December 26, 2007
2007 Final Strength of Schedule Rankings
With the season behind us, it's time to look back at the numbers and compare the 2007 final strength of schedule rankings.
The NCAA final rankings put the Virginia Tech Hokies in first place, helped in large part by the LSU game and their two games with Boston College. The rest of the rankings are available in pdf format here.
1. Virginia Tech
2. Oklahoma State
3. Texas A&M
4. Illinois
5. Florida
...
119. Memphis
Via Get The Picture, Phil Steele's final rankings have the Washington Huskies checking in at the #1 spot. Steele uses " 8 sets of power ratings, combines them and factors in every team’s schedule this year", which makes his rankings "superior" to the NCAA's own rankings (at least according to Steele, himself).
1. Washington
2. Oklahoma State
3. Nebraska
4. UCLA
5. Arizona
...
119. Hawaii
However, over the year's I've tended to put the most stock in Jeff Sagarin's ratings for USA Today, for many reasons - not the least of which is that he is one of the only independent stats guys who makes his living on his stats work.
1. Washington
2. UCLA
3. Nebraska
4. Cal
5. Arizona
...
137. Hawaii
(Note: Since Sagarin mixes the results for both FBS and FCS divisions, the lowest ranked FBS team is represented as number 137.)
So... what are the takeaways?
- The PAC10 was -- once again -- a pretty salty conference. Sagarin ranked them as a very close number three conference top to bottom (behind the SEC and Big East).
- Playing poorly against a tough schedule won't earn you any sympathy points. Approximately 30% of the coaches in the "toughest schedule derby" ended up on the street at the end of the year. Huskies HC Ty Willingham was pushed to retool his staff (again) and life hasn't been real rosy for Zona HC Mike Stoops, either.
- Regardless of the methodology, Hawaii played a weak schedule. The Warriors were either dead last or close to last in every single schedule ranking. I understand that UH fans want some respect, but... you have to earn it. Acing first grade math doesn't win you the Nobel prize.
- The top teams don't always face the "gauntlet". While LSU checks in with a top 25 schedule (#21 - Sagarin), the Ohio State Buckeyes had a much easier path to the BCS with the #62 ranked schedule (again, Sagarin ranking).
Comments:
posted on December 26, 2007 3:11 PM — 205.188.116.136 — link — abuse?War Eagle Atlanta
said:
No, Rammer, looks like you're right. I was reading the actual overall Sagarin rating for Auburn, which is 19th. Their schedule is ranked 47th. I thought the list was schedule only...
I should just shut up now...
Zac said:
posted on December 26, 2007 8:23 PM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
WVU_Lifer, neither Jeff Sagarin nor Phil Steel saw WVU's or OK's schedules as being all that impressive (Sagarin 42/59, Steel 53/59).
It's Cincinnati's schedule strength that baffles me. I thought their schedule would be ranked much higher than 50's to 60's. Even Rutgers' schedule is ranked tougher and I thought their schedule was much easier by comparision.
badgerballer
posted on December 27, 2007 1:44 AM — 70.59.192.32 — link — abuse? said:
The rampant subjectivity of virtually everything that is college football, never ceases to amaze. How can Virginia Tech be sitting there at #1 at the very top of the heap/top of this thread, then be ringing the bell at #36 in each of the following two rankings???? (Phil's and Sagarin's) WTH?!?Zac said:
posted on December 27, 2007 4:44 PM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
WVU_Lifer, I live in SE Nebraska within 10 miles of the Missouri River. In that part of the country (from Sioux Falls, SD and on south) the Missouri River is down right ugly. I mean it is seriously filthy.
My 1st time driving through central S Dakota on I-90, I thought the highway was crossing a big beautiful clear green lake. I was so taken by it; I nearly drove off the road. It was the Missouri River. I didn't know it could look so good.
There are a lot of interesting little places, not to mention tourist traps, between Sioux Falls and Rapid City. (You have to stop in Wahl.) My favorite is Badlands National Park. Once into Rapid, you have a choice to head south on Highway 16 to the "Needles" Parkway, the Crazy Horse Memorial, Rushmore, and Col. Custer St Park, or north up Col. Custer Highway, into Wyoming and on to Devils Tower. Beautiful country, all of it.
Now, here's the real kicker. If you're looking for a decent school to send your kids, the School of Mines & Technology in Rapid is outstanding. (My oldest son attends it; I'm insanely jealous.) They even have football; it's NAIA, but it's still fun to watch. Enjoy!!!
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War Eagle Atlanta 
said:
posted on December 26, 2007 2:47 PM — 205.188.116.136 — link — abuse?Auburn is pretty solid with a #19 ranking with Sagarin. I'm actually surprised that LSU only had a #21 Sagarin. But on second thought, they played virtually the same schedule as Auburn, but only made it look close with 5 games that were losses or were close to being losses.