August 24, 2004
Fanblogs XIV: Preseason
This week marks the very first edition of a new weekly feature: FANBLOGS XIV poll. Be sure to check in with us every week!
FANBLOGS XIV - Preseason
- Southern California (8) 151
- Oklahoma (1) 133
- LSU (2) 129
- Georgia 124
- Miami (Fla.) 98
- Florida St. 79
- Texas 78
- Michigan 77
- Ohio St. 69
- Iowa 38
- West Virginia 33
- Florida 30
- Kansas St. 27
- Clemson 16
First place votes in parenthesis. Weighted ballot points appear beside team name.
Others Receiving Votes:
Auburn 13, Maryland 13, Tennessee 12, North Carolina St. 10, Washington St. 6, California 5, Oregon 5, Boise St. 4, Memphis 2, Louisville 1, Utah 1
Author Voting:
Kevin Donahue: 1) LSU, 2) Southern California, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Florida St., 5) Georgia, 6) Miami (Fla.), 7) Michigan, 8) Texas, 9) Ohio St., 10) Auburn, 11) Kansas St., 12) Clemson, 13) Iowa, 14) Florida
Pete Holiday: 1) LSU, 2) Southern California, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Georgia, 5) Miami (Fla.), 6) Texas, 7) Florida St., 8) Ohio St., 9) Florida, 10) Michigan, 11) Tennessee, 12) Iowa, 13) West Virginia, 14) Kansas St.
Derek Willis: 1) Southern California, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Georgia, 4) LSU, 5) Michigan, 6) Florida St., 7) Texas, 8) Ohio St., 9) Miami (Fla.), 10) West Virginia, 11) North Carolina St., 12) Auburn, 13) Florida, 14) Tennessee
Dave Frey: 1) Oklahoma, 2) Southern California, 3) Georgia, 4) Miami (Fla.), 5) Michigan, 6) Florida St., 7) Texas, 8) LSU, 9) Ohio St., 10) Florida, 11) West Virginia, 12) Kansas St., 13) California, 14) Iowa
Jeff Quinton: 1) Southern California, 2) LSU, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Miami (Fla.), 5) Georgia, 6) Texas, 7) Florida St., 8) Clemson, 9) Iowa, 10) Michigan, 11) Ohio St., 12) Florida, 13) West Virginia, 14) Oregon
John Ludwig: 1) Southern California, 2) Georgia, 3) Oklahoma, 4) LSU, 5) Miami (Fla.), 6) Ohio St., 7) Texas, 8) Michigan, 9) Florida St., 10) Iowa, 11) Kansas St., 12) California, 13) Tennessee, 14) Clemson
Josh McClain: 1) Southern California, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Georgia, 4) LSU, 5) Iowa, 6) Maryland, 7) West Virginia, 8) Florida, 9) Texas, 10) North Carolina St., 11) Oregon, 12) Ohio St., 13) Boise St., 14) Utah
Matt Yeager: 1) Southern California, 2) LSU, 3) Miami (Fla.), 4) Oklahoma, 5) Ohio St., 6) Michigan, 7) Georgia, 8) Iowa, 9) Washington St., 10) West Virginia, 11) Maryland, 12) Tennessee, 13) Boise St., 14) Louisville
Dave: 1) Southern California, 2) Oklahoma, 3) LSU, 4) Florida St., 5) Georgia, 6) Miami (Fla.), 7) Michigan, 8) Texas, 9) Ohio St., 10) Kansas St., 11) Iowa, 12) Florida, 13) Auburn, 14) North Carolina St.
David Stein: 1) Southern California, 2) Georgia, 3) Oklahoma, 4) LSU, 5) Miami (Fla.), 6) Florida St., 7) Michigan, 8) West Virginia, 9) Ohio St., 10) Texas, 11) Kansas St., 12) Florida, 13) Tennessee, 14) Clemson
Robert Knodell: 1) Southern California, 2) Georgia, 3) LSU, 4) Texas, 5) Miami (Fla.), 6) Oklahoma, 7) Florida St., 8) Michigan, 9) Kansas St., 10) Ohio St., 11) Clemson, 12) Auburn, 13) Memphis, 14) Iowa
Comments:
Matt Yeager said:
posted on August 24, 2004 10:46 PM — 4.12.29.71 — link — abuse?
I'm sorry, but I don't buy into the Florida hype. What exactly has the coaching staff done to prove it can win 10 games out of 12? Do you REALLY think they can take 3 out of four from LSU, FSU, Georgia, and UT? (What about TWO out of four? One out of four?) Heck, do you even trust them to beat South Carolina? The team is so ruthlessly unreliable, it's stunning.
Also, look out for Maryland! The schedule is unfavorable, but if they beat WVU again and only take one conference loss, they're playing for Oranges December 4th. And they're good enough to do it, too.
Matt Yeager said:
posted on August 24, 2004 10:48 PM — 4.12.29.71 — link — abuse?
Oh, yeah, and LSU should be really, really, really good too. All they lose is a starting QB.
That's not sarcasm. That's ALL they lose. And with that Vincent character at RB, they don't even need a QB. Their defense can outscore most offenses they face all by itself, anyway.
posted on August 24, 2004 11:13 PM — 66.186.252.13 — link — abuse?dave frey said:
No, that's not ALL they lose, Matt. Off the top of my head, they also lose Michael Clayton, Devery Henderson, Chad Lavalais, Jack Hunt, and Stephen Peterman. Those guys were all major contributors.
TigerEd- Plenty of clues here, thanks. Care to put dinner (including wine and desert) at Ruth's Chris, or maybe a few hundred bucks, on whose prediction is closer to LSU's ranking after the season- mine or yours (I'm assuming yours is top 3?)?
Look, I love the Tigers as much as anyone, and we pay the big dollars for the premium season tickets, but I've never let my loyalties lead me to irrational optimism or trash talking. LSU will be an 8-3 team this year, 9-2 if we get really, really lucky. Personally, I'm fine with that. Would I LIKE to win the title again this year? Sure, but it's not going to happen. We had our year last year. This one belongs to Oklahoma or USC, or hopefully Georgia.
posted on August 24, 2004 11:23 PM — link — abuse?
I asked Dave the same thing and --after hearing him-- I know he believes what he says. He doesn't think LSU can win those road games & Auburn could be a real test for LSU. So, in my book, his picks are sound (at least to him).
What doesn't make sense to me is Boise State and Utah in the top 14. Or Memphis? Memphis, RK? I guess I will see the light someday, though.
There's some questionable rankings (I'm biased though b/c I know I'm right! HA!) but, all in all, I'd say we've got a pretty good poll. We'll see how it shakes out after week 1.
And TE - you know you're welcome to vote in this thing, too, brother. Just email me for the author login if you don't have it already.
posted on August 24, 2004 11:49 PM — 12.215.229.182 — link — abuse?
I know the Memphis pick is a big break from conventional wisdom. Here goes:
Every season, it seems there is Conference USA or Mountain West team that knocks on the door of the top 10 near season's end. I believe such a team will be Memphis, a team that is one of the better kept secrets going into this year.
Memphis returns virtually everyone from a 9-4 team last season that includes stud RB DeAngelo Williams, last year's C-USA player of the year that will be a LaDanion Tomlinson-type Heisman candidate. They return most starters from squad ranked 9th nationally in total defense and 16th nationally in total offense.
They have players on the watch lists for the Heisman, Walter Camp, Lou Groza, Davey O'Brien, and Maxwell awards. Experts talk a lot about Louisville (who got a vote here) in C-USA but these Memphis players blasted U of L 37-7 in Louisville last year.
Provided they beat Ole Miss (as they did last year) in the opener, this team could very possibly run the table. I may eat my words, but I think these guys as for real.
posted on August 25, 2004 12:01 AM — 68.62.114.241 — link — abuse?
Well... at the end of the day, this is still a preseason poll, and people can vote whatever pipe dreams they can come up with... I really should've given 'Bama a #1 vote, just to ruffle feathers... but I'm quite sure this thing will stabilize a bit after the first few weeks.
posted on August 25, 2004 12:02 AM — 4.230.216.37 — link — abuse?
Kevin, I'd love to contribute, but only if you guys don't mind...
If I'm too much of a homer, then perhaps I should just be a "poster" so to speak...I just don't want to be up here looking like I'm wearing the purple coach's shorts with the gold suspenders and tube socks w/the mesh Cholly Mac Era LSU hat...
Lord knows I've got the material, and the juice...Matter of fact, here's a tidbit...
Skyler Green, the nation's leading punt returner and without question the fastest and most elusive playmaker returning the SEC at wide receiver was injured while being tackled today at the final scrimmage before the OSU game weekend after next.
According to some trainers I've heard from, it seems as if even though Saban feels the injury is minor, it may be the dreaded high ankle sprain.
Super recruit and uber-fast wideout Xavier Carter is also hobbled by an ankle sprain suffered at today's final dress rehearsal, but it's not believed to be anywhere near as serious...
Kevin, just let me know...If it's still the same as last year, I might still have the info...
posted on August 25, 2004 12:38 AM — 4.230.216.70 — link — abuse?
Dave, in response to your answer to my initial question...
Early Doucet is going to probably start at wideout, along with Bowe (Who will be the next Michael Clayton-book it) and Green.
The wideouts-and if you're an LSU fan worth your salt you know this-that are coming as freshman are the most talented collection of pass catchers the school has ever seen.
Lavelle Hawkins-according to a local LSU sports magazine I used to write for-comes in and out of his turns and breaks, as well as puts his foot into the ground and cuts out of it better than anyone else on the LSU roster. Xavier Carter decided AGAINST trying to qualify for the Olympics this summer in order to focus on LSU.
Amp Hill is @ 95%. My friends with their ears to the railroad line at the Ponderosa practice facility told me-last year during fall camp-that he was pushing Devery for the 2nd wide receiver spot.
This is a guy as an 18 year old that pushed a 21 year old elite class sprinter who was a 2nd round NFL draft pick his SENIOR YEAR! Many, many people are discounting him. I've had some conversations with a family member of his who contacted me through my favorite LSU site. Trust me when I say this guy is going to surprise people as the season goes on and he returns to form. For those that don't know, he had a rough rehab from a surgery on a torn MCL last fall camp.
Early Doucet is going to burst onto the collegiate landscape. Period. Point blank.
Davis was getting some PT last year with our corp of receivers...So he's at least somewhat decent, wouldn't you say?
Marcus Randall has gotten a bad rap as a quarterback for the 2-4 performance in 2002. Please see one of my last posts that was turned into a thread here for more information for the QB situation at LSU.
Trust me when I say this...There is no weakness at the skill positions at LSU.
As for the trenches...
Andrew Whitworth is a 21 year old, 6-8, 325 pound future NFL 1st rounder. Ask one scout to refute the preceeding statement.
Ben Wilkerson at Center is another Pre-Season 1st Team All-American. Four year starter. Superb competitor. Brilliant intellect on the guy, too. Rudy Niswanger will man either LG or RG, and he's a part-time starter over the last two seasons. We haven't missed a beat while he's been subbing for an injured Nate Livings last year, for example...
Nate Livings-in the first happening in Nick Saban's head coaching career-had the highest score on the coaching staff's grueling conditioning test opening fall camp. It's a combination of bench press, squat, shuttle runs, and 16 110 sprints, consecutively...He's 6-6, 295, and he'll slide out to right tackle, as Whitworth has locked down the left side.
Brian Johnson and NFL talented Terrell McGill will fight it out for the last interior guard position.
I'm sorry...But wideout talent was lost and gained. The Offensive line lost and gained. Quarterback lost and gained. We've upgraded athleticism, speed, physicality, and talent at each position you've brought up as a potential weakness.
We have a fifth year senior whose spent more time under Jimbo Fisher & Nick Saban's offense than any other LSU Quarterback during that time. He's logged SERIOUS time under center, and actually enters this year not only with competition breathing down his back and elevating his level because of it, but also-believe it or not-has more experience than Matt Mauck did entering his junior year...
You look at the glass half empty...and call yourself a pragmatist...
I don't look at the glass at all...I'm grabbing for a Coors Light and heading towards the South End Zone...Keep ya premium seats! SU16, Row R, Seats 15, 16, 17, baby!!!!!
posted on August 25, 2004 8:01 AM — link — abuse?
For grins, the Sagarin ratings are out and the #1 team isn't USC, LSU, OU or Georgia. I've always loved the Sag ratings, pretty good for those that play the lines.
posted on August 25, 2004 12:46 PM — 198.207.0.5 — link — abuse?
Since I was one that voted, I'll give my rationale.
I voted, at least this first poll, for how I think teams will finish the year. I sat down and projected who I thought would win each conference, and rated them accordingly.
I think that SC, UGA, OU, Maryland, WV and Iowa will be the six BCS conference winners. I see a tossup between Florida, Texas, Oregon and NC State as filling a open BCS slot. LSU are returning Natl Champs so I couldn't rate them any lower than fourth. I also see Utah and Boise State both making serious runs at being undefeated this season, and winning their conference. They'll finish in the mid to late teens, so rather than rank someone like Nebraska, Minnesota, Florida State or Michigan, all other teams I expect to be in that same range, I gave them 13 and 14 because they'll be conference winners.
My philosophy will change significantly once the games start, but for now, this is what I think the season will finish at. Take it for what it's worth.
Matt Yeager said:
posted on August 25, 2004 2:48 PM — 4.12.29.71 — link — abuse?
Louisiana State is virtually guaranteed to stay in the top 10 all year long. There's only two teams on the schedule that they have a realistic shot of losing to: Florida (who may or may not show up), and Georgia (who may be susceptible to the blitzing LSU will throw at them), plus a potential SEC championship. They'll do just fine. I think they take two of three from the Eastern teams, sweep the rest, and depending on their fate in the SEC Championship game, head for New Orleans or Miami. They're just way too talented not to, and both of their lines are sickeningly good.
Oklahoma is very talented (understatement), but I don't know if they'll give Oregon, Texas, OSU, TT, KSU, and their championship foe the respect they deserve. That's a lot of really good teams. (As a sidenote, in the Oregon@Oklahoma game, I think OU is going to win.)
USC is the trickiest. Teams making trips north to Corvallis and Pullman have a way of leaving both with a loss. Beating Washington State and Oregon State in consecutive weeks will be insanely difficult. Ironically, a lot of people consider the home date with Cal, or @ASU, to be the big games. These people are not well mentally. USC will win those two by about fourty points apiece. It's anyone's guess how they'll do in their REAL tests.
As for Boise State and Utah... BSU has two real tests, both at home (OSU, FS). Win those, and avoid a nasty slip-up to a Hawaii or something, and BSU goes undefeated. Utah has NO real tests, but the fact that they have a trio of weenies as non-conference foes isn't going to get them into a BCS bowl anyway.
Memphis I have no clue about. I think they may be only third-best in C-USA (behind Louisville and Texas Christian).
posted on August 25, 2004 3:44 PM — 168.166.80.205 — link — abuse?
I like Auburn's chances at home in the LSU game. Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for LSU and wouldn't be shocked if they run the table, but they have a very tough stretch of road games to handle.
I can't understand the thinking behind Louisville in C-USA. I watched Memphis and Miami (OH) beat the tar out of them last year, and can't see how they've improved themselves much. Louisville ranked 93rd out of 117 teams in total defense last year. Memphis and TCU don't play each other this year, so they may very well both go unbeaten in conference play.
Matt Yeager said:
posted on August 25, 2004 9:35 PM — 4.12.29.71 — link — abuse?
First off, Louisville getting the tar beaten out of it by last year's Miami team is nothing to be ashamed of. Memphis could be good, but I'm sticking by Louisville to crush the competition. They play TCU (at home) and @Memphis, and it'd be almost unthinkable for them to lose both of them. They have 9 starters back on defense, and most everyone back on offense, including that Russel guy at wide-out. Louisville should end up no worse than 10-2 after their bowl game, with TCU, @Memphis, and @Miami being the only tough games (they skip So Miss). They should win at least one of those, and really, they're talented enough to run the table if everything falls right... and you'd better believe that an undefeated team in a top 6 conference with a win at the U of Miami ends up in the Orange Bowl. That's right, I just said Louisville could get to the national championship game. =/
I also like the Tigers to win in LSU@AU.
posted on August 25, 2004 9:49 PM — 12.215.229.182 — link — abuse?
Louisville couldn't stop anybody last year (ranked near the bottom of D1A in defense) and I don't see them getting all that much better. If you give up the kind of points they did last year and not significantly upgrade your D, things don't look good. They'll win plenty of shootouts, but will struggle against good defenses like Miami, Memphis, and TCU.
TigerEducated@hotmail.com said:
posted on August 26, 2004 1:05 AM — 4.230.219.13 — link — abuse?
It's becoming old hat, Matt...But I have to point out that even as you compliment LSU, you display a lack of knowledge of the subject on which you speak.
Before I say this, let me preface this by mentioning how little I mention the PAC-10 and their football conference, other than to agree with your assessment of it being inferior in comparison to the SEC.
Having said that...Let me quote you...
"There's only two teams on the schedule that they have a realistic shot of losing to: Florida (who may or may not show up), and Georgia (who may be susceptible to the blitzing LSU will throw at them)..."
Umm...Did you see the two games that were nationally televised on CBS last year where we played Georgia? I mean, I'm serious here. Did you actually watch them?
Is there any need to ponder whether or not Greene can handle the blitzes? What in those two meetings makes you wonder?
Eli couldn't. Jason White couldn't...Joe Montana couldn't have...
I agree that LSU will be in a fight for its BCS & SEC life with that Murderer's Row of Auburn, Florida & Jawja...But, trust me when I say this...Our defense will be better this year. There is no quarterback on our schedule that can defeat us. None. Period. Point blank.
Now, last year, it was proven that Zaunbrecher could outcoach Muschamp, and honestly, Saban, too. His gameplan-which I've described here many times since-was genius and was the single best executed plan of attack all season.
Georgia & Oklahoma, as well as Ole Miss to a certain extent, tried to exploit the 4 wideout sets with the running back out of the backfield. Georgia had multiple opportunities to score when our middle linebacker didn't react properly when the back got out into the intermediate middle.
But, the Football gods shone on us. The rest of the time, the pressure we applied most every down helped make the quarterback too jittery to be able to stand in and deliver that dead duck over the middle. Eli & Leak were the only ones to do it against us.
Leak beat us, Eli fell flat on his arse. That needed to be and was corrected in the offseason.
As I've said before...The only game that scares me is Florida. They don't scare me from a coaching standpoint, as the only guy whose ever outcoached Saban isn't the OC anymore (Radio Zook demoted Zaunbrecher). They scare me from the quarterback standpoint.
Leak is the quarterback you'd create in Dr. Frankenstein's Laboratory if you were trying to make one who could beat LSU's defense. Beautiful touch. Great arm. Maturity beyond his years. Outstanding mobility. Innate playmaking feel.
When LSU created havoc, he thrived in it. Granted, he made absolutely ZERO reads against us, and was told to tuck and run after the three count or the initial read was gone. But still, his ability shone through...and it scares me this year.
Mike said:
posted on August 26, 2004 1:26 AM — 68.35.228.194 — link — abuse?
Lets douse the fire with gasoline:
1 USC- schedule like a Twinkie
2 Georgia- there time is now
3 Oklahoma- J.White has stone feet
4 LSU- New QB, same nasty defense
5 FSU- now or never
6 Iowa- Ohio State at home helps
7 Miami- Berlin needs to prove himself8-14 in no particular order
Texas- see FSU above
Michigan- dang good receivers
Cal- belive the hype, Rodgers is the truth
Ohio State- slow and steady, but they win
K-State- need a HUGE chip on their shoulders
Florida- Zook maybe the dumbest coach in football
West Virginia- should own the Big East
posted on August 26, 2004 7:19 AM — link — abuse?
OK. Enough. LSU is really good. USC is really good. The Pac 10 and the SEC are equally the best ever. Everybody happy. You go be the Sharks over there and you go be the Jets over there. :)
You'll get your shot in a week or so, Mikey. ;)
posted on August 26, 2004 10:53 AM — 4.65.110.210 — link — abuse?
Mike-regarding your review of Cal, Rodgers might be the "truth," but that is all Cal has. One QB can't win games. There is no hype, just the fact that the media needs a team if SC ends up a flop. But my question is: Why Cal? They have never been a football powerhouse and never will. Why not WSU, Oregon and for that matter OSU. And let's not forget about UCLA (besides the failure of last year, the Bruins are loaded. They have ended their QB problem, have one of the top WR in California, and were able to recruit a 5 star DB.) So as you can see, there is a huge misconception when it comes the Pac-10. Cal is not a force; their win last year against SC was a fluke. If you remember the only reason we lost was a result of a fumble on the goal line in the second overtime. (In fact, that loss was the turning point in SC's national championship run.) Aaron Rodgers might be a good QB, but his offensive line is one of the weakest in the Pac-10. And if your offensive line is weak, than your QB will be rushed and sacked a lot.
Just to clear it up for everyone, Cal is overrated.
posted on August 26, 2004 11:02 AM — 4.65.110.210 — link — abuse?
If you guys want more information on Cal please see my post: The Truth About CAL: Will the Golden Bears Live up to their Potential?
Mike said:
posted on August 27, 2004 1:41 AM — 68.35.228.194 — link — abuse?
Cal is getting hype because they have a story that sells magazines. No one on the East Coast can name one player on Wazzou except for Will Derting, and Oregon rewarded all the hype they got last year with a tremendous collapse. Aaron Rodgers and Geoff McArthur seem to be a legit combo that can threaten Southern Cal's dominance, suddenly much in doubt without Mike Williams. The fact is that once you get past SC, the Pac-10 is crowded with "potential" teams, with none of them looking very impressive. Last season, Oregon and Arizona State both got plenty of preseason attention only to wilt when the pressure was on. It might as well be Pete and the 9 dwarfs as far as most football fans care.
Matt Yeager said:
posted on August 27, 2004 1:36 PM — 4.12.29.71 — link — abuse?
And it's their loss, because they're going to miss a couple of really, really good NW teams, Oregon State and Washington State. OSU's non-conference schedule is ridiculous, and they'll be very lucky to enter their conference slate at 2-1. But then they get EVERYBODY who's ANYBODY at home, including their Civil War foe, Oregon. Their defense is going to be outstanding, and Corvallis remains a very, very tough place to win for visiting teams. Washington State has the easiest non-conference schedule in the Pac 10, they skip California, and USC, OU, and UW are all at home. The only tough trip is, you guessed it, @OSU.
The Pac 10 will be very, very interesting this year.
Matt Yeager said:
posted on August 28, 2004 3:06 PM — 4.12.29.71 — link — abuse?
Utah doesn't really deserve a top 14 spot, because they don't actually play anybody. When a 4-win Texas A@M team at home is your toughest test out-of-conference, and you're playing in the 8th or 9th best conference, you're not going to prove to anyone that you're top 14 quality. (Top 14 quality... doesn't that sound funny?)
posted on August 29, 2004 12:13 AM — 69.73.43.133 — link — abuse?
I'll grant you the weak schedule, but I'd say the MWC is closer to the 6th or 7th best conference.
I was just pointing out how the results would have been if I had put in my $0.02 worth, as I will in the future polls.
Utah would have been up near Washington State ( Though WSU would have gone up too... )
Matt Yeager said:
posted on August 29, 2004 1:08 AM — 4.12.29.71 — link — abuse?
It's definitely presumptuous to rank conferences now, but you have to assume that the MW is worse than the 5 major conferences, C-USA (with three teams that would be pretty good in any BCS conference, and a host of teams that contend for bowls in any of them), and the Big East, which is quite simply top to bottom better than the Mountain West. Depending on how good the MAC is this year, the MW may be as far down as 9th.
posted on August 29, 2004 11:50 AM — 69.73.43.133 — link — abuse?
Lets agree on this...
ACC and SEC #1 and #2
BIG 12 #3
BIG 10 and PAC 10 #4 and #5
Big East, C-USA, MAC and MWC #6-#9
WAC #10
Sun Belt #11This is how I see the conference picture right now. Conferences on the same line are too close to distinguish, and are arranged alphabetically.
posted on August 29, 2004 11:56 AM — link — abuse?
Matt's right - way to early. Let's go with:
ACC, Big 10, Bix XII, Pac 10, SEC are tied for #1.
Big East is barely #6.
All the rest aren't.
posted on August 29, 2004 12:48 PM — 4.65.110.210 — link — abuse?
I'll second that Kevin.
Please note that all comments are subject to the Fanblogs Comment Policy.
TigerEducated said:
posted on August 24, 2004 10:29 PM — 4.230.219.158 — link — abuse?Hey, Dave Frey, if you're out there...Get a clue, or go buy the board game...
LSU #8?
I'm sorry, but that's just simply off-base.