August 25, 2008

Is Clemson a BCS Championship contender?

Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel recently wrote an interesting article about the five common attributes that all of the 10 BCS champions have held.

They include:

- A dominant run defense; allowing fewer than 100 yds/game (with 6 of the ten champs ranking in the top 10).

- A positive turnover margin.

- Superior offensive & defensive lines with a sack/sacks-allowed margin greater than 10.

- An efficient QB. Average pass efficiency of 146.2 with a top 20 rank.

- At least one game-breaker.

Stewart Mandel pointed out that not every champion has exceeded every category. But if they lagged in one category, they excelled in another.

Mandel went on to analyze how the AP top 5 stack up against the NC criteria.

Since Clemson is widely picked to win the ACC, and should be favored in every game on its schedule, there is some buzz in Tigertown about the possibility of a BCS national championship (NC). So I thought it would be interesting to see how Clemson stacks up against Mandel's NC specification.

Pass efficiency: In 2007, returning QB, Cullen Harper ranked 22nd, and had an efficiency rating of 141.0. Since all of Harper's primary receivers are back (and the O-line isn't expected to be any worse), it is reasonable to expect similar or better passing efficiency. Therefore Clemson will likely meet this NC spec.

Turnovers: In 2007 Clemson recovered 25 turnovers while giving up just 12. That's +2.1 ratio, far exceeding the NC requirement. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect Clemson to be in positive territory for 2008 and meet this NC spec.

At least one game-breaker: With running backs James Davis & CJ Spiller, and with wide receivers Jacoby Ford, & Aaron Kelly all returning, Clemson seems to easily meet this NC spec with. One could argue that Davis and Kelly don't count as game-breakers. But the two speedsters, Spiller & Ford, are big play guys that can take it to the house on any touch. In 2007, Ford had 18.2 yds/catch (12.3yds/carry), Kelly had 12.3 yards/catch, Spiller had 5.3 yards/carry (with 20% of his carries going for 10 yards or more), and Davis had 5.0 yds/carry.

Superior offensive & defensive lines: In 2007, Clemson failed this NC spec with a negative sack/sack-allowed margin. Clemson had 27 sacks, while allowing 35. Clemson's defensive line was good but not “superior”. Clemson's offensive line was marginal. The 2008 forecast is for the defensive line to be about as good or maybe a bit better. The offensive line will have 4 new starters and is a big question mark. The O-line may be as good as or better than that of 2007, but it is unlikely to be "superior", therefore, in 2008, it is unlikely that Clemson will meet this NC spec.

Dominant run defense: In 2007, Clemson allowed 118.3 rushing yards per game (considerably more than the 96.7 yd average of the 10 BCS champs). And Clemson ranked 23rd in rushing defense (which is pretty far out of the top 10). In 2008, with a relatively inexperienced linebacker corps, it is unlikely that Clemson will meet this NC requirement.

So does Clemson have a chance at the NC based on Mandel's specs? Well, remember that a team can be deficient in one area if it's superior in another area. Based on 2007 results, Clemson is likely to be deficient in two areas (run defense and superior lines), but could be superior in two areas (turnovers and game-breakers). But Mandel's spec doesn't allow for being deficient in two areas. It's pretty easy to predict that Clemson will meet the specs in pass efficiency and game-breakers. But turnovers, line-play, and run defense are much harder to predict. The bottom line is that (if you believe Mandel's spec) Clemson's chances depend largely on the line-play and the new LB corps. It doesn't seem likely that Clemson will meet the NC spec (let alone win the NC), but it's possible.

So what the heck, Tigertown... Buzz on.

Posted by RazzMaTazz

Comments:

Is Clemson a BCS Championship contender?
Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel recently wrote an interesting article about the five common attributes that all of the 10 BCS champions have held. They include: - A dominant run defense; allowing fewer than 100 yds/game (with 6 of the ten champs ranking in the top 10). - A positive turnover margin. - Superior offensive & defensive lines with a sack/sacks-allowed margin greater than 10. - An efficient QB. Average pass efficiency of 146.2 with a top 20 rank. - At least one game-breaker. Stewart Mandel pointed out that not every champion has exceeded every category. But if they lagged in one category, they excelled in another. Mandel went on to analyze how the AP top 5 stack up against the NC criteria. Since Clemson is widely picked to win the ACC, and should be favored in every game on its schedule, there is some buzz in Tigertown about the possibility of a BCS national championship (NC). So I thought it would be interesting to see how Clemson stacks up against Mandel's NC specification. Pass efficiency: In 2007, returning QB, Cullen Harper ranked 22nd, and had an efficiency rating of 141.0. Since all of Harper's primary receivers are back (and the O-line isn't expected to be any worse), it is reasonable to expect similar or better passing efficiency. Therefore Clemson will likely meet this NC spec. Turnovers: In 2007 Clemson recovered 25 turnovers while giving up just 12. That's +2.1 ratio, far exceeding the NC requirement. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect Clemson to be in positive territory for 2008 and meet this NC spec. At least one game-breaker: With running backs James Davis & CJ Spiller, and with wide receivers Jacoby Ford, & Aaron Kelly all returning, Clemson seems to easily meet this NC spec with. One could argue that Davis and Kelly don't count as game-breakers. But the two speedsters, Spiller & Ford, are big play guys that can take it to the house on any touch. In 2007, Ford had 18.2 yds/catch (12.3yds/carry), Kelly had 12.3 yards/catch, Spiller had 5.3 yards/carry (with 20% of his carries going for 10 yards or more), and Davis had 5.0 yds/carry. Superior offensive & defensive lines: In 2007, Clemson failed this NC spec with a negative sack/sack-allowed margin. Clemson had 27 sacks, while allowing 35. Clemson's defensive line was good but not “superior”. Clemson's offensive line was marginal. The 2008 forecast is for the defensive line to be about as good or maybe a bit better. The offensive line will have 4 new starters and is a big question mark. The O-line may be as good as or better than that of 2007, but it is unlikely to be "superior", therefore, in 2008, it is unlikely that Clemson will meet this NC spec. Dominant run defense: In 2007, Clemson allowed 118.3 rushing yards per game (considerably more than the 96.7 yd average of the 10 BCS champs). And Clemson ranked 23rd in rushing defense (which is pretty far out of the top 10). In 2008, with a relatively inexperienced linebacker corps, it is unlikely that Clemson will meet this NC requirement. So does Clemson have a chance at the NC based on Mandel's specs? Well, remember that a team can be deficient in one area if it's superior in another area. Based on 2007 results, Clemson is likely to be deficient in two areas (run defense and superior lines), but could be superior in two areas (turnovers and game-breakers). But Mandel's spec doesn't allow for being deficient in two areas. It's pretty easy to predict that Clemson will meet the specs in pass efficiency and game-breakers. But turnovers, line-play, and run defense are much harder to predict. The bottom line is that (if you believe Mandel's spec) Clemson's chances depend largely on the line-play and the new LB corps. It doesn't seem likely that Clemson will meet the NC spec (let alone win the NC), but it's possible. So what the heck, Tigertown... Buzz on.