August 23, 2003

2003 Conference USA Preview

As the kickoff to the 2003 season approaches, it's time to take a look at the teams from Conference USA. C-USA has gotten a lot of publicity during the offseason. From speculation that the C-USA could expand or have members absorbed by larger conferences all the way to talk of at least one C-USA having the potential to run the table on an undefeated season. 2003 is certainly going to be a great year as C-USA begins to push itself toward the upper tier of college football.

Here's my thoughts for a season preview and projected finish. Drop your thoughts in the comments section!

1.		TCU (12-0 overall, 8-0 C-USA)
The Horned Frogs return as defending champions and rip through the conference this year. One of the top defenses in the country continues to improve. Exceptional speed on defense and great penetration into the opponent's backfield. The Horned Frog offense just started to click last season at the end of the year when QB Tye Gunn and RB Lonta Hobbs broke into the rotation. The TCU offense has always been run-based. 2003 will showcase the Frogs outstanding running game and Gunn will spread the field early & often. One of the most explosive teams around. TCU goes undefeated, but doesn't sniff a BCS bid without a lot of bloodletting within the top conferences. If the "top" teams have 2 losses, look for TCU to sneak into a BCS, but the Frogs go undefeated, grab another C-USA title, and race off for a bowl game in Memphis for the Liberty Bowl.
2		Southern Mississippi (10-2 overall, 7-1 C-USA)
If it weren't for TCU, Southern Miss would still be ruling the roost in C-USA. The Eagles return with (yet another) strong defensive unit for 2003 and it will carry the team. The offense is a little underpowered, but that seems to be the case for Southern Miss for a few seasons now. The Eagles will try to open up the passing game a little more, so it's up to the O-Line to come through and offer up better pass blocking. Running the ball should be no problem for the line and good backs. The defense is back with all it's stars including stud LB Rod Davis, Etric Pruitt and six other returning starters. USM held opponents to 336 yds/game and should be at least as good this year. Look for Southern Miss to have a breakout year on the national stage, with a very legit shot at dethroning the Horned Frogs for the C-USA title, and out of conference wins against Nebraska and Alabama.
3		Cincinnati (7-5 overall, 5-3 C-USA)
With just five starters returning on either side of the ball, the Bearcats are really going to have to work to extend their streak of bowl appearances. Despite losing a lot of skill on offense, UC still looks to be pretty explosive. It may begin with running backs and receivers by committee, but there are some talented players that will start to separate themselves as they mature this season. QB Gino Guidugli has to make better decisions and not turn the ball over with interceptions. On defense, Cincy is (maybe) a little undersized but very quick -- the Bearcats should be solid everywhere with good starters and decent depth. The season opener is a conference game against East Carolina, so the Bearcats will have to strap it on early.
3		Louisville (7-5 overall, 5-3 C-USA)
The Cardinals look to be a very dangerous team this year. With Ragone gone, the expectations are much lower for UL but the talent is still in place. The offense still has future star Eric Shelton to run behind a line that showed steady improvement last season. The defense never quite got the credit it deserved last year, but it got strong as the season went on as well. It'll be up to a few young guns to instantly star on defense and lead Louisville. The corners and linebacking corps will be great. Don't overlook Louisville or the Cardinals will sneak up on you.
3		Tulane (7-5 overall, 5-3 C-USA)
The questions surrounding Tulane football this year could have derailed this entire program. Tulane is (for now) committed to maintaining a D-IA football program. On the field, the Green Wave should explode. Ten starters return, and that doesn't count star receiver Roydell Williams coming back from an early season injury. It'll all be up to the line. After giving up 42 sacks, it needs to keep quarterback J.P. Losman clean so he has time to connect with his loaded receiving corps. Running back Mewelde Moore is one of the best backs in college football. The defensive production improved last year by leaps and bounds allowing 120 fewer yards per game. The problem for Tulane is that most of last year's defense is gone. With only three returning starters, it could be very ugly at times for the Green Wave defense. There's great athleticism everywhere, but no depth on the line or secondary. The linebacking corps is going to have to carry things for a while.
6		Memphis (6-6 overall, 4-4 C-USA)
Rest easy Tiger fans, there is no reason to think that 2003 won't be a better year for Memphis. With a new defensive system, the Tiger should greatly improve over last year's swiss cheese run defense. The front seven has to be more physical upfront, but they're experienced and could grow into something strong as the year goes on. On offense, the Tigers have an enviable backfield with a great quarterback and a wonderful stable of backs. It will be up to the offensive line and the young receivers to step up quickly and provide balance for the offense.
7		East Carolina (4-8 overall, 4-4 C-USA)
The first four games are against teams that went to bowl games last year, so ECU will find out very quickly what they have this year. New coach John Thompson has his hands full to right the ship on defense where the Pirates gave up more than 450 yds/gm and lost over half the starters. On offense, QB Paul Troth needs targets. The receivers have to step up and to give ECU a decent passing attack to balance what should be a very strong running game with RB Art Brown and a bruising offensive line.
8		UAB (5-7 overall, 3-5 C-USA)
The Blazers of UAB have a young team (just 5 seniors), but now they will have to mature and gel together. QB Darrell Hackney and WR Roddy White are one of the top tandems in Conference USA. The RBs are big and experienced, but each has to be more productive. On defense, the Blazers will play a more traditional 4-3, but there were heavy losses on the defensive line for the second year in a row, and you have to wonder how much talent is still there. The schedule will provide a huge measuring stick, including non-conference games versus Georgia and South Carolina.
9		South Florida (4-7 overall, 2-6 C-USA)
USF may be entering Conference USA one year too late. Last year's squad led the country in takeaways, creating a ridiculous +3.3 turnover margin and had QB Marquel Blackwell leading the offense with Kawika Mitchell heading the defense. That's all changed. Offensively, the Bulls will still spread the field with a no-huddle offense. They will keep more than a few C-USA defensive coordinators up at night. QB Ronnie Banks should do well in the system and has good backs and receivers. On defense, South Florida has to replace the entire defensive line, two corners, and a LB. That's a lot of talent to replace. The Bulls have some young replacements, but it's unreasonable to expect this defense to maintain the pace of last year's squad. The Bulls are a great addition to C-USA and will be a lot of fun to watch.
10		Houston (3-9 overall, 1-7 C-USA)
High school coaching legend Art Briles is in as new coach at Houston. He will try to bring a very unique offense to Cougar-land, but it may be too much, too soon without some additional talent on offense. Briles is already having to cope with the loss of RB Joffrey Reynolds, who set the C-USA rushing record last season. On defense, eight starters return to a unit that struggled for most of 2002. There might not be a lot of wins for Briles in his rookie season, but he can start off in style by beating crosstown rival Rice in the opener.
10		Army (0-12 overall, 0-8 C-USA)
You could sum up last year's Army team in a very simply by explaining they gave up more points than anyone else in the conference and scored less than anyone else in the conference. This year's squad will be tasked with reducing that margin to a more manageable level. The first step in fixing the problem is deciding which of the five QBs that played last year is going to lead the Black Knights. The next step is sustaining a few drives and keeping their own defense off the field. Many of last years games were lost through simple attrition and fatigue on the part of the defense. The fault lies squarely at the feet of the offense, however, who left their teammates on the field for much of their games last season. Army has four home games to open the season and can try to gel on offense in hopes of pulling out a win.

Game of the Year -- TCU at Southern Miss, Nov 20
Offensive Player of the Year -- TCU RB Lonta Hobbs
Defensive Player of the Year -- Southern Miss LB Rod Davis
C-USA Coach of the Year -- TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson

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