagories here at Fanblogs, excludes the Sunbelt. Two BCS teams typically in the top half of their conference can be substituted for one in the top 25. A non-BCS team on the mainland that has recently ended in the top 25 can be substituted for one of the two BCS teams. Sorry, Hawaii doesn't count. This is guaranteed for teams in the MWC, WAC and C-USA due to conference scheduling. Admitting that 2008 was an atypical year, 10-2 BYU was #17 in the final BCS standings last year. This was between 9-4 Tennessee and 9-3 Wisconsin. If they won either of those two games they could even have been ranked higher than Hawaii. The Tulsa loss, rightfully, killed them. A non-BCS team should be expected to earn a spot in a BCS Bowl. Can a non-BCS team win it all? What would it take for a non-BCS team to get to the top 2 in the final BCS standings? Assuming a non-BCS team has won the national championship, lets play their season backwards to see how they started. Two undefeated BCS teams destroys this possibility. That has only happened once in the BCS era, 2004. Bowls: Non-BCS team wins the BCS National championship game. Good job team! Championship week: (MAC, CUSA) Team wins conference championship, moves up from #3 to #2. (MWC, SunBelt, WAC) Bye week, team stays at #2 Rivalry Week: Team defeats rival. Moves from #3 to rank described above. A Sunbelt team would need to be #2 here. For the next few week attrition is the dominating factor in the standings. 2008 saw roughly double the attrition rates of years past. 2004 significantly less. Week 13: #3 Week 12: #3 Week 11: #4-#3 Week 10: #4 Week 9: #5-#4 Week 8: #5 Week 7: #6-#5, first BCS standings released. Week 6: #8-#6 Poll average. Usually a non-BCS team does better in the computers than the polls. Week 5: #9-#8 Conference schedule is beginning and a bye is remaining. Week 4: #10-#9 Week 3: #11-#12 Week 2: #13-#14 Week 1: #16-#14 Preseason: #16 Conference adjustments: MWC+2, WAC +1, MAC 0, C-USA 0, Sunbelt -5. Non-conference adjustments: Playing a BCS top 25: +3 Playing a team with name recognition: +1 Preseason ratings are crucial to a non-BCS teams national championship chances. In 2004 Utah started #20. By this method they would have needed to be #19 that year. Stepping through the Utah schedule week by week using this method befor 2004 I had them hypothetically ending at #4 that year (that page appears to have been lost). 3 BCS teams went undefeated, 3 more only had one loss and Utah was #6 in the final BCS standings. Maybe this method is slightly generous, but 2004 was not a generous year for non BCS teams at the top. If the polls had gotten shaken up like they did in 2008 Utah would have been in the national championship game. BYU is consistantly placing in the top 20 in 2008 preseason rankings. They could be expected to start in the top 15. A good win against visiting UCLA and a better than expected Washington could put them over the top. Fresno State, with Rutgers, UCLA and Wisconsin, could be in striking range. They would need a top 20 start, which is not unlikely. S. Mississippi, with Auburn, Marshall and Boise State, could get there as well, starting from a top 20 spot. UCF, with Miami (Fl) and Boston College, has a chance from a preseason top 20 ranking. All of these teams will be near the top of the others recieving votes column, if not ranked in the top 25. BYU will have a chance this year. Fresno State will be close to the border line. USM and UCF would need serious help, such as a weekly top 5 shuffle like we had last year. If Utah and BYU are both undefeated when they meet, it would be for a BCS berth, possibly the national championship. Utah would likely be #7 if undefeated at this point in the season. A win over #2 BYU could put them about #4. If BYU is not undefeated Utah would likely end #5. Ok, this may be an accurate description of the results of these events, but time to get back to reality... Could 2008 be the year a non-BCS team appears in the BCS national championship game? Although a long shot, it is not unthinkable. With a schedule including UCLA, Washington, TCU, and Utah, for BYU the biggest obsticle may be hubris. The posibility exists this year. I don't think it will happen. This is the year we will see the first one loss non-BCS team get into the BCS. And they will win.