December 8, 2008

Bowl Pick'em Tips

If you have not already, you can sign up Here to join the bowl pick'em.

Go here to adjust your picks.

The goal is to pick the winner, it is not against the spread. Instead you arrange the bowls in order from the ones your are most confidence about to ones you determined your picks by a coin flip. Each bowl you get right gets you the number of confidence points for the spot you placed that bowl.

The player with the most points wins.

Advice
Ok, I stunk up the weekly pick'em, but I am offering my advice anyways...

Usually about 1/4th of the bowls end up being upsets. This means 8 or 9 upset picks are a reasonable number to have. Less than this you are being to cautious, more than this you are throwing caution to the wind. As it stands now I have 12. I pick with my heart, assign confidence with my reason.

Once you make your picks, a good start is to arrange the bowls by line. Latter you can reevaluate the ones you are less sure about with the percentages and typical confidence levels that will begin to appear.

The games where you agree with the line, that you think you know about and that are a heavy favorite should be a the top.

Next you should have your upset picks you are sure of, this is where your points will be made to separate you from the pack, if you put them at the bottom they will get you less separation.

Then you should have the games where you are unsure, but the line and pick distribution are pointing one direction. Trust the masses.

Finally, the games where you don't have a clue and the opinions are split should come last.

You now know what I do so do something different. My pick'em score can vouch for your decision to ignore my advice.

Comments:

Bowl Pick'em Tips
If you have not already, you can sign up Here to join the bowl pick'em. Go here to adjust your picks. The goal is to pick the winner, it is not against the spread. Instead you arrange the bowls in order from the ones your are most confidence about to ones you determined your picks by a coin flip. Each bowl you get right gets you the number of confidence points for the spot you placed that bowl. The player with the most points wins. Advice Ok, I stunk up the weekly pick'em, but I am offering my advice anyways... Usually about 1/4th of the bowls end up being upsets. This means 8 or 9 upset picks are a reasonable number to have. Less than this you are being to cautious, more than this you are throwing caution to the wind. As it stands now I have 12. I pick with my heart, assign confidence with my reason. Once you make your picks, a good start is to arrange the bowls by line. Latter you can reevaluate the ones you are less sure about with the percentages and typical confidence levels that will begin to appear. The games where you agree with the line, that you think you know about and that are a heavy favorite should be a the top. Next you should have your upset picks you are sure of, this is where your points will be made to separate you from the pack, if you put them at the bottom they will get you less separation. Then you should have the games where you are unsure, but the line and pick distribution are pointing one direction. Trust the masses. Finally, the games where you don't have a clue and the opinions are split should come last. You now know what I do so do something different. My pick'em score can vouch for your decision to ignore my advice.