November 8, 2008

Saturday Night Rantings

With the Penn State loss we are all clear for an SEC vs Big 12 South national championship game.

I suppose Florida could lose to FSU (for example) and then turn around and upset Alabama in the SEC championship game. Alternatively, Alabama could lose to Auburn then beat Florida in the SEC Championship game. This would make a Big 12 South vs Big 12 South national championship game. This would likely put the SEC #2 in the Fiesta Bowl.

While permutations can still be found to get USC in, the odds are so remote these are negligible. It is significantly more likely that USC loses the PAC 10 and goes to the Fiesta Bowl. The calls for a USC vs SEC match up, and historical BCS non AQ success in the Fiesta Bowl, might send them to the Sugar Bowl in this case.

Michigan State looks significantly more likely to win the Big 10 with Penn State's loss to Iowa, but would still need Ohio State to lose to either Illinois or Michigan. This would knock Penn State and Ohio State out of the top 14, leaving Michigan State as the only big 10 team in the top 14. One of these three teams will be in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State or Michigan State could end up as an at large in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl, if USC wins the PAC 10 or falls out of the top 14.

The ACC and Big East have too many teams still in play to say anything really, but I don't see a path for either to get a team other than their champion BCS Eligible.

While it is significantly more likely that only one outsider gets into a BCS bowl, two are not out of the question. Utah would need to lose to both SDSU and BYU, plus losses by all other contenders, for no BCS outsider to get in.

My BCS top 15 Projections for tomorrow:
1) Alabama 2) Texas Tech 3) Texas 4) Florida 5) Oklahoma 6) USC 7) Utah 8) Penn State 9) Boise State 10) Ohio State 11) Georgia 12) Oklahoma State 13) Missouri 14) TCU 15) BYU

I am not as good as BCS GURU. Florida and Oklahoma are really close, as are TCU, BYU and Michigan State. Penn State could land on either side of Utah or Boise State as well.

Projected BCS Bowls:

NC: Texas Tech (60%) vs Alabama (45%); Texas 40%, Florida 40%, Oklahoma 15%

Rose: USC (80%) vs Penn State (50%); Ohio State 30%, MSU 20%, Oregon State 20%

Fiesta Bowl: Utah (50%) vs Texas (40%); Boise State 20%, Texas Tech 20%, Missouri 15%, Oklahoma 10%, Ohio State 10%, MSU 10%, Georgia 10%, USC 5%, TCU 5%, Florida 5%

Sugar Bowl: Florida (50%) vs Ohio State (20%); Alabama 50%, MSU 20%, Big East 20%, Boise State 15%, USC 10%, Utah 10%, BYU 5%

Orange Bowl: ACC (100%) vs Big East(80%), BYU 5%, Ball State 5%, TCU 5%, Boise State 5%

Comments:

Saturday Night Rantings
With the Penn State loss we are all clear for an SEC vs Big 12 South national championship game. I suppose Florida could lose to FSU (for example) and then turn around and upset Alabama in the SEC championship game. Alternatively, Alabama could lose to Auburn then beat Florida in the SEC Championship game. This would make a Big 12 South vs Big 12 South national championship game. This would likely put the SEC #2 in the Fiesta Bowl. While permutations can still be found to get USC in, the odds are so remote these are negligible. It is significantly more likely that USC loses the PAC 10 and goes to the Fiesta Bowl. The calls for a USC vs SEC match up, and historical BCS non AQ success in the Fiesta Bowl, might send them to the Sugar Bowl in this case. Michigan State looks significantly more likely to win the Big 10 with Penn State's loss to Iowa, but would still need Ohio State to lose to either Illinois or Michigan. This would knock Penn State and Ohio State out of the top 14, leaving Michigan State as the only big 10 team in the top 14. One of these three teams will be in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State or Michigan State could end up as an at large in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl, if USC wins the PAC 10 or falls out of the top 14. The ACC and Big East have too many teams still in play to say anything really, but I don't see a path for either to get a team other than their champion BCS Eligible. While it is significantly more likely that only one outsider gets into a BCS bowl, two are not out of the question. Utah would need to lose to both SDSU and BYU, plus losses by all other contenders, for no BCS outsider to get in. My BCS top 15 Projections for tomorrow: 1) Alabama 2) Texas Tech 3) Texas 4) Florida 5) Oklahoma 6) USC 7) Utah 8) Penn State 9) Boise State 10) Ohio State 11) Georgia 12) Oklahoma State 13) Missouri 14) TCU 15) BYU I am not as good as BCS GURU. Florida and Oklahoma are really close, as are TCU, BYU and Michigan State. Penn State could land on either side of Utah or Boise State as well. Projected BCS Bowls: NC: Texas Tech (60%) vs Alabama (45%); Texas 40%, Florida 40%, Oklahoma 15% Rose: USC (80%) vs Penn State (50%); Ohio State 30%, MSU 20%, Oregon State 20% Fiesta Bowl: Utah (50%) vs Texas (40%); Boise State 20%, Texas Tech 20%, Missouri 15%, Oklahoma 10%, Ohio State 10%, MSU 10%, Georgia 10%, USC 5%, TCU 5%, Florida 5% Sugar Bowl: Florida (50%) vs Ohio State (20%); Alabama 50%, MSU 20%, Big East 20%, Boise State 15%, USC 10%, Utah 10%, BYU 5% Orange Bowl: ACC (100%) vs Big East(80%), BYU 5%, Ball State 5%, TCU 5%, Boise State 5%