November 27, 2007
Road to a split championship?
Given the penchant that top 5 teams have developed of losing to unranked teams, one must like West Virginia's chances of dropping the ball this weekend. Oklahoma defeating Missouri would hardly be an upset.
This would leave Ohio State vs Pick a team in the National Championship game. I guarantee that team would not be Hawaii, but they could be as high as BCS #8 if this happens. They are higher in the Human polls than they are in the BCS standings already.
What if Ohio State then loses the championship game, and Hawaii wins a BCS bowl? Hawaii would be undefeated and every other bowl subdivision team would have at least two losses.
The BCS champion will be the team that defeated Ohio State. With no undefeated teams, or even one loss teams to choose from, except Hawaii, might enough AP voters decide to cast a protest vote for Hawaii to put them on top?
Unlike computers, human voters can respond strongly against percieved injustices. Hawaii may have played a championship subdivision strength schedule but, unlike Appalatian State who also has 2 losses, they did not lose a single game, much less two.
Would thay have gone undefeated if they were in a BCS conference? Probably not, but I am sure they would welcome an invite to join one and see!
In closing a few BCS Bowl stats to consider:
Non-BCS teams in BCS Bowls: 2-0
Average MOV of Non-BCS teams in a BCS Bowl: +14.5
Last time a non BCS team won a national championship: 1984
Comments:
Cane Mutiny
posted on November 27, 2007 9:24 PM — 65.12.247.141 — link — abuse?
said:
IF West Virginia lost to Pitt, and IF Oklahoma beat Mizzou, IF "The" Ohio State lost in the National Championship, and most of all, IF Hawaii can beat a BCS team in its bowl, I could definitely see Hawaii getting a good amount of first place votes, and deservedly so.
I expect Oklahoma to beat Missouri and Ohio State to lose in the N.C., but a West Virginia loss and Hawaii BCS Bowl win may be asking for too much, even in this season.
It's not anywhere near out of the question, though. We'll see come this weekend if Pitt can pull off the upset.
It's great to be a Miami Hurricane - R.I.P. #26 Sean Taylor. You're in all of our prayers.
posted on November 28, 2007 9:33 AM — link — abuse?Kevin Donahue
said:
Jonsey - Yes, Georgia could play for the national championship, but the scenario requires an awful lot of chips to fall into place. First, WVU has to lose to Pitt & Mizzou has to lose to OU by a reasonable amount - not a blowout. That would put Ohio State into the title game. Then LSU should lose to Tennessee in a close game (thus boosting UGa in the computers).
Then the pollsters have to decide that a 2-loss Georgia (who lost to 6-6 SC and by three TDs to Tenn) is more deserving than a 2-loss Oklahoma (who beat the #1 team... twice) or perhaps even 2-loss USC, if they stomp a mud-hole in UCLA.
It's very iffy, but it is possible.
gatorstud said:
posted on November 28, 2007 9:41 AM — 69.95.111.248 — link — abuse?
jonsey #5....with the dawgs sitting in the 4 spot....it would only make sense that if w. virginia & missouri lose then o. state and georgia would move up.....but you throw in the fact that they are not going to be sec champs......and you have a giant freaking mess.......
but then again....nothing makes sense when it comes to the bcs system.....
go gators...and hokies
jonsey said:
posted on November 28, 2007 9:47 AM — 167.197.127.130 — link — abuse?
Well, i now know what teams to pull for. id love for the SEC to have two different teams win the NC back-to-back, but it would be even better if GA somehow won it. That would prove how crazy this year has been. a two lose team win the NC. yea, i doubt GA could get in without winning their conference, people will say they aren't the most deserving team. but i believe they are one of the best, if not the best teams in the nation right now. it's a shame. just makes me wonder who is going to be ranked at the top of the SEC next year. FL with Tim Tebow, or GA with Staford-Moreno
posted on November 28, 2007 10:02 AM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse? said:
#1) I plan to write a series of entries examining the teams considered for PAC 10 expansion in February.
While Hawaii and Boise State are high on the list of consideration, especially when one looks at football, they fall short when the whole picture is examined.
I don't expect a PAC 10 expansion anytime soon, but BYU/Utah make the most sense from the data I have collected so far.
posted on November 28, 2007 10:06 AM — link — abuse? said:
OU-Ron - I don't *think* OU can jump that many spots, but I can't swear it wouldn't happen either. If a 2-loss team goes, the Sooners can definitely try to make their case. Blasting Mizzou by 50 would be one step in the right direction, obvisouly.
posted on November 28, 2007 10:36 AM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse? said:
#9) The BCS standings get more unstable the more teams lose. As long as the teams that are expected to win do the BCS is fairly predictible.
The scenarios in play are exactly those when the teams expected to win don't, throwing a monkey wrench into the mix.
Losses by Missouri or West Virginia would put them in the sizable gap between Oklahoma and Florida.
Georgia, Kansas, VT and LSU are in a virtual tie for 4th place. This is increased by the fact that Georgia and Kansas are off and VT and LSU play a game. Wins by LSU or VT could easily put them over Georgia.
To get a more accurete view of the BCS standings add bold lines between teams with a difference of 0.06 or higher between their BCS ratings and add brackets around teams with difference of less than 0.02. A difference of 1 ranking across the board would amount to a change of 0.04.
Oklahoma would need to gain an average of 3.5 spots across the board on Georgia to pass them.
Losses by VT, LSU and USC would help Oklahoma gain significantly on Georgia. The kicker would likely be if the MOV is enough to move the polsters. Winners tend to gain on teams with a bye in BCS points, and the effect is increased the higher ranked the opponent is.
If Missouri and WV win they will play each other. If one loses, the other will play Ohio State. If they both lose nothing is certain.
Kansas can not pass Georgia with both being off. USC does not play an opponent strong enough to put them over Georgia, regardless of the outcome.
Georgia, VT, LSU and Oklahoma still have BCS championship chances alive, although very long.
Spartacus
posted on November 28, 2007 11:21 AM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
Size of victory will matter this weekend. I just don't think that it is possible for West Virginia to lose to Pitt. I do see Oklahoma beating Missouri though. But, should Pitt top Stanford for "upset of the century", then style points will definately come into play. Georgia drops because they don't play. They are way overranked anyway and that will show up in their bowl game. LSU could overwhelm Tennessee or Oklahoma do likewise to Missouri. A resounding win by either team could do it. Southern Cal has the best chance to completely annihilate UCLA - but they will not leap over LSU or Oklahoma or Ohio State no matter what they do. The Notre Dame and Nebraska season records seeled their fate. They are not close enough to make this jump.
Now, personally, this will be a year for a "mythical National Champion" for me. I won't consider that any team that plays for the NC, this year, has proven (without a doubt), that they are the best team. For me, it'll be kinda "old style", and I'll believe that whoever is most impressive in their BCS Bowl game (against the stiffest competition) will probably have been the best team overall. Right now, I think that West Virginia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, LSU, Florida and USC are all about even in terms of being the best teams in the land. I don't think that there is a clear cut leader.Tommie Trojan
Spartacus
posted on November 28, 2007 1:04 PM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
SHA:
Hey brotha, don't bogart that shine man, pass it on over to me. Let's see: just last week a whole bunch of "pollsters" had Kansas as the "best team in the country". Did you happen to watch Missouri dismantle that team? Hey, how about this one: USC ranked #1, by everybody, into the 5th week of the season. Couldn't even beat Stanford, remember? How bout Ohio State last year? Were they not rated #1 by everyone? Well, we all know how that turned out. BTW, made a small fortune pickin' Florida to cover on that one.
Dude, all your doin' is "changin' seats on the Titanic". Just because your boyz lost - doesn't mean you have to resort to "homerism". Stick with your team, man. Don't give up.
Why don't you broaden your perspectives? You can start by puttin' the plug in the jug. Take them Lynyrd Skynyrd albums and just toss em'. I'd suggest some more "inspirational" music like Metallica, Stained or Lincoln Park. This ought to help broaden your horizens. Maybe you could even get outta the house once in awhile. Go to the park. Take a class. Find a hobby.
Georgia is a fine team and will probably be favored to win the SEC East and compete for the National Championship - next year. Right now - they are about the 8th best team in the country. Your gonna be real sad if Georgia is picked to go to the Rose Bowl. I would start to sober up right now, before that fateful game, so that you will not have to try and reinsert yourself back into reality after that beatdown.Tommie Trojan
Sweet Home Alabama said:
posted on November 28, 2007 1:54 PM — 75.120.243.45 — link — abuse?
#15 WTF does this have to do with my team? Are you saying that this forum is only for each of us to comment about our own teams?
You have not heard me talk smack about Alabama or dog them. I happen to think that they don't even deserve a bowl game.
Florida is not a top team this year.
You on the other hand need to admit that USC as a national champ this year is just a pipe dream. Accept it and move on.
Spartacus
posted on November 28, 2007 2:24 PM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
SHA:
Calm down, brotha! It's just a joke, son! Okay if it'll make you feel better, I'll admit it out in the open, "USC winning the National Championship this year is but a pipe dream". Man, I feel so much better now. I sure am glad that I got that one off my chest. For a minute there, I actually thought they might have a chance, even though they lost to Stanford.
Hey, SHA, thanx for settin' me up straight. I can now return to reality.Tommie Trojan
Big O from MO said:
posted on November 28, 2007 9:44 PM — 24.107.9.241 — link — abuse?
Mizzou has a great shot at beating OU, this time it's a neutral site. The first game was at OU and Missouri's best running back was out. If they can hang on to the ball this time they have a great chance. Missouri has some quality wins this season over Illinois, Texas Tech and Kansas. Missouri was leading that last game against OU going into the 4th quarter and lost their composure. I think their coming into this game a little more mature and a lot more confident. Before the Kansas/Missouri game most people were picking Kansas and it looks like the same thing is happening this time. This weekend there could be a changing of the guard in the Big XII
OU-Ron
posted on November 28, 2007 10:26 PM — 72.198.24.199 — link — abuse? said:
Big O, I should think Mizzou has a great chance to beat OU, a team that's ranked #1 in the BCS should be able to beat any team not just OU,and it shouldn't matter if they're at home, away, or on a neutral field, but if I were you, I would wait until after the game to get your ticket to the NCG
Sweet Home Alabama said:
posted on November 29, 2007 12:20 AM — 75.120.225.240 — link — abuse?
I also believe that Oklahome will lose to Missouri. Since their first game Missouri hasn't lost and Oklahoma has.
Missouri has a lot more at stake than Oklahome. Watching the little Oklahoma wagon lap the field is not quite the same motivation as playing in a national championship game.
Big Tide said:
posted on November 29, 2007 6:49 AM — 12.208.88.211 — link — abuse?
Sweet Home have you heard anything about Antoine Caldwell (or whatever his name is???) that big offensive lineman from Anniston? Is that kid thinking about going to Alabama. I know USC is recruiting him as well. Tell Tommy T. to stay out there west of the Mississippi...... By the way, Tommy Condom did have a good ring to it.
GA Boy said:
posted on November 29, 2007 9:14 PM — 97.89.26.241 — link — abuse?
Tommie T
I really hope that GA gets to the rose bowl this year. I swear to God I might take out a second mortgage on the trailer and fly out there for this so called beatdown you speak of. Of course, I could save a buck and pack the yougins in the Winnie and drive out. Maybe while we're out there we could take a swim in one of them cement ponds too! Seriously, my man, I really hope we get to play your Trojans this year. It would be a great way to knock you out of your annual #1 preseason ranking next year.GO DAWGS!!
Spartacus
posted on November 30, 2007 1:19 PM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
GA Boy:
I'd just go ahead and sell that single-wide. Sheeit, boy, just go ahead and move here - everybody else has. Besides, after the game, you'll probably be a Trojan fan for life - and I don't think that's gonna go over to well down at the corner store.
Seriously, I think it'll be a great game. Really, I'm being pretty selfish in wanting an SEC team in the Rose Bowl. We can't make any inroads into southern recruiting by beating Michigan or Ohio State. It would be much better to take on an SEC team right now. Let's all cheer for Oklahoma to knock out Missouri so this game can happen.
BTW, we're losing too many guys this year, including the QB, so I think that Ohio State, Oklahoma, Florida or Georgia would have a better chance of being ranked #1 going into next year (although I fully expect to end up #1). Good luck no matter where your team ends up. The BCS has never seen fit to schedule a PAC 10 team vs an SEC team in all these years. For some reason - that seems to be off limits in Bowl season. So, it is unlikely (even though it's the best matchup), for the BCS to grant us this game. I think that they love the debate and never want it to end or change.Tommie Trojan
Spartacus
posted on November 30, 2007 3:35 PM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
I'll take Oklahoma over Missouri, USC over UCLA, Va Tech over Boston College, LSU over Tennessee, Central Florida over Tulsa, Central Mich over Miami O, Arizona over ASU, Washington over Hawaii and Oregon State over Oregon.
Tommie Trojan
OU-Ron
posted on November 30, 2007 3:56 PM — 216.201.209.146 — link — abuse? said:
Tommie, I'm gonna go into this weeks game with a positive attitude, first off it's hard to beat the same team twice in one year, especially a team as good as mizzou. #2 Since I'm a Sooner fan, I will always pick OU over any team that they play. #3 If we win, we go to the Fiesta Bowl as back to back Big XII Champs. #4 And if we were to lose, it won't be all that bad either because we have already beat them once this year and the Big XII will be in the NCG.
GO SOONERS
Big Tide said:
posted on November 27, 2007 8:50 PM — 12.208.88.211 — link — abuse?What are the chances that Hawaii and Boise State might someday join the PAC 10? Just a question from a southern boy who knows very little about the politics, either real or imagined in the PAC 10. They could then have an East/West or North/South a play a championship game. Thoughts anyone????