November 7, 2005
Flag on the Play: Brown Water Edition
A few weeks back, I sat down and looked at my BCS Crystal Ball. As I warned back then, that thing has been cracked before, but that's what you get when you're making predictions in October, right?!
Well, now that it's November, the situation isn't much more clear. In fact, the water is so murky, I'm almost afraid to dip my hand into that brown water for fear of pulling out, well, another turd of a prediction, actually. Almost afraid, I said, with the emphasis on almost....
BCS Bowl Preview
Rose Bowl - Texas vs. USC
Let's face it, there's not much that stands in the way of this game. Texas has Kansas, rival Texas A&M, and the Big XII championship game ahead. As any Buffs fan can tell you, there's something familiar about a potential Texas-Colorado rematch - just ask Major Applewhite. That said, I think Texas gets through unscathed this time around. Meanwhile out in Trojanville, USC has some decent meat left on the bone, with Cal, Fresno State, and UCLA. A loss in any of those games would be a major upset, and I just don't see it. Hook 'em! and Fight On!
Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame vs Texas Tech
The Tostitos folks get first pick for losing Texas to the Rose, so if Notre Dame can handle the pez left in their schedule, the Irish will be snatched up by the Fiesta Bowl. The only remaining drama is - who the heck is Notre Dame going to play? Texas Tech, Oregon, Virginia Tech and Alabama could all be one-loss non-conference champs. Given it's relationship with the Big XII and the fact that the Red Raiders would travel well to ease the pain of the somewhat light turnout from last year's game, you have to think that the Fiesta goes all grande doce and picks Texas Tech. (Man, Texas Tech in a BCS game?! I can't even believe I'm typing that.) The wild card here is that the Fiesta could try to make a play for a "Rose Bowl East" and pair Oregon & Penn State and cut a back room deal to put Notre Dame in the Orange with Miami, but I think the hype of the Charlie & the Irish will be just too strong to resist.
Orange Bowl - Miami vs Penn State
As much as I would love to see the Depends Bowl with Bowden & Paterno, I don't think the 'Noles are up to a rematch with Miami. After Miami gets through with their schedule and ((gulp)) casts away FSU, the 'Canes are a lock for the all-familiar 'holiday at home' game. And since Ashlee Simpson was kind of a bust for halftime last year, the Orange Bowl should be more judicious with their picks, using the #2 selection spot to gobble up JoPa's Penn State club. The last time PSU graced Joe Robbie Stadium it was a Blockbuster Bowl debacle, but the Nittany Lions are a much better squad this year and it should be one heck of a game.
Sugar Bowl - LSU vs West Virginia
Nothing could bring the spirit of New Orleans to Atlanta's Georgia Dome like a visit from the ol' purple & gold. And, since the Sugar Bowl gets the short straw this year, it looks like they'll get caught standing when the music stops - inheriting the best team from the Big East. Having won the SEC title in the Dome a few weeks earlier, a second game in Georgia will have the feel of a home game for the Tigers. LSU has a tough road to the BCS, but the Tigers have the talent & the firepower to beat Alabama & whomever survives the SEC East. For their part, West Virginia has a relatively smooth road ahead - don't get burned by Cincy & Pitt, and man up for South Florida. As much as I may hate hearing about it (over & over & over again), I think West Virginia can get it done & get to the Sugar Bowl. The good news is that if any team's fans can challenge LSU's fans drink for drink, it's WVU. And nothing against South Florida, but --c'mon-- the Sugar Bowl has been through enough this year without having to endure the Bulls as the Big East champs. Think it through.
Again, the water's pretty dark & I definitely can't see the bottom of this tank, so you'll just have to take these projections at face value - buyer beware! - except for those Rice fans in the crowd. You're team is out of it.
Comments:
posted on November 7, 2005 6:19 PM — link — abuse?Kevin Donahue said:
Deo - Anybody who doesn't like me picking LSU over Alabama is going to be REALLY po'd when they see my poll ballot tomorrow.
Ghost - There is nothing (outside of rational common sense) that would stop the Fiesta from taking Tech. They would be an eligible at-large, in my hypothetical, as would Oregon, Alabama, and maybe a couple others.
posted on November 7, 2005 8:39 PM — link — abuse?
Jeff - the ACC Champion is the host of the Orange Bowl in any year in which the Orange is not the BCS title host.
From the BCS media guide:
BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: When not hosting the national championship game or having a conference champion participating in the national championship game, the BCS will have the following conference champions serve as host teams: Rose Bowl - Big Ten and Pacific-10; Nokia Sugar - Southeastern; FedEx Orange - Atlantic Coast; Tostitos Fiesta - Big 12.
Tim said:
posted on November 8, 2005 1:01 AM — 68.109.149.221 — link — abuse?
why wouldnt Ohio state be in the Fiesta if they win out. Tech will lose to OU and Oregon with a back up QB wont win out. and V Tech wont beat Fla State. That leaves Ohioh state as long as they get by Michigan which is possible,,,,remember the last time Ohio State was in the Fiessta bowl it was for a national championship that alot of Ohioh State fans were at, and with Troy smith and the QB situation finally figures out they should coast the rest of the way.
posted on November 8, 2005 8:21 AM — link — abuse?
Allen - Great question. Right now, it's still a little too early to be certain. I think a one-loss 'Bama, one-loss VaTech, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas Tech are all in play until November shakes out. I think the Fiesta might give some serious looks to Oregon, but Tech did travel well to the Holiday Bowl last year. It's still a toss up, but I think the Notre Dame side is pretty solid.
Bird-dog said:
posted on November 8, 2005 1:19 PM — 68.221.196.126 — link — abuse?
Wow, USC-Texas, big shock there, I'm with the guy who thinks USC will drop one. I am unquestionably a Bama homer, but that means I have also watched all their games this year. The offense is not as bad as everyone thinks, Darby is 100+ yards every game and our qb and recievers are excellent, its the O-line that is giving us the biggest problem right now. The defense will not let LSU, AU or GA put up enough points to get any of those games out of reach and the offense can score enough to win. Plus, if we are hitting on all cylinders we will blow them out like Fla. I can't make much argument against the lack of respect we are getting right now, but (unlike Texas) I don't have to, Bama will either prove itself or not finishing out the season we'll just wait and see. Nevertheless, our solid but lackluster performance this year, if UT and USC win out strong, will give us license to bitch about the BCS but little argument that we are should be one of the top two.
Predictions:
LSU will not beat Bama this weekend, I am more worried about Auburn in two weeks.
Bama wins out through SEC champtionship game with at least one shut out and one blow out.
USC steps in it, Bama-UT in the Rose Bowl.
gaffbags said:
posted on November 9, 2005 12:44 AM — 70.110.18.99 — link — abuse?
I would really like to believe that either 'Bama or Georgia (with their one, Shockley-less loss) would have a better chance at a BCS Bowl than Texas Tech (granted, if LSU or Bama beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game they would be a 2-loss team). I appreciate the financial aspect, but TT has not played any quality competition (other than the Longhorns, who tore them to shreds). If Tech wins-out maybe (maybe) people would be interested in seeing them play Notre Dame, but I would categorically still rather watch whoever the second-best SEC team is play the Irish - regardless of how the rest of the season plays out.
Funk Grenade said:
posted on November 9, 2005 12:54 AM — 70.110.18.99 — link — abuse?
Texas Tech? Oregon? Really - if either of these teams ends up in a BCS bowl over a team like Georgia, LSU, or Alabama it's a travesty. Both the Pac-10 and Big XII have revealled themselves to be mediocre conferences this season (UCLA was considered the 2nd best team in the PAC-10 - despite the fact that they have no defense to speak of - until they got shellacked by a subpar Arizona squad). Last time the SEC had two teams in BCS bowl was 2001 - and both Florida and LSU rolled the competition. Quite frankly I'd rather see a SEC team that lost the SEC Championship play as an at-large than the second-best PAC-10 teams, or a Big XII team that didn't even make it to the championship game, 9 times out of 10.
war eagle 2004 said:
posted on November 11, 2005 10:19 PM — 67.166.240.114 — link — abuse?
I guess every one forgat that auburn could beat georgia and alabama and lsu could lose.What a joke it would be to have TTU in a bcs game this shit is realy getting crazy.A sec team with 4 loses is better than ttu.
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deo in sin city said:
posted on November 7, 2005 4:31 PM — 68.108.117.180 — link — abuse?better be careful kev,
all those fairweather fans in alabama might send you a bunch of hatemail for picking LSU over BAMA for the sugar bowl......
remember that bama d- can score points even if their offense can't.......
other than that, sounds like your predictions seem pretty logical......
mwa-hahahhahahaha......."bama d- can score points even if their o can't," i kill myself......
FIGHT ON MEN of TROY