August 22, 2007
New kickoff rule: Much ado about nothing?
The boys at CFBStats.com have sorted through the last two seasons kickoffs in effort to see what impact the new kickoff rules will have on the game.
To hear the coaches explain it, it's a game-changer.
"(The kickoff rule) is going to be one of the most significant rule changes to come about in recent years, maybe in a decade, in college football," Kentucky coach Rich Brooks said. "Very few teams will have a guy who can kick it into the touchback area or out of the end zone."Georgia coach Mark Richt said his team only returned about 25 percent of kickoffs last season, but he expects his team to return 75-90 percent of kicks this year.
"I wouldn't say it's doubly important," Richt said. "It's probably going to be three or four times as important.
"You think if you move the ball back five, you're probably going to get five more yards of field position. My guess is it will be more like 10 to 15 yards of field position because that kickoff return is going to create a lot more space."
UF coach Urban Meyer said he expects the average kickoff to land at about the 9-yard line as opposed to about the 4-yard line.
"I think you might see better personnel on kickoff," Meyer said. "You might see more starters. You might see better schemes... You have to have a horse to kick that thing out of the end zone now."
Brooks believes teams may be forced to resort to "gimmicks" on kickoff coverage, claiming there may be an increase in squib and pooch kicks.
"There may be some people that decide they want to kick it out of bounds and give it to the team on the 35-yard line rather than kicking it deep and having a return out to the 40 or 45," he said.
But when you look at the stats -- really look at them -- I'm thinking the new rule is much ado about nothing.
According to CFBStats.com, last year's 14,496 kickoffs from the 35-yard line resulted in 4,334 touchbacks (29.9%), with an average starting position at the 26.99, with 72 kicks returned for touchdowns (0.77%).
When you compare that with the 160 kickoffs from the 30-yard line (which occurred as a result of a penalty), the numbers really aren't substantially different. Last year's 160 kickoffs from the 30-yard line resulted in 14 touchbacks (8.8%), with an average starting position at the 32.12, with only 1 kick returned for touchdowns (0.72%).
I'm not a statistics major, but if you were to tell me that the difference in moving the ball back five yards was five yards in field position, I would say... umm.... "duh".
But I don't see that five yard differential being a game-changer. The only substantial differences I can see are that teams will may attempt fewer onside kicks and that coaches will be pounding the "no celebration penalty" mantra into players heads year-round. I think we'll see a minor reduction in the length of the game, since the ball will be in play more often instead of touchbacks, but that difference is likely to be three minutes a game, if that.
Maybe I'm wrong and we'll see a substantial difference in the game, but -- on the surface -- I just don't see what all the fuss is about.
Comments:
SEMINOLE_NATION said:
posted on August 22, 2007 10:25 AM — 71.14.108.232 — link — abuse?
In Other News:
FSU has received word from the NCAA that Sebastian Janikowski is eligible to play again. The NCAA granted FSU's request to re-add Janikowski to the roster in light of the new kick off rule changes and inconsistent kicking. When asked about the new kick off rule after SJ was reinstated, Bowden said, "Dadgumit, I don't care if they move it back to the dadgum 20. We're gunna kick the dang ball hard and watch people take a dang knee."
The only two time Lou Groza Award winner in history was notorious for kicking the ball through the other field goal post on kick offs. This clearance by the NCAA should prove to provide FSU a big advantage on kickoffs.
Then I woke up.
TrojanHorse said:
posted on August 22, 2007 10:49 AM — 132.228.195.206 — link — abuse?
I don't know about you but going to a 9% TB rate from a 30% TB rate is having 3X more returns and that to me should have a significant impact. That five yard difference in FP is the difference between going for a FG and punting. Even at 3 and out; if you start at your 32-41 yard line (assuming no net loss on the 3 & out series) and a 40 yard net punt is a much better chance putting the ball inside the opponent 20 as opposed to little likelihood of that if you start from your 26 yard line and go 3 and out..
the Field position game could be drastically switched here.. and the better teams that are deeper and have a better selection of return men to choose from as well as a deeper selection of KO coverage men to choose from will have a significant advantage..
Finally, this is just a guess but I'm guessing that a few kickers can still get the TB's and those teams will have a significant advantage.. i'd almost kick it out of bounds and let them have it at the 35 every time if I couldn't field a good KO coverage team
posted on August 22, 2007 11:06 AM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?War Eagle Atlanta said:
The rule change opens the door for more kickoff returns, one of the most exciting plays in football. What's not to love? It gets boring watching every kick sail out of the end zone, even when your team is doing the kicking. Plus, it does speed up the game.
Swamp_chomper said:
posted on August 22, 2007 12:48 PM — 166.70.2.183 — link — abuse?
I'm not a statistics major, but if you were to tell me that the difference in moving the ball back five yards was five yards in field position, I would say... umm.... "duh".
According to Gator coaches, The kick will have a different "shape" (trajectory). Kickers won't be coached to try to kick the lower long-ball shape. They'll be coached (on the percentages) to kick the higher shape. They'll give up a little distance in exchange for more hang-time (to allow for better downfield coverage)
Did y'all think Gator coaches wuz dumb? No son, they ain't dumb...
Cane Mutiny said:
posted on August 22, 2007 3:46 PM — 65.12.247.141 — link — abuse?
I agree with you, I think it'll do some difference, but nothing as drastic as everyone's been suggesting. I like those stats a lot, they back up that point well.
Oh TrojanHorse, going from 30% TB to 9% TB is only 1.3x as many returns...sorry, but I don't catch those mistakes too often, and I feel like I hafta point em out when I do...
IBleedOrange said:
posted on August 22, 2007 7:08 PM — 71.52.46.154 — link — abuse?
I think I'm gonna consistantly bet the over for the 1st few weeks and see if it works. Better field position should equal more points scored. That's pretty simple math right?
I hope Fulmer is working hard on their kick off coverage and return teams because they've never been very good under his staff. This rule change may magnify the impact of that shortcoming.
Joe said:
posted on August 22, 2007 8:11 PM — 65.32.170.228 — link — abuse?
Carlos Huerta???
Was he a number # 1 draft choice in the NFL and the highest kicker ever drafted? I hadn't read that?
I also believe Jano has the highest contract ever paid to an NFL kicker.
His college stats:
1999- Number one among kickers in the Nation in scoring 23 made in 30 attempts avg 2 Fgs a game to rank #1
1998- 27-32 for also better than 2 per game.
While he only made 66 field goals at FSU in three years that is an average of 22 per year.Now Huerta never kicked more than 21 in a season but over a 4 year career did manage to kick 73. I disagree that he would have won the Groza award as he never led the NCAA in FG's in any year.
His best year 1988 when he was his Freshman year when he kicked those 21. Seriously, doubt that would have been enough to get him the Groza award. IMHO since the leading kicker that year converted 24 of 27.
Huerta had a very uneventful career in the NFL lasting only 2 years.
Say what you will about Jano's off field issues but there are reasons why he was chosen the all time greatest kicker of college football history.His statistics and Groza awards most certainly bear that designation out.
Will any gator fan forget the 54 yd FG he kicked after a time delay penalty move it back 5 yds? Ole Jano promptly kicked it twice for the unbeaten wire to wire National champions. Was that the game he gave a good ole Chomp to the gator fans? Now that was funny!!Joe said:
posted on August 22, 2007 8:14 PM — 65.32.170.228 — link — abuse?
Of course with all that being said, Jano was at best at kicking them deep and non-returnable. What an unbelievable weapon! What a leg!! Haven't heard much about him getting trouble lately. Hopefully, he finally has gotten his drinking under control.
cardman steve said:
posted on August 22, 2007 8:53 PM — 74.131.212.190 — link — abuse?
BEING A LOUISVILLE FAN THE NAME RICH BROOKS JUST MAKES ME MORE HUNGRY WHEN 8/15/07. U OF K HAS SOME GOOD KICK RETURNERS AS WELL. THE RULE WILL HELP MY CARDS WITH GUY AND SPILLMAN AS WELL. I CAN FORESEE ALOT MORE WILDER GAMES AND SOME UPSETS DUE TO THIS RULE.
Zac said:
posted on August 22, 2007 9:21 PM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
There's only one way to combat this rule, if you're team is up against a real good return team. Have your kicker place it out of bounds below the 35 yard line. By rule, they'll spot it at the 35, and your defense can take over. Of course, if you have a decent cover team, what need worry you?
Cock'n'Fire South Carolina 101 said:
posted on August 22, 2007 11:51 PM — 96.10.98.113 — link — abuse?
post 13
about the last thing you said something very similar happened this year at the florida south carolina game which woulda meant them losing...im not talking about the last play kick, im talking about when RYAN SUCCOP (remember that name he is a beast...incredible kicker maybe a groza withtin next 2 years)
kicked a 55 yarder through the uprights to give us the lead however, the officials called a gay delay of game call on south carolina too even though we still had another second to snap the ball when we did...so the 55 yarder was good but delay of game made us move back to a 60 yarder...ryan succop still has the leg to kick that but spurrier didnt want to risk it because the kept blocking our kicks...2 fgs and an xp got blocked in that game...so florida would not be national champs if they hadnt got that luck with the feild goal blockingMike's Dogs said:
posted on August 23, 2007 7:00 AM — 76.24.85.72 — link — abuse?
There were way too many touchbacks in college football. The "NFL" kickoff rule won't penalize teams with great kickers. It will help them as they will continue to get touchbacks while their opposition give them an additional 5 yards.
gatorhippy said:
posted on August 23, 2007 8:09 AM — 70.121.185.56 — link — abuse?
Joe (#13):
Nowhere in your little tirade about Janikowski do I see any mention of NCAA records...
Huerta's consistency was impeccable as he still owns the record for consecutive PAT's and is ranked second on the NCAA D-1 all time scoring list...
Both of which have stood for over 15 years...
Even past Janikoswki...
Of note would be the fact that when Huerta played for Miami they usually scored touchdowns and had little need for Huerta...
But when they did, Carlos delivered...
Given the fact that the Groza was actually an idea of a South Florida sportswriter first pitched in the summer 1991...
Their is little doubt when the award was conceptualized that it was to make up for the lack of one being able to be given to one of the most accurate kickers in CFB history...
gatorstud said:
posted on August 23, 2007 8:59 AM — 69.95.111.248 — link — abuse?
i have to take my hats off to jano....he was a hell of a kicker....and a drinker....i can't even remember ever seeing a kicker like jano.....a cannon for a leg.....if he could of stayed off the boooze...he could of been the best in the nfl also.....
jmho
go gators....and hokies
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gatorhippy said:
posted on August 22, 2007 9:15 AM — 209.16.115.5 — link — abuse?The bigger difference comes from the series after the kickoof is taken...
If the offense has to punt, it'll possibly make it a bit easier to pin the ears back on the other team with a good punt inside the ten...