May 29, 2009

Will C-USA get their day?

Back when the BCS started the WAC was splitting into two conferences due to over expansion and there was great uncertainty over the future of each. This left C-USA as the most stable and competitive conference without an automatic qualification.

The loss of Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida in 2005 to the Big East put a significant dent in C-USA's elite teams. TCU, who had been a member since 2001, left in 2005 for the MWC and C-USA then picked up UCF, Marshall, Rice, SMU, UTEP and Tulsa to form the conference that exists today.

The MWC has emerged as a serious contender for an eventual BCS automatic qualification but even the WAC has sent two teams to the BCS. Will C-USA get their turn at the BCS tables? What chance does C-USA have of making a BCS bowl this year?

The conference championship game is not included in conference rankings by C-USA.
Unless specified a team will likely need to go undefeated to get into the top 14.
For consideration of BCS slots for C-USA, Boise State might as well be a MWC team already.
C-USA East
East Carolina 9-3 (7-1 C-USA)
OOC: Appalachian State, @West Virginia, @North Carolina, Virginia Tech
West: @SMU, Rice, @Tulsa

West Virginia and Virginia Tech will be formidable tests but, as last year showed, they are not insurmountable. North Carolina and Tulsa will also present some problems.

East Carolina certainly has a BCS caliber schedule and has room to make waves again this year. An undefeated season, capped off with a C-USA conference championship game win, would put East Carolina in contention with an undefeated MWC team for a BCS spot. They should be in the top 14 even with one loss.

Memphis 8-4 (5-3 C-USA)
OOC: Ole Miss, @Middle Tennessee State, Tennessee-Martin, @Tennessee
West: UTEP, @Houston, @Tulsa

Ole Miss looks to be a beast this year but Tennessee looks very beatable.

Southern Mississippi 7-5 (5-3 C-USA)
OOC: Alcorn State, Virginia, @Kansas, @Louisville
West: Tulane, @Houston, Tulsa

Other than Alcorn State, the other three OOC games look very compelling.

UCF 5-7 (4-4 C-USA)
OOC: Samford, Buffalo, Miami (FL), @Texas

This might be as aggressive a schedule as East Carolina's. UCF is not East Carolina.

Marshall 5-7 (4-4 C-USA)
OOC: Southern Illinois, @Virginia Tech, Bowling Green, @West Virginia
West: @Tulane, SMU, @UTEP

The game against Bowling Green might be compelling, the rest not so much. Like ECU and UCF they have a schedule to make a statement.

UAB 4-8 (2-6 C-USA)
OOC: @Troy, @Texas A&M, @Ole Miss, Florida Atlantic
West: Rice, SMU, @UTEP

Ole Miss again is going to be tough this year. Texas A&M is going to take all they have to get an upset. Troy and Florida Atlantic should be close games.

C-USA West
Tulsa 9-3 (7-1 C-USA)
OOC: @New Mexico, @Oklahoma, Sam Houston State, Boise State
East: East Carolina, @Southern Miss, Memphis

New Mexico should be close and they should give Boise State a run for their money. A one loss Tulsa could possibly climb into BCS consideration.

Rice 8-4 (6-2 C-USA)
OOC: @Texas Tech, @Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Navy
East: @UAB, @East Carolina, UCF

I think Texas Tech is a bit much for them to handle but the other three games should be excellent.

Houston 6-6 (4-4 C-USA)
OOC: Northwestern State, @Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, @Mississippi State
East: Southern Miss, @UCF, Memphis

While Houston might something out of their game at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State should be interesting regardless.

UTEP 3-9 (2-6 C-USA)
OOC: Buffalo, Kansas, @New Mexico State, @Texas
East: @Memphis, UAB, Marshall

I would love to see UTEP beat Kansas, but it is a long shot. Buffalo will get a test at UTEP. New Mexico State should be a close game.

Tulane 3-9 (1-7 C-USA)
OOC: BYU, McNeese State, @Army, @LSU
East: Marshall, @Southern Miss, @UCF

Tulane should beat Army and could put a wrinkle in BYU's plans.

SMU 4-8 (1-7 C-USA)
OOC: Stephan F. Austin, @Washington State, @TCU, Navy
East: @UAB, East Carolina, @Marshall

I like SMU's chances vs. Washington State and Navy.

OOC
BCS: 25 games. While C-USA has more games against the BCS conference members than the MWC more of these are not very competitive. C-USA should be in the ball park of 8 or 9 wins over BCS conference members.

MWC: 3. With games against the top MWC teams, plus a fourth against Boise State, C-USA has an opportunity to make a statement that it is the top conference outside the Big 6. Only ne of those looks to be competitive.

Total: 48 games. I expect C-USA to go 23-25 though a winning record is not out of the question by any means.

Conclusion
Where the MWC focuses on scheduling competitive teams they can beat, C-USA plays a more challenging schedule that pushed their envelope. Part of this is that the MWC has distanced themselves from C-USA in the middle of the pack making the common opponents appear to be more challenging in C-USA.

With a few exceptions, C-USA teams need to go undefeated to even get into BCS consideration. East Carolina, Tulsa and UCF can get their with a loss but would be behind a one loss MWC team or Boise State. An undefeated MWC team or Boise State is ahead of them in any case.

This makes for very long odds for a C-USA team to make a BCS bowl this year. Even if a team performs they will likely be outranked by a MWC team or Boise State. This is not likely to change in the near future.

The best chance for C-USA to improve their odds is for the MWC to expand by adding Boise State and become an automatic qualifying conference. C-USA would then be the top non automatic qualifying conference once again, pending losses to the Big East. C-USA should still be able to draw the top WAC, MAC and Sun Belt teams to build a strong conference, even with a few losses.

Comments:

Will C-USA get their day?
Back when the BCS started the WAC was splitting into two conferences due to over expansion and there was great uncertainty over the future of each. This left C-USA as the most stable and competitive conference without an automatic qualification. The loss of Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida in 2005 to the Big East put a significant dent in C-USA's elite teams. TCU, who had been a member since 2001, left in 2005 for the MWC and C-USA then picked up UCF, Marshall, Rice, SMU, UTEP and Tulsa to form the conference that exists today. The MWC has emerged as a serious contender for an eventual BCS automatic qualification but even the WAC has sent two teams to the BCS. Will C-USA get their turn at the BCS tables? What chance does C-USA have of making a BCS bowl this year? The conference championship game is not included in conference rankings by C-USA. Unless specified a team will likely need to go undefeated to get into the top 14. For consideration of BCS slots for C-USA, Boise State might as well be a MWC team already. C-USA East East Carolina 9-3 (7-1 C-USA) OOC: Appalachian State, @West Virginia, @North Carolina, Virginia Tech West: @SMU, Rice, @Tulsa West Virginia and Virginia Tech will be formidable tests but, as last year showed, they are not insurmountable. North Carolina and Tulsa will also present some problems. East Carolina certainly has a BCS caliber schedule and has room to make waves again this year. An undefeated season, capped off with a C-USA conference championship game win, would put East Carolina in contention with an undefeated MWC team for a BCS spot. They should be in the top 14 even with one loss. Memphis 8-4 (5-3 C-USA) OOC: Ole Miss, @Middle Tennessee State, Tennessee-Martin, @Tennessee West: UTEP, @Houston, @Tulsa Ole Miss looks to be a beast this year but Tennessee looks very beatable. Southern Mississippi 7-5 (5-3 C-USA) OOC: Alcorn State, Virginia, @Kansas, @Louisville West: Tulane, @Houston, Tulsa Other than Alcorn State, the other three OOC games look very compelling. UCF 5-7 (4-4 C-USA) OOC: Samford, Buffalo, Miami (FL), @Texas This might be as aggressive a schedule as East Carolina's. UCF is not East Carolina. Marshall 5-7 (4-4 C-USA) OOC: Southern Illinois, @Virginia Tech, Bowling Green, @West Virginia West: @Tulane, SMU, @UTEP The game against Bowling Green might be compelling, the rest not so much. Like ECU and UCF they have a schedule to make a statement. UAB 4-8 (2-6 C-USA) OOC: @Troy, @Texas A&M, @Ole Miss, Florida Atlantic West: Rice, SMU, @UTEP Ole Miss again is going to be tough this year. Texas A&M is going to take all they have to get an upset. Troy and Florida Atlantic should be close games. C-USA West Tulsa 9-3 (7-1 C-USA) OOC: @New Mexico, @Oklahoma, Sam Houston State, Boise State East: East Carolina, @Southern Miss, Memphis New Mexico should be close and they should give Boise State a run for their money. A one loss Tulsa could possibly climb into BCS consideration. Rice 8-4 (6-2 C-USA) OOC: @Texas Tech, @Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Navy East: @UAB, @East Carolina, UCF I think Texas Tech is a bit much for them to handle but the other three games should be excellent. Houston 6-6 (4-4 C-USA) OOC: Northwestern State, @Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, @Mississippi State East: Southern Miss, @UCF, Memphis While Houston might something out of their game at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State should be interesting regardless. UTEP 3-9 (2-6 C-USA) OOC: Buffalo, Kansas, @New Mexico State, @Texas East: @Memphis, UAB, Marshall I would love to see UTEP beat Kansas, but it is a long shot. Buffalo will get a test at UTEP. New Mexico State should be a close game. Tulane 3-9 (1-7 C-USA) OOC: BYU, McNeese State, @Army, @LSU East: Marshall, @Southern Miss, @UCF Tulane should beat Army and could put a wrinkle in BYU's plans. SMU 4-8 (1-7 C-USA) OOC: Stephan F. Austin, @Washington State, @TCU, Navy East: @UAB, East Carolina, @Marshall I like SMU's chances vs. Washington State and Navy. OOC BCS: 25 games. While C-USA has more games against the BCS conference members than the MWC more of these are not very competitive. C-USA should be in the ball park of 8 or 9 wins over BCS conference members. MWC: 3. With games against the top MWC teams, plus a fourth against Boise State, C-USA has an opportunity to make a statement that it is the top conference outside the Big 6. Only ne of those looks to be competitive. Total: 48 games. I expect C-USA to go 23-25 though a winning record is not out of the question by any means. Conclusion Where the MWC focuses on scheduling competitive teams they can beat, C-USA plays a more challenging schedule that pushed their envelope. Part of this is that the MWC has distanced themselves from C-USA in the middle of the pack making the common opponents appear to be more challenging in C-USA. With a few exceptions, C-USA teams need to go undefeated to even get into BCS consideration. East Carolina, Tulsa and UCF can get their with a loss but would be behind a one loss MWC team or Boise State. An undefeated MWC team or Boise State is ahead of them in any case. This makes for very long odds for a C-USA team to make a BCS bowl this year. Even if a team performs they will likely be outranked by a MWC team or Boise State. This is not likely to change in the near future. The best chance for C-USA to improve their odds is for the MWC to expand by adding Boise State and become an automatic qualifying conference. C-USA would then be the top non automatic qualifying conference once again, pending losses to the Big East. C-USA should still be able to draw the top WAC, MAC and Sun Belt teams to build a strong conference, even with a few losses.