Here are my thoughts.

Conference tie breakers used:
Settle it on the field
- Head to head among tied teams
- Results vs opponents within the same division with the best record, repeated through the team with the worse record.

These two are the most consistently used in college football. Head to head chooses to let the dispute be settled on the field at the price of selecting the team that lost to the worst them. These tiebreakers favor an inconsistent team that plays up to a good team and down to a bad team over a team that plays at a consistent level throughout the season. It leans towards the upper end of a teams performance level.

At least with head to head you are using games between the teams. Head to head is also very effective for divisions where every team plays each other, never failing with a tie of an even number of teams and often succeeding when three teams are tied. If head to head fails the decent through the standings reduces to eliminating the team who lost to the best team, leaving the teams that lost to the worst teams. In cases where a group of teams beat all outsiders this method will always fail.

While head to head is here to stay, the decent down the standings should go.

Common Opponents
- Record against teams within the same division
- All common conference opponents

Comparing results vs common opponents is one of the most sound tiebreakers and should not be used more heavily.

A great, seldom used, tiebreaker
- Combined Record of non-division opponents

If head to head and division records are don't break the tie, the difference in cross over games can be used to break a tie. The team that beat the teams with the highest combined conference win loss record is a meaningful tiebreaker that would have a high degree of success.

Ineffective tiebreakers
- Eliminate teams not eligible for post season play
- All non-division opponents
- Results vs all conference opponents with the best record, repeated through the team with the worse record

Teams not eligible for post season play are usually eliminated a priori.

If a tie exists and is not broken by the record in the division, how will the non division opponents not be tied? Here a descent down the standings might make sense, but is inferior to the combined record of non-division opponents.

Interest of the conference
- Best overall W-L Record
- Least number of FCS teams played

These tiebreakers favor teams that benefit the perceived strength of the conference. Also teams have a direct say in controlling the number of FCS teams played.

Parity
- Eliminate the team with the most recent championship appearance

I like this tiebreaker as it gives a slight advantage to the underdog. It is also supported by the rich tradition of the Rose Bowl.

NFL Tiebreakers
- Total Point Head to head
- Total TD's in all games played

College football has a strong allergy to factors that make margin of victory a part of any procedure, as it is perceived as anti-sportsmanship.

Coin Flip
- BCS Standings
- BCS standings, unless top two are within 5 rankings, then head to head of top two in the BCS standings.
- Draw

The BCS standings are slightly better than luck of the draw, and almost guarantee the tie will be broken. The SEC rule is viewed as superior, but it would be even better to use the BCS to eliminate the lowest ranked team and reapply the rules.

Ideal Tie Breaker Procedures
When a group of tied teams is reach the procedures are followed until the tie is broken. The procedure is then repeated from the top.

1) Head to Head record of tied teams.
2) Division record of tied teams.
3) Record of tied teams vs all common conference opponents.
4) Combined conference record of non-division conference opponents.
5) Eliminate the team with the lowest BCS standings.
6) Eliminate team with most recent championship game appearance.
7) Draw lots publicly.

Cases in point
For the Big 12 south this would fall to #5, as the three teams would be tied at #4 at 11-13. #5 would eliminate Texas Tech, then Texas would win the head to head.

For the PAC 10, if USC loses to UCLA, this would fall to #5. #2, #3 and #4 are meaningless in this case. Oregon State would be eliminated, leaving USC as the PAC 10 champion. Currently the tie would be broken by California, the highest team in the PAC 10 standings they did not all beat. Oregon would be eliminated, crowning Oregon State.

These are the only possible ties this year that can't be settled by head to head.

SYRACUSE: Oregon OC Chip Kelly is on the Orange's radar and will interview for the head coaching position this week. Illinois offensive coordinator Mike Locksley interviewed for the position last week, according to Rivals.com. Other likely candidates are Buffalo coach Turner Gill, East Carolina coach Skip Holtz, Florida assistant head coach Steve Addazio and New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Doug Marrone.

WASHINGTON: Fresno State head coach Pat Hill took a flight to Washington yesterday. Rumors are swirling that Hill is a candidate for the Huskies coaching job. The Huskies had been wanting Lane Kiffen, but Tennessee has secured his services. Other potential candidates are Dennis Franchione, Texas Tech coach Mike Leach, and Cincinnati's Brian Kelly.

WYOMING: Missouri OC Dave Christensen has interviewed for the head coaching job and is thought to be the #1 candidate. A decision may come very quickly for the Cowboys.

CLEMSON: I'm hearing rumors that Swinney will be interviewed on Monday and may be named the head coach as early as Tuesday. One name that isn't a rumor is former Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer, who confirmed his interest this week.

MISSISSIPPI STATE: The somewhat shocking resignation of Sly Croom has the Bulldogs looking for a new head coach. MSU will hire a search firm to conduct a national search, however Bulldogs AD Greg Byrne hinted that he would prefer a coach with knowledge of the SEC.

SAN DIEGO STATE: Could former Kansas and Minnesota head coach Glenn Mason be in the mix for the Aztecs? He's available and has a history of turning teams around, even if it is only for a season or two at a time.

But... the past is the past. THIS time, I think I got it right. (And I don't have any teams playing in more than one bowl!)

So... without further ado... my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 22, 2008.

Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule

BCS National Championship Game - Florida vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs USC
Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs Penn State
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs Utah
Orange Bowl - Boston College vs Cincinnati

New Mexico - Colorado State vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg - Rutgers vs. Memphis
Las Vegas - BYU vs. Arizona
EagleBank - Clemson vs Navy
New Orleans - Southern Miss vs Troy
Poinsettia - TCU vs Fresno State*
Hawaii - Hawaii vs Western Michigan*
Motor City - Ball State vs Minnesota
Meineke Car Care - UNC vs West Virginia
Champs Sports - Miami vs Iowa
Emerald - Maryland vs San Jose State*
Independence - LaTech* vs U La-La*
Papajohns.com - Pitt vs Arkansas State*
Alamo - Northwestern vs Oklahoma State
Humanitarian - Boise State vs Wake Forest
Texas - Northern Illinois* vs Rice
Holiday - Cal vs Missouri
Armed Forces - Air Force vs Tulsa
Sun - Oregon vs Notre Dame**
Music City - Kentucky vs VaTech
Insight - Wisconsin vs Kansas
Peach/Chick-fil-A - LSU vs Georgia Tech
Outback - Michigan State vs South Carolina
Capital One - Ohio State vs Georgia
Gator - Florida State vs Nebraska
Cotton - Texas Tech vs Ole Miss
Liberty - Houston vs Vandy
International - UConn vs Buffalo
GMAC - ECU vs Central Michigan

* At large teams shown with asterisk when partner conference aren't projected to have enough eligible teams.
** Yeah, I know. I said ND was a lock for the Gator. They suck and so do I.

The full list of college football bowl games is online.

Bowl slots available: 64
Teams eligible: 63
Teams on the bubble: 19
Teams not eligible: 38

BOWL ELIGIBLE
Air Force (8-4)
Alabama (11-0)
Arizona (6-5)
Ball State (11-0)
Boise State (11-0)
Boston College (8-3)
Buffalo (7-4)
BYU (10-2)
California (7-4)
Central Michigan (8-3)
x-Cincinnati (9-2)
Colorado State (6-6)
Connecticut (7-3)
East Carolina (7-4)
Florida (10-1)
y-Florida State (8-3)
Fresno State (6-5)
Georgia (9-2)
Georgia Tech (8-3)
Houston (7-4)
Iowa (8-4)
Kansas (6-5)
Kentucky (6-5)
LSU (7-4)
Louisiana Tech (7-4)
Maryland (7-4)
Miami, Fla. (7-4)
Michigan State (9-3)
Minnesota (7-5)
Mississippi (7-4)
Missouri (9-2)
Navy (6-4)
Nebraska (7-4)
Nevada (6-5)
North Carolina (7-4)
Northern Illinois (6-5)
Northwestern (9-3)
Notre Dame (6-5)
Ohio State (10-2)
Oklahoma (10-1)
Oklahoma State (9-2)
Oregon (8-3)
Oregon State (8-3)
Penn State (11-1)
Pittsburgh (7-3)
Rice (8-3)
Rutgers (6-5)
San Jose State (6-6)
South Carolina (7-4)
South Florida (6-4)
USC (9-1)
Texas (10-1)
Texas Tech (10-1)
TCU (10-2)
Troy (6-4)
Tulsa (9-2)
Utah (12-0)
Vanderbilt (6-5)
Virginia Tech (7-4)
Wake Forest (6-5)
West Virginia (7-3)
Western Michigan (9-2)
Wisconsin (7-5)

ON THE BUBBLE
Akron (5-6)
Arizona State (4-6)
Arkansas State (5-5)
Auburn (5-6)
Bowling Green (5-6)
y-Clemson (6-5)
Colorado (5-6)
Florida Atlantic (5-6)
Florida International (4-6)
x-Hawaii (6-5)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5)
Louisville (5-6)
Memphis (5-6)
Middle Tennessee (5-6)
North Carolina State (5-6)
Southern Miss (5-6)
UCLA (4-6)
UTEP (5-6)
Virginia (5-6)

NOT ELIGIBLE
Arkansas (4-7)
Army (3-8)
Baylor (4-7)
Central Florida (4-7)
Duke (4-7)
Eastern Michigan (2-9)
Idaho (2-10)
Illinois (5-7)
Indiana (3-9)
Iowa State (2-10)
Kansas State (5-7)
Kent State (3-8)
Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)
Marshall (4-7)
Miami of Ohio (2-9)
Michigan (3-9)
Mississippi State (4-7)
New Mexico (4-8)
New Mexico State (3-8)
North Texas (1-10)
Ohio (3-8)
Purdue (4-8)
San Diego State (2-10)
SMU (1-10)
Stanford (5-7)
Syracuse (2-9)
Temple (4-7)
Tennessee (4-7)
Texas A&M (4-7)
Toledo (3-8)
Tulane (2-9)
UAB (3-8)
UNLV (5-7)
Utah State (2-9)
Washington (0-11)
x-Washington State (2-10)
y-Western Kentucky (2-9)
Wyoming (4-8)

x-play 13-game regular season
y-won 2 games against FCS schools, must win 7 total games.

Note: A 6-6 team may be selected for participation in a bowl game if that team is a member of a conference with which the bowl organization has a contractual affiliation, and there is no other team in that conference with a winning record. If the conference with which the bowl is affiliated has no bowl eligible team, the bowl may invite a team with a 6-6 record from another conference only if there is no other team with a winning record available in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Any team playing 13 games, must win at least seven games to be bowl eligible.

Tie Breakers are listed if ties remain after head to head.

ACC: 8 Bowl Slots, Plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 8 - Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virgina Tech, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech
Needs 1 win: 2 - Clemson, Virginia, NC State
Eliminated: 1 - Duke

Projected: +0. Any number from 8-11 is possible. They will likely have 9 eligible teams.

Coastal:
If Virginia Tech beats Virginia they will go to the championship game, otherwise Georgia Tech will go.

Atlantic:
If Boston College beats Maryland they will go to the championship game, otherwise FSU will go.

Big 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot
Eligible: 7 - Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin
Eliminated: 4 - Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois

Projected: 0. They will likely have 7 eligible teams, but could place a second team in a BCS bowl.

Penn State will be in the Rose Bowl, unless they manage to earn a spot in the championship game.
Ohio State will be eligible for a BCS at large spot.

Big 12: 7 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 7 - Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Needs 1 win: 1 - Colorado
Eliminated: 4 - Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Baylor

Projected: -2. Any number from 7-8 is possible. Colorado would be fortunate to get the win. They will likely have 7-8 eligible teams, leaving them short two slots if they are able to send two teams to a BCS bowl.

Missouri will be in the Big 12 championship game.

The south depends on three game, the favored teams listed first:
A) Texas Tech vs Baylor
B) Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State
C) Texas vs Texas A&M

If all three favored teams teams win the highest ranked team in the BCS standings will go to the championship game.
If A only is an upset, Texas will go to the championship
If B only is an upset, Texas Tech will go to the championship
If C only is an upset, Oklahoma will go the championship
If two are an upset, the winner of the third will go to the championship
If all three are an upset, Texas Tech will go to the championship, as Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would be eliminated after the first round of head to head.

Big East + Notre Dame: 5 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 7 - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut, South Florida, Notre Dame, Rutgers
Needs 1 win: 1 - Louisville
Eliminated: 1 - Syracuse

Projected: +1. Any number from 7-8 is possible. They will likely have 7-8 teams eligible, giving them an extra bowl eligible team or two.

[edited to fix WV's chances ]

If Cincinnati beats Syracuse they will win the Big East.

If Cincinnati loses to Louisville and West Virginia beats Pittsburgh and USF, West Virginia will win the Big East.

If Syracuse beats Cincinnati, WV loses to Pittsburgh and USF, Louisville beats Rutgers and Connecticut beats USF and Pittsburgh, then Connecticut would win the Big East.

If Connecticut beats USF and Pittsburgh, Cincinnati loses to Syracuse and exactly one of: WV beats Pittsburgh, WV beats USF, Rutgers beats Lousiville, then a three way tie with Cincinnati, Connecticut and either WV or Rutgers would occur.

Cincinnati wins all other cases.

In the event of a three way tie, the tie breaker would be BCS standings. If Cincinnati loses to Syracuse, WV loses to USF or Rutgers, and Connecticut beats Pittsburgh it might be interesting to see if any Big East teams even appears in the BCS standings. Connecticut would likely be the highest.

C-USA: 6 Slots

Eligible: 4 - East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice, Houston
Needs 1 win: 3 - Memphis, S. Miss, UTEP
Eliminated: 5 - UAB, UCF, Tulane, SMU, Marshall

Projected: +0. Any number from 4-7 is possible. They will likely have 5-6 teams eligible, possibly leaving them short a slot.

East Carolina will be in the C-USA championship game.

If Houston beats Rice they will win the C-USA West
If Rice wins and Tulsa beats Marshall, Tulsa wins the west
If Rice wins and Tulsa loses to Marshall, Rice wins the west

MAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 5 - Ball State, C. Michigan, W. Michigan, Buffalo, N. Illinois
Needs 1 win: 2 - Akron, Bowling Green
Eliminated: 6 - Temple, Miami (OH), Kent State, Ohio, Toledo, E. Michigan

Projected: +3. Any number from 5-7 is possible. They will likely have 6 teams eligible leaving them an extra 3 eligible teams. Ball State may become eligible for a BCS at large bid, but would be an unlikely pick.

Buffalo will be in the MAC championship game.

If Ball State beats Western Michigan they win the MAC West.
If Western Michigan beats Ball State and Central Michigan loses to Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan wins the MAC West.
If Western Michigan and Central Michigan win a three way tie occurs.

The tie breaker would be conference record of cross over games. Central Michigan and Western Michigan played the same schedule and would beat Ball State. Central Michigan would then win head to head.

MWC: 4 Slots

Eligible: 5 - Utah, TCU, BYU, Air Force, Colorado State
Eliminated: 4 - Wyoming, New Mexico, SDSU, UNLV

Projected: +0. The MWC will have 5 teams eligible and will almost certainly send Utah to the BCS. TCU may also be eligible for a BCS at large, but stands no chance of being selected.

Utah wins the MWC outright with a win over BYU.
Utah and BYU would share the title if BYU beats Utah, along with TCU if TCU beats Air Force.

Navy / Independent: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Navy

Projected: +0.

PAC 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 5 - USC, Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, California
Needs 2 wins: 2 - UCLA, Arizona State
Eliminated: 2 - Washington, Washington State, Stanford

Projected: -3. Any number from 5 to 6 is possible. They will likely get 5 teams eligible and could qualify a second BCS team leaving them 2 short. If Oregon State wins the PAC 10 and USC remains BCS eligible, USC would likely gain a BCS bid.

Oregon State wins the PAC 10 with a win over Oregon.
If Oregon beats Oregon State, and USC defeats UCLA the team highest in the BCS standings would go to the Rose Bowl. This would be USC, unless they lose to Notre Dame.

SEC: 8 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 8 - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
Needs 1 win: 1 - Auburn
Eliminated: 3 - Mississippi State, Tennessee, Arkansas

Projected: -2. Any number from 8-10 is possible. They will likely get 8 teams eligible, leaving them two teams short. If Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and Florida or Alabama lose their two remaining games they may not place a second team in the BCS.

Alabama will play Florida in the SEC championship game.

Sun Belt: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Troy
Needs 1 win: 3 - LA-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State, Florida Atlantic
Needs 2 wins: 1 - Florida International
Eliminated: 2 - LA-Monroe, North Texas

Projected: +2. Any number from 2 to 4 teams is possible. They will likely have 2-3 eligible teams.

The Sun Belt has no tie breakers (as indicated by last years split championship with two teams) (at least the MWC publishes an official statement that they don't use any tiebreakers)

Troy has clinched a share of the Sun Belt championship.
Arkansas State can claim a share of the title by defeating Troy and North Texas.
If Arkansas State beats Troy, Louisiana Lafayette can claim a share of the title with a win over Middle Tennessee State.

WAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 5 - Boise State, San Jose State, LA Tech, Nevada, Fresno State
Needs 1 win: 1 - Hawaii
Eliminated: 3 - New Mexico State, Utah State, Idaho

Projected: +3. Any number from 5-6 is possible. They will likely have 6 eligible teams. Boise State will likely be eligible for a BCS at large spot, but are not likely to get selected.

Boise State has clinched the WAC championship.

Total
Although the PAC 10, SEC and Big 12 could be lacking a total of 7 teams, the Big East, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt should have 9 extra teams available to fill the gaps. Perhaps we need another bowl for those final 2 teams.

The recent moves by the Sun Belt and WAC to position themselves as alternates in several bowl games may well pay off this year. Perhaps the MAC should take notes.

ACC: 8 Bowl Slots, Plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 8 - Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virgina Tech, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech
Needs 1 win: 1 - Virginia
Needs 2 wins: 3- Clemson, Duke, North Carolina State
Eliminated: NONE

Projected: +1. Any number from 8-12 is possible. They will likely have 9-10 eligible teams, possibly giving them and extra eligible team.

Maryland and Miami control their own fate for the ACC championship game. If they lose a game, and they both have tough tests ahead, the conference is up in the air. I might comment with further detail later this week.

Big 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot
Eligible: 7 - Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin
Needs 1 win: 1 - Illinois
Eliminated: 3 - Michigan, Indiana, Purdue

Projected: 0. Any number from 7-8 is possible. They will likely have 7 or 8 eligible teams, but could place a second team in a BCS bowl.

If Penn State beats Michigan State they are the champions.
If Penn State loses and Ohio State beats Michigan Ohio State will be the champions.
If Michigan State beats Penn State and Ohio State loses Michigan State will be the champions.

Big 12: 7 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 7 - Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Needs 1 win: 1 - Colorado
Eliminated: 4 - Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Baylor

Projected: -2. Any number from 7-8 is possible. Colorado would be fortunate to get the win. They will likely have 7-8 eligible teams, leaving them short two slots if they are able to send two teams to a BCS bowl.

Missouri will be in the Big 12 championship game.

If Texas Tech beats Oklahoma they will be in the Big 12 championship game.
Texas Tech would also win if they lose to Oklahoma and Oklahoma then lost to Oklahoma State.
Texas would win if Oklahoma beat Texas Tech and Texas Tech lost to Baylor.
Oklahoma would win if they beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and Texas lost to Texas A&M.

If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech win their other games the highest ranked team in the BCS standings will be in the Big 12 championship game. This would likely be Oklahoma.

Big East + Notre Dame: 5 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 6 - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut, South Florida, Notre Dame
Needs 1 win: 2 - Louisville, Rutgers
Eliminated: 1 - Syracuse

Projected: +1. Any number from 6-8 is possible. They will likely have 7-8 teams eligible, giving them an extra bowl eligible team or two.

Like the ACC, the Big East championship picture is still very cloudy. It is tractable now and I may get around to it latter this week. If Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh they will have a very strong lead.

C-USA: 6 Slots

Eligible: 4 - East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice, Houston
Needs 1 win: 3 - Memphis, S. Miss, UTEP
Needs 2 wins: 1 - Marshall
Eliminated: 4 - UAB, UCF, Tulane, SMU

Projected: +0. Any number from 4-8 is possible. They will likely have 5-6 teams eligible, possibly leaving them short a slot.

Houston controls their own fate.
Tulsa needs Houston to lose to Rice or UTEP and to beat Tulane and Marshall.
Rice needs to beat Houston and Marshall and have Tulsa lose to Tulane or Marshall.
UTEP might have possibilities if they beat Houston and Tulsa or Rice lose both their remaining games, though I would have to examine the tie breakers more fully.

East Carolina needs to beat UAB or UTEP.
Marshall needs East Carolina to lose to both UAB and UTEP and beat Rice and Tulsa.
Memphis needs East Carolina to lose to both UAB and UTEP and Marshall to lose to Rice or Tulsa, while beating both UCF and Tulane.
Unexplored remote possibilities exist for the other C-USA east teams should East Carolina lose bothe games while Marshall and Memphis both drop a game.

MAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 4 - Ball State, C. Michigan, W. Michigan, Buffalo
Needs 1 win: 3 - Akron, Bowling Green, N. Illinois
Eliminated: 6 - Temple, Miami (OH), Kent State, Ohio, Toledo, E. Michigan

Projected: +4. Any number from 5-7 is possible. They will likely have 6-7 teams eligible leaving them an extra 3 or 4 eligible teams.

Central Michigan needs to beat Ball State to win the MAC West.
Ball State needs to beat Central Michigan and Western Michigan to win the MAC West.
Western Michigan needs Ball State to beat Central Michigan and Central Michigan to lose to Eastern Michigan to win the MAC West.
If Ball State beats Central Michigan, Western Michigan beats Ball State and Central Michigan beats Eastern Michigan tiebreakers are employed. This would fall to which team had the stronger opponents from the MAC East.

MWC: 4 Slots

Eligible: 4- Utah, TCU, BYU, Air Force
Needs 1 win: 2 - Colorado State, UNLV
Eliminated: 3 - Wyoming, New Mexico, SDSU

Projected: +0. Any number from 4-6 is possible. They will likely have 4-5 teams eligible and could send one to the BCS, leaving them anywhere from one short to one over.

Utah wins the MWC outright with a win over BYU.
Utah and BYU would share the title if BYU beats Utah, along with TCU if TCU beats Air Force.

Navy / Independent: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Navy

Projected: +0.

PAC 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 5 - USC, Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, California
Needs 1 win: 1 - Stanford
Needs 2 wins: 2 - UCLA, Arizona State
Eliminated: 2 - Washington, Washington State

Projected: -2. Any number from 5 to 7 is possible. They will likely get 5-6 teams eligible and could qualify a second BCS team leaving them 2 short.

Oregon State wins the PAC 10 with wins over Arizona and Oregon State.
USC wins with an Oregon State loss to Arizona and a win over UCLA.
If Oregon beats Oregon State, USC defeats UCLA and Oregon State defeats Arizona the team highest in the BCS standings would go to the Rose Bowl. This would be USC, unless they lose to Notre Dame.

SEC: 8 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 8 - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
Needs 1 win: 1 - Auburn
Needs 2 wins: 1- Arkansas
Eliminated: 2 - Mississippi State, Tennessee

Projected: -2. Any number from 8-10 is possible. They will likely get 8 teams eligible, leaving them two teams short. If Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and Florida or Alabama lose their two remaining games they may not place a second team in the BCS.

Alabama will play Florida in the SEC championship game.

Sun Belt: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Troy
Needs 1 win: 1 - LA-Lafayette, Florida Atlantic
Needs 2 wins: 3 - Florida International, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State
Eliminated: LA-Monroe, North Texas

Projected: +2. Any number from 1 to 5 teams is possible. They will likely have 2-3 eligible teams.

Troy would win the Sun Belt with a win over LA-Lafayette.
LA-Lafayette would win the Sun Belt with a win over Troy and Middle Tennessee State.
After this, ugliness ensues.

WAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 5 - Boise State, San Jose State, LA Tech, Nevada, Fresno State
Needs 1 win: 1 - Hawaii
Eliminated: 3 - New Mexico State, Utah State, Idaho

Projected: +6. Any number from 5-6 is possible. They will likely have 6 eligible teams and have an outside shot at a BCS bowl.

Boise State wins the WAC with a win over Nevada or Fresno State or a Nevada loss to LA Tech.
Nevada wins the WAC with a win over Boise State and LA Tech and a Boise State loss to Fresno State.

Total
Although the PAC 10, SEC and Big 12 could be lacking a total of 6 teams, the ACC, Big East, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt should have 11 extra teams available to fill the gaps. Perhaps we need another two bowls for those final 5 teams.

The recent moves by the Sun Belt and WAC to position themselves as alternates in several bowl games may well pay off this year.

"The long and short of it is, the administration and I are completely and firmly committed to building a championship football program at North Carolina," he told reporters a week ago. "My family and I are very happy in Chapel Hill."

Just my two cents: You can go ahead and add the words "today" and "for now" to the end of each sentence.

Davis's comments haven't gone unnoticed in ACC country, either.

J.P. Giglio from the News & Observer says Davis's future is "brighter than Tennessee" and runs down the potential moves for Butch, who can almost write his own ticket for any opening in the country.

Let's be clear, Davis can coach. UNC was one of the 10 worst programs in the BCS era before Davis arrived. In less than two seasons, Davis has the Heels 7-2 and ranked in the top 20.

...

With Davis' original intent in mind, there are few jobs he would leave UNC for. Save for Florida, and that would be awkward given his Miami background - although not impossible based on Rick Pitino's precedent in college basketball - there likely isn't a job in the SEC that Davis would take.

That leaves, in order:

1) University of Texas

Texas Tech, Missouri and Kansas have all made noise in the past two seasons but the Big 12 is essentially the Big 2 - Texas and Oklahoma.

Given Davis' past at Oklahoma State, I'm going to rule out Oklahoma - which also fired Davis' right-hand man, John Blake, so I don't think the two would be eager to run to Norman.

Davis recruiting at Texas is a frightening proposition. The 2001 Miami team, that won the national title the year after Davis left, was, from No. 1 through No. 85, the most-talented team in the history of the game.

He could give that roster a run for its money with Texas' recruiting resources and rich talent base.

Of course, Mack Brown is the coach at Texas. But Brown, after 11 seasons and a national title in Austin, could take another job or leave coaching to get an AD or commissioner job.

The pressure would be greater to deliver at Texas than at Chapel Hill, but Brown handled the transition and so could Davis.

2) Dallas Cowboys
...

3) Penn State

It's a longshot but it would at least be worth a conversation. Like the ACC, the Big Ten is ripe for domination. There's Ohio State and not exactly.

On the verge of another Big Ten title, Joe Paterno has reconfirmed that his successor will be his call and Davis won't be his choice.

But replacing a legend never works - like Frank Solich, like Ray Perkins - so the PSU search committee would have to cast a wider net in 2010.

Interestingly enough, Paterno almost took the Miami job when Davis was ultimately hired in 1995.

4) USC

Talk about owning a conference, please, Carroll owns everything west of Austin.

Los Angeles might be a little out of Davis' comfort zone, but it's an unbelievable recruiting base and you're guaranteed an annual crack at the national title.

Plus, at USC, there's no NFL team in LA and no one really cares about the basketball program.

I know what you're thinking... why in the world would Texas ever hire a Tarheels football coach? Oh... wait.

I'm just being honest here when I say that I can't think of too many people other than Butch Davis who could even step into Mack Brown's shoes at Texas. Can you?

And -- despite the prominent shadow -- I don't think its much of a stretch to see Davis taking over for JoPa. The field of really strong, viable candidates has definitely dwindled. (You don't hear Greg Schiano's name much these days, do ya?)

Could Davis take over at Notre Dame? I think Davis could coach circles around Charlie Weis. And he already has, now that I think about it. Think the Irish faithful want some Butch? You betchya!

What do yall think? Butch in 2009 - Carolina Blue or something new?

So... without further ado... my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 8, 2008.

Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule

New Mexico Bowl - San Jose State vs Colorado State

St. Petersburg Bowl - South Florida vs Houston

Pioneer Las Vegas - TCU vs Oregon

Eagle Bank Bowl - Virginia vs Navy

R+L Carriers New Orleans - Memphis vs Troy

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia - BYU vs Nevada

Sheraton Hawaii - Hawaii vs Stanford

Motor City - Central Michigan vs Illinois

Meineke Car Care - Cincinnati vs Maryland

Champs Sports - Virginia Tech vs Wisconsin

Emerald - Arizona vs Miami

Independence - Akron vs Florida International

PapaJohns.com - West Virginia vs. Florida Atlantic

Valero Alamo - Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State

Roady's Humanitarian - Boise State vs Boston College

Texas - Rutgers vs. Louisiana Tech

Pacific Life Holiday - Cal vs. Missouri

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces - Air Force vs Rice

Brut Sun - Oregon State vs. Nebraska

Gaylord Hotels Music City - Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky

Insight - Kansas vs. Northwestern

Chick-fil-A - Ole Miss vs North Carolina

Outback - Iowa vs South Carolina

Capital One - Georgia vs. Michigan State

Konica Minolta Gator - Wake Forest vs Notre Dame

AT&T Cotton - Oklahoma vs LSU

AutoZone Liberty - Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt

International - Connecticut vs. Western Michigan

GMAC - East Carolina vs. Ball State

Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. USC

FedEx Orange - Florida State vs. Utah

Allstate Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh

Tostitos Fiesta - Texas vs. Ohio State

BCS National Championship Game - Texas Tech vs. Florida

ACC: 8 Bowl Slots, Plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 8 - Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virgina Tech, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech
Needs 1 win: 1 - Virginia
Needs 2 wins: 2- Clemson, Duke
Needs 3 wins: 1- North Carolina State
Eliminated: NONE

Projected: +1. Any number from 8-12 is possible. They will likely have 9 or 10 eligible teams, possibly giving them and extra eligible team.

Big 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot
Eligible: 6- Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa
Needs 1 win: 2- Wisconsin, Illinois
Eliminated: 3- Michigan, Indiana, Purdue

Projected: -1. Any number from 6-8 is possible. They will likely have 7 or 8 eligible teams, but could place a second team in a BCS bowl.

Big 12: 7 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 7 - Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Needs 1 win: 1 - Colorado
Needs 2 wins: 2 - Kansas State and Texas A&M
Eliminated: 2 - Iowa State, Baylor

Projected: -2. Any number from 7-10 is possible. Colorado would be fortunate to get the win. They will likely have 7-8 eligible teams, leaving them short two slots if they are able to send two teams to a BCS bowl.

Big East + Notre Dame: 5 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 5 - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut, South Florida
Needs 1 win: 2 - Notre Dame, Louisville
Needs 2 wins: 1 - Rutgers
Eliminated: 1 - Syrause

Projected: +1. Any number from 5-8 is possible. They will likely have 7-8 teams eligible, giving them an extra bowl eligible team or two.

C-USA: 6 Slots

Eligible: 3 - East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice
Needs 1 win: 2 - Memphis, Houston
Needs 2 wins: 3 - Marshall, S. Miss, UTEP
Eliminated: 4 - UAB, UCF, Tulane, SMU

Projected: -1. Any number from 3-8 is possible. They will likely have 5-6 teams eligible, possibly leaving them short a slot.

MAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 3 - Ball State, C. Michigan, W. Michigan
Needs 1 win: 4 - Akron, Buffalo, Bowling Green, N. Illinois
Needs 3 wins: 1 - Temple
Eliminated: 5 - Miami (OH), Kent State, Ohio, Toledo, E. Michigan

Projected: +4. Any number from 4-7 is possible. They will likely have 6-7 teams eligible leaving them an extra 3 or 4 eligible teams.

MWC: 4 Slots

Eligible: 4- Utah, TCU, BYU, Air Force
Needs 2 wins: 3 - Colorado State, UNLV, Wyoming
Eliminated: 2 - New Mexico, SDSU

Projected: +0. Any number from 4-6 is possible. They will likely have 4-5 teams eligible and could send one to the BCS, leaving them anywhere from one short to one over.

Navy / Independent: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Navy

Projected: +0.

PAC 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 5 - USC, Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, California
Needs 1 win: 1 - Stanford
Needs 3 wins: 2 - UCLA, Arizona State
Eliminated: 2 - Washington, Washington State

Projected: -2.

SEC: 8 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 6 - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU
Needs 1 win: 3 - Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Auburn
Needs 2 wins: 1- Arkansas
Needs 3 wins: 1- Mississippi State
Eliminated: 1 - Tennessee

Projected: -2. Any number from 6-10 is possible. They will likely get 8 teams eligible, leaving them two teams short.

Sun Belt: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Troy
Needs 1 win: 1 - LA-Lafayette
Needs 2 wins: 3 - Florida International, Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic
Needs 3 wins: Middle Tennessee State
Eliminated: LA-Monroe, North Texas

Projected: +2. Any number from 1 to 5 teams. They will likely have 2-3 eligible teams.

WAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 2 - Boise State, San Jose State
Needs 1 win: 4 - LA Tech, Nevada, Hawaii, Fresno State
Needs 3 wins: 1 - New Mexico State
Eliminated: 2 - Utah State, Idaho

Projected: +2. Any number from 3-7 is possible. They will likely have 5-6 eligible teams and have an outside shot at a BCS bowl.

Total
Although the PAC 10, SEC, Big 12, C-USA and Big 10 could be lacking a total of 8 teams, the ACC, Big East, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt should have 10 extra teams available to fill the gaps. Perhaps we need another bowl for those final 2.

The recent moves by the Sun Belt and WAC to position themselves as alternates in several bowl games may well pay off this year.

Bowl Eligible Teams through 11-8-2008

ACC - 8 teams eligible
FSU, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech

Big 12 - 7 teams eligible
Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big East - 5 teams eligible
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, South Florida

Big 10 -6 teams eligible
Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa

Conference USA - 3 teams eligible
East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice

Independents - 1 team eligible
Navy

MAC - 3 teams eligible
Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan

MWC - 4 teams eligible
BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force

Pac10 - 5 teams eligible
USC, Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State

SEC - 6 teams eligible
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU

Sun Belt - 1 team eligible
Troy

WAC - 2 teams eligible
Boise State, San Jose State

For a complete list of bowl game matchups by conference, dates, times, and television coverage, check our 2008 bowl game schedule.

Interim head coach Dabo Swinney is set to get an interview with Tigers AD Terry Don Phillips, however, there is pressure mounting on Phillips to make a substantial hire. Despite his popularity with the Clemson players, Swinney would not be a substantial hire for CU.

One name that is getting attention is long-time Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster. Foster, who has coached for 22 seasons for the Hokies, is considered a good recruiter who is well connected. He's an intense and sometimes demonstrative coach, which would be a marked contrast with former Tigers head coach Tommy Bowden. Foster has seen the blueprint for building & maintaining a championship-caliber program. Expect Foster to be one of the names on the short list at Clemson.

Another name that has been surfaced in nearly every existing and potential coaching search is that of Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach. Leach's value may never be higher thanks to his team's performance this year. The Red Raiders are a potential BCS team this season, thanks to Leach's decision to re-mix his power offense into a more balanced run-and-shoot spread. Leach is Leach... and that means an infinitely different tone than Bowden. An interesting twist in the Mike Leach angle? Leach was denied a contract extension in the off-season, as the administration asked him to wait until after the season. Too bad for Tech - the price tag is likely to be hefty. It's yet to be seen if that perceived snub has put a splinter into the otherwise cozy relationship in Lubbock. There's no question that he could recruit at Clemson and would likely bring instant excitement back into the Tigers program. The job might be his for the taking and Clemson will seek to interview Mike Leach.

The top candidate for the job right now may be Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Muschamp has been successfully everywhere he has ever gone. Considered one of the very best assistant coaches in the country, Muschamp is an outstanding recruiter and would bring a never-before-seen level of intensity to Clemson. The only downside (at all) to Muschamp is that he is likely to be a top candidate at Auburn, if Tommy Tuberville is fired, which could mean a very hefty salary. That shouldn't scare Clemson away, but it could end up going hiring than the $2.5 million that the Tigers had been prepared to offer their next coach.

More names that are on the list at Clemson? East Carolina's Skip Holtz, Tulsa's Todd Graham, Vanderbilt's Bobby Johnson and TCU's Gary Patterson... not necessarily in that order.

And for a dark horse sleeper candidates? Cincinnati's Brian Kelly, Ball State's Brady Hoke, and Auburn's Tommy Tuberville.

The following are updated through October 27, 2008:

1 BIG 12 (78.18)
2 BIG TEN (77.24)
3 ATLANTIC COAST (76.97)
4 SOUTHEASTERN (76.54)
5 PAC-10 (74.33)
6 BIG EAST (73.44)
7 MOUNTAIN WEST (70.27)
8 I-A INDEPENDENTS (67.33)
9 WESTERN ATHLETIC (65.57)
10 MID-AMERICAN (65.18)
11 CONFERENCE USA (63.31)
12 SUN BELT (61.11)

A find a couple facets of the current rankings rather fascinating:

- The SEC is the fourth best conference, top-to-bottom? Seriously? The SEC is 20-7 out-of-conference against DI-A teams this year. Granted, three of those seven losses are to the ACC, but... the ACC returned the favor in losing three to the SEC. Sagarin has three SEC teams in his top ten, but the ACC gets the slight nod when you contrast the middle and bottom of each conference, which makes sense when you consider that there are... like... forty-seven teams tied for first in the ACC.

- Is another non-BCS blowout in the offing? Cinderella teams from the WAC (Boise State), Mountain West (Utah, TCU), MAC (Ball State), and C-USA (Tulsa) are all looking to qualify into a BCS bowl this year. Sagarin's ratings would seem to indicate that their resumes might be lacking if and when they get to the big stage.

- The BCS conferences are head-and-shoulders above the non-BCS conferences. The separation between the Big East and Mountain West is statically significant, and I don't think we've seen any rankings that dispute that designation in the last four years.

Texas and Alabama - the nation's top two undefeated teams - have a clear road to the BCS National Championship game. In the words of legendary Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer - just win, baby. If the Horns and Tide win out (including their respective conference championship games), then the two will meet in the National Championship game. Period. End of story.

Undefeated Penn State will need help to reach the BCS National Championship game. For PSU, either Texas or Alabama must lose while the Nittany Lions must continue to win out. A UT or UA loss puts Coach Paterno and company in Miami, provided they remain undefeated. If Penn State loses - regardless of what happens above them - then PSU will likely get jumped by another one-loss team.

The prospects for the one-loss teams near the top of the polls became bleaker this weekend. The top three teams - by virtue of their sizable leads in the coming BCS poll - will not get jumped if they win out. OU, USC, UGA, and Florida are playing out the rest of the season just for a BCS game berth. They cannot reach the BCS National Championship game without losses from at least two of the three top undefeated teams.

This week's BCS poll results will be very telling for the down-but-(how are they never?)-not-out Ohio State Buckeyes. Despite the loss to Penn State, the Bucks still have the inside track on a Rose Bowl bid if PSU makes it to the championship game. How's that? Well, OSU is likely to be ranked in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. If Penn State doesn't play in the Rose Bowl, then Ohio State will.

And - despite the rising number of non-BCS teams trying to wear Cinderella's slipper - all of these developments do not bode well for the Utahs, Boise States, and Tulsas of the world. Quite the contrary, actually. After you take your automatic qualifiers and the the strong second teams from the BCS conferences, there may be just one BCS bowl game slot remaining. So - despite the number of non-BCS teams that could stake a claim - it now appears that only one will get to play in a BCS bowl game.

Here are my (totally worthless) BCS projections:

BCS CG: Texas vs Penn State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs USC
Orange Bowl: FSU vs Georgia
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Boise State

What would it take for the MWC to consider expanding? I can't find the link but I remember a statement that, regarding adding Boise State and Fresno State, they would need to add two bowl games or BCS automatic qualifications. Boise has already brought one, and strong BCS credentials.

Interestingly, this C-USA message board is indicating reports that:

The MWC Commissioner gave a radio interview in Boise while finalizing the Humanitarian Bowl agreement and indicated that the MWC Presidents are open to revisiting the expansion questions. For a commissioner to go public on something like this, there has to be something to it. This is, without question, a new development.

And this perspective:

So, if expansion stops at BSU, then this is a positive development for CUSA. Like PAC, I don't see MWC going beyond 10 teams because everyone wants to play BYU (and probably Utah) just like northern PAC schools want to play USC and UCLA each year so they can boost their season ticket sales and for recruiting purposes.

This radio address is echoed by that same Idaho paper mentioned above.

Meanwhile, Thompson told "Idaho Sports Talk" that Mountain West presidents have discussed expansion for the first time since selecting TCU over Boise State in January 2004 to create a nine-team league.

However, a Mountain West spokesman told the Idaho Statesman that expansion is "not an agenda item at this time."

Now that same Deseret News posts this article.

That's right, the MWC needs to snatch up the University of Tulsa as fast as it can.

You thought I was talking about Boise State?

I actually like Boise State and have been a proponent of the MWC adding the school in the past, despite that ghastly blue turf and an arena named after Taco Bell.

The MWC schedules have been fouled up ever since TCU came in the league, and schools could save a lot of money if they started playing two games the same weekend on the same trip, rather than making a bunch of single-game trips as they do now. Basketball could go back to a Thursday-Saturday schedule, rather than have all those Tuesday and Wednesday games.

Tulsa was ranked a Tier 1 school, 83rd in the country, ahead of every MWC school. BYU and TCU were the highest-ranked MWC schools, in a tie for 113th, just ahead of Colorado State and Utah. Boise State didn't even make the list of Tier 3 and Tier 4 schools (UNLV and San Diego State were in the latter category).

Not exactly a flat rebuttal to expansion talks, nor a Texas team as feared by the C-USA boards. It could be much worse for C-USA than losing a Texas School. A bigger question is whether Tulsa would leave C-USA for the MWC. The MWC edge in football is less when other sports are considered.

Nothing is official, but rumors are in the wind. Everywhere Craig Thompson turns this question arises., even when the topic is the MWC's success in its short 10 year lifespan, equal to the lifespan of the BCS.

Is a MWC expansion on the horizon? Are Boise State, Fresno State and Tulsa lined up to fill a 12 team conference?

I can only hope.

This episode will explore the criterion used by the BCS. Next will feature OOC record and OOC strength, adjusted to account for biasing related to the central limit theorem. Consideration of records vs BCS teams, teams with winning records and opponents currently in the BCS top 25 will be examined as well. Finally a ranking using breaks in a collection of computer rankings will be used to separate teams into grades and each conference will be judged by their performance against each grade.

This process will be repeated at after the bowls are played and include bowl information and stats related to bowl wins, 10 win teams and data spanning 4 years.

Two of the factors used by the BCS are listed with the BCS standings. The third is harder to pin down because it is vaguely described. Some measure of the top to bottom strength of the conferences using the BCS computers is used to judge them.

Each BCS computer generates a conference standing, though one uses a different set of data to do so. Each presents their data as a raw data score and do not directly relate to each other in any meaningful way. By finding the mean and standard deviation for each computer a z-score can be obtained for each conference relative to that computer.

The average of these 6 z-scores is presented here:

SEC: 1.138
Big 12: 1.127
ACC: 0.804
Big 10: 0.776

Big East: 0.328
PAC 10: 0.277
MWC: 0.122

WAC: -0.605

MAC: -1.127
C-USA: -1.235
Sun Belt: -1.605

At the end of last year similar results were obtained but the WAC was in the lower group and the MWC was in the gap, close to 0. The PAC 10 and C-USA down significantly from previous years. The Big 12, ACC and MWC are up from their typical position.

So while the SEC and Big 12 are neck and neck for the top conference in the land, and the Sun Belt is in no danger of their basement status, the MWC is doing well on a relative basis and the ACC is muddling along without a clear cut leader, but few liabilities either. I don't expect to see anything different in the other data.

At this time I would like to plug my favorite, based on its theory and openness of methodology, of the BCS comptuer rankings. Unfortunately it also has my team the lowest of any of the computers.