September 18, 2008

A Tale Of Two Tigers

Ahh...I love the smell of corndogs in the morning...They smell like...victory!

Yes, that's right, folks. LSU & the "other" Tigers face off on Saturday in a game filled with more implications than a Presidential advertisement. More drama than soap opera. More tense than your junior prom date after you asked her, "So...what time did you have to be in again?" More pageantry than ...okay...You get the idea.

Has the ink dried on Auburn Offensive Coordinator-and alleged Spread Offense Guru-Tony Franklin's contract yet? Will Brad Lester ductape his neck up and make a go of it on Sunday? How will the loss of standout linebacker Derry Beckwith with a tweaked knee affect LSU's stellar defense? Who will win the battle between LSU's running game and Auburn's stout early-season rush defense? We'll get to all that and much more in just a moment...But, first...some background...

Since the 2000 season, the winner of this game has gone on to represent the West in Atlanta no less than a half dozen times (Auburn in 2000, 2002, & 2004; LSU in 2001, 2003, 2005, & 2007), and won the outright conference championship on four occasions (AU in 2004, and LSU in '01, '03, & '07).

It could also be argued that this game typically catapults its winner to 800 Pound Gorilla with a Chainsaw for a penis, National Title Contender status. The loser? Well, they usually find themselves drooling the Drool Regret, into the Pillow of Sorrow, with visions of the Cap One, Cotton or Peach Bowl, dancing in their heads.

Before we take a look at the storylines and breakdown the matchup (an excellent writeup of which can be found at The Bayou Bengal Blog, which is one of my favorites) it bears mentioning that the road team in this series has not emerged victorious since Tommy Tuberville's win in Baton Rouge back in 1999 (Tiger fans still remember the staff and players breaking out cigars on their home turf). The teams have taken turns coming achingly close to road wins since then, with LSU getting the juicy end of the you know what sandwich with questionable officiating calls in 2006, and prior to that in 2004, and Auburn missing 5 field goals in a 20-17 thriller in Baton Rouge in 2005, and last year's last second thriller.

But, enough with the hyperbole. Enough superfluous wordiness. Enough YouTube linking. Let's talk about the here and the now!

The Matchups

Both teams have lots of question marks, and by the end of the night, we should have many answers. In between now and then, you've got FanBlogs, ESPN, and Trev Alberts inside your cellphone, if you're a Sprint Customer.

LSU's Offense Vs. Auburn's Defense

The meat-and-potatoes of the matchup. Auburn hasn't let anyone run on them, and none of the team's they've faced could pose a threat with the pass game. They head into Saturday's matchup having given up a total of 15 points in 3 games, including last week's quirky 3-2 final in Starkville. Going in, Auburn is allowing a paltry 53 yards per game rushing and 1.8 yards per carry.

LSU counters with the league's early season rushing leader in Charles "Chuck" Scott, a 230 pound bowling ball/battering ram that sports a gaudy 11.4 yard per carry average to go along with his 131 yards per contest thusfar, the latter number aforementioned as the best in the league so far in 2008.

Auburn's junior linebacker Trey Blackmon (Whose an all-conference caliber player if he can stay away from the injury bug) and defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks-all 6-2, 296 pounds of him, will have a battle on their hands in going against an LSU Offensive Line (not to mention collegiate football's best fullback in 260 pound, built a brick you-know-what-house "The Mighty" Quinn Johnson) that returns 4 of 5 starters from a unit that paved the way for over 3,000 yards on the ground during the 2007 season, 169 of which came on 33 carries against the Plainsmen in Baton Rouge.

Quite simply put, the winner of this battle will emerge victorious from the game Saturday. I know we have a few more matchups to look at, and we'll also break this one down on an individual level, but if LSU can't run the ball effectively, leaning on a stable of as yet still wet-behind-the-ears quarterbacks on the road in a hostile environment is not recommended. Conversely, if Auburn can stack the box and effectively neutralize Scott & the LSU Offensive Line, then they can put their offense in position to win this game late.

The Spread Eagle vs. The Truth

By now, there's no jokes left to be made about Auburn's...well...offensive offensive performance so far. Saturday's 3-2 clunker in Starkville featured 316 total yards out of Franklin's Spread Offense, with two missed field goals, half a dozen holding calls, even more miscues, and three fumbles, and a quarterback situation in flux. The inside word is that while Kodi Burns was alleged to be the starter coming out of the Bowl Game, Spring Practice, and Fall camp, Junior College backup Chris Todd got every single snap against Mississippi State, and is Franklin’s hand-picked player to run his offense. Look for that arrangement to change on Saturday.

Auburn will need Burns' scrambling ability to make up for a banged up running back corp (Brad Lester's status is in doubt after landing on his neck in an awkward fall against MSU, and is questionable for Saturday), and a dearth of playmakers at wide receiver, where Rodreguis Smith leads the way with an altogether unimpressive 8 catches through 3 games. In a spread offense like Franklin's, that type of production is going to produce a lot of low-scoring affairs.

Auburn's offense will be going up against a defense that's going to win every beauty pageant it enters. Beastly Rickey Jean Francois & senior returning all-SEC Defensive End Tyson Jackson return to anchor what is America's most talented, deep, and fearsome defensive line. Most position coaches would lament the loss of a player the caliber of Glenn Dorsey, but DL Coach Earl Lane has been salivating to get Jackson, Jean-Francois, and company onto the field with their ears pinned back. Neither of LSU's first two opponents provided opportunity for a pass rush, but, Saturday, Auburn will feature it, and be forced to make plays in the vertical passing game.

Although losing All-Conference LB Derry Beckwith hurts LSU, it doesn't change much schematically for Co-Coordinators Bradley Dale Peveto & Doug Mallory. Beckwith's replacement, junior Jacob Cutrera, saw plenty of action in 2007 and has played liberally through the 1st two contests, and against Auburn, Peveto-whose also Cutrera's position coach at LB-will be expected to make the checks, get the defense set, and choose the right gaps. Kelvin Shepherd & Perry Riley will also see some action, but LSU will most probably come out in a base nickel alignment to combat Franklin's Spread Offense.

Most folks are betting the farm on LSU winning this battle, and based on where the line for this game started out (Auburn -2.5) and where it currently sits (LSU -3.5), most folks are simply looking at last week's anemic offensive output and guessing LSU's defense is just a few rungs on the ladder above the Bulldogs, even if it is an Auburn home game.
With Auburn converting 3rd downs at a 28% clip, Franklin and the Auburn offense will have to pull out all the stops to make a game of it.

Boiling it all down, if LSU can stop the Spread Eagle, it's going to be a long night for Tuberville and Co.

Left Guard Herman Johnson vs. Defensive Tackle Sen'Derrick Marks

This individual matchup is a microcosm of the first one dealt with here. LSU's 6-8, 375, future 1st round NFL Draft Pick and off-season Road Paver Herman "Big Herm" Johnson going up against Auburn's 6-2, 296 pound Sen'Derrick Marks-whose draft stock shot into the stratosphere after playing very well in Tiger Stadium against LSU last year in a loss-is an individual matchup made in NFL General Manager's Heaven.

Both of these guys are going to get paid-and paid very well-to play on Sundays. The scouts want to see who shows up when the bright lights are on. As for their team's prospective prospects, as it were, whomever wins this battle will not only probably supplement their signing bonus come next April, but propel their teams to victory. Johnson-along with RS Junior and 3 year starter Ciron Black and returning starting Senior Center Brett Helms-is the engine that will make this LSU offense go. Though Johnson has 80+ pounds on Marks, he turned in a good performance last year and produced consistent pressure in the pocket against LSU. If he can help the interior of Auburn's line stop the high-powered rushing attack LSU will roll into Jordan Hare with, he can give his team a chance at Victory.

The Pick

You all know how I roll...I predict bloodletting's, and then break down on an almost elemental level when they didn't occur. Or, I talk a tremendous amount of sh!t if I'm right...

This week is no exception. In what most are expecting to be a close ballgame, LSU would be my lock of the week if I were a gambling man. An Auburn defense that converts one out of three on 3rd downs against ULM, Southern Miss, & Mississippi State is going to be hard pressed to up that average against a defense the likes of LSU. I have respect for Auburn's 219 yards per game average, and their individual talent is outstanding, but if your offense can't keep you off the field, things are going to get tough.

With LSU's offense pounding away from the left side, and a blocking back/running back combination the likes of Quinn Johnson & Chuck Scott (not to mention the backups in Keiland Williams and Richard "Crazylegs" Murphy...and don't forget about Trindon Holliday, who might surprise some folks this weekend), the pick here is that while Auburn hangs with LSU early, a suffocating performance by the LSU stop troops means that Auburn's Immovable Object finally yields to the Irresistible Force that is LSU's rushing attack. A late score in the 2nd quarter before halftime, and a quick 3rd quarter score puts Auburn down, and a conservative yet impressive LSU rushing attack counts the "other" SEC West Tigers out.

Final score?

LSU 31

Auburn 10

Lock and Load Gentleman...One team lives to fight another day...and another's dreams of SEC Supremacy are soon to fall apart like a singlewide trailer in a tornado...

Comments:

A Tale Of Two Tigers
Ahh...I love the smell of corndogs in the morning...They smell like...victory! Yes, that's right, folks. LSU & the "other" Tigers face off on Saturday in a game filled with more implications than a Presidential advertisement. More drama than soap opera. More tense than your junior prom date after you asked her, "So...what time did you have to be in again?" More pageantry than ...okay...You get the idea. Has the ink dried on Auburn Offensive Coordinator-and alleged Spread Offense Guru-Tony Franklin's contract yet? Will Brad Lester ductape his neck up and make a go of it on Sunday? How will the loss of standout linebacker Derry Beckwith with a tweaked knee affect LSU's stellar defense? Who will win the battle between LSU's running game and Auburn's stout early-season rush defense? We'll get to all that and much more in just a moment...But, first...some background... Since the 2000 season, the winner of this game has gone on to represent the West in Atlanta no less than a half dozen times (Auburn in 2000, 2002, & 2004; LSU in 2001, 2003, 2005, & 2007), and won the outright conference championship on four occasions (AU in 2004, and LSU in '01, '03, & '07). It could also be argued that this game typically catapults its winner to 800 Pound Gorilla with a Chainsaw for a penis, National Title Contender status. The loser? Well, they usually find themselves drooling the Drool Regret, into the Pillow of Sorrow, with visions of the Cap One, Cotton or Peach Bowl, dancing in their heads. Before we take a look at the storylines and breakdown the matchup (an excellent writeup of which can be found at The Bayou Bengal Blog, which is one of my favorites) it bears mentioning that the road team in this series has not emerged victorious since Tommy Tuberville's win in Baton Rouge back in 1999 (Tiger fans still remember the staff and players breaking out cigars on their home turf). The teams have taken turns coming achingly close to road wins since then, with LSU getting the juicy end of the you know what sandwich with questionable officiating calls in 2006, and prior to that in 2004, and Auburn missing 5 field goals in a 20-17 thriller in Baton Rouge in 2005, and last year's last second thriller. But, enough with the hyperbole. Enough superfluous wordiness. Enough YouTube linking. Let's talk about the here and the now! The Matchups Both teams have lots of question marks, and by the end of the night, we should have many answers. In between now and then, you've got FanBlogs, ESPN, and Trev Alberts inside your cellphone, if you're a Sprint Customer. LSU's Offense Vs. Auburn's Defense The meat-and-potatoes of the matchup. Auburn hasn't let anyone run on them, and none of the team's they've faced could pose a threat with the pass game. They head into Saturday's matchup having given up a total of 15 points in 3 games, including last week's quirky 3-2 final in Starkville. Going in, Auburn is allowing a paltry 53 yards per game rushing and 1.8 yards per carry. LSU counters with the league's early season rushing leader in Charles "Chuck" Scott, a 230 pound bowling ball/battering ram that sports a gaudy 11.4 yard per carry average to go along with his 131 yards per contest thusfar, the latter number aforementioned as the best in the league so far in 2008. Auburn's junior linebacker Trey Blackmon (Whose an all-conference caliber player if he can stay away from the injury bug) and defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks-all 6-2, 296 pounds of him, will have a battle on their hands in going against an LSU Offensive Line (not to mention collegiate football's best fullback in 260 pound, built a brick you-know-what-house "The Mighty" Quinn Johnson) that returns 4 of 5 starters from a unit that paved the way for over 3,000 yards on the ground during the 2007 season, 169 of which came on 33 carries against the Plainsmen in Baton Rouge. Quite simply put, the winner of this battle will emerge victorious from the game Saturday. I know we have a few more matchups to look at, and we'll also break this one down on an individual level, but if LSU can't run the ball effectively, leaning on a stable of as yet still wet-behind-the-ears quarterbacks on the road in a hostile environment is not recommended. Conversely, if Auburn can stack the box and effectively neutralize Scott & the LSU Offensive Line, then they can put their offense in position to win this game late. The Spread Eagle vs. The Truth By now, there's no jokes left to be made about Auburn's...well...offensive offensive performance so far. Saturday's 3-2 clunker in Starkville featured 316 total yards out of Franklin's Spread Offense, with two missed field goals, half a dozen holding calls, even more miscues, and three fumbles, and a quarterback situation in flux. The inside word is that while Kodi Burns was alleged to be the starter coming out of the Bowl Game, Spring Practice, and Fall camp, Junior College backup Chris Todd got every single snap against Mississippi State, and is Franklin’s hand-picked player to run his offense. Look for that arrangement to change on Saturday. Auburn will need Burns' scrambling ability to make up for a banged up running back corp (Brad Lester's status is in doubt after landing on his neck in an awkward fall against MSU, and is questionable for Saturday), and a dearth of playmakers at wide receiver, where Rodreguis Smith leads the way with an altogether unimpressive 8 catches through 3 games. In a spread offense like Franklin's, that type of production is going to produce a lot of low-scoring affairs. Auburn's offense will be going up against a defense that's going to win every beauty pageant it enters. Beastly Rickey Jean Francois & senior returning all-SEC Defensive End Tyson Jackson return to anchor what is America's most talented, deep, and fearsome defensive line. Most position coaches would lament the loss of a player the caliber of Glenn Dorsey, but DL Coach Earl Lane has been salivating to get Jackson, Jean-Francois, and company onto the field with their ears pinned back. Neither of LSU's first two opponents provided opportunity for a pass rush, but, Saturday, Auburn will feature it, and be forced to make plays in the vertical passing game. Although losing All-Conference LB Derry Beckwith hurts LSU, it doesn't change much schematically for Co-Coordinators Bradley Dale Peveto & Doug Mallory. Beckwith's replacement, junior Jacob Cutrera, saw plenty of action in 2007 and has played liberally through the 1st two contests, and against Auburn, Peveto-whose also Cutrera's position coach at LB-will be expected to make the checks, get the defense set, and choose the right gaps. Kelvin Shepherd & Perry Riley will also see some action, but LSU will most probably come out in a base nickel alignment to combat Franklin's Spread Offense. Most folks are betting the farm on LSU winning this battle, and based on where the line for this game started out (Auburn -2.5) and where it currently sits (LSU -3.5), most folks are simply looking at last week's anemic offensive output and guessing LSU's defense is just a few rungs on the ladder above the Bulldogs, even if it is an Auburn home game. With Auburn converting 3rd downs at a 28% clip, Franklin and the Auburn offense will have to pull out all the stops to make a game of it. Boiling it all down, if LSU can stop the Spread Eagle, it's going to be a long night for Tuberville and Co. Left Guard Herman Johnson vs. Defensive Tackle Sen'Derrick Marks This individual matchup is a microcosm of the first one dealt with here. LSU's 6-8, 375, future 1st round NFL Draft Pick and off-season Road Paver Herman "Big Herm" Johnson going up against Auburn's 6-2, 296 pound Sen'Derrick Marks-whose draft stock shot into the stratosphere after playing very well in Tiger Stadium against LSU last year in a loss-is an individual matchup made in NFL General Manager's Heaven. Both of these guys are going to get paid-and paid very well-to play on Sundays. The scouts want to see who shows up when the bright lights are on. As for their team's prospective prospects, as it were, whomever wins this battle will not only probably supplement their signing bonus come next April, but propel their teams to victory. Johnson-along with RS Junior and 3 year starter Ciron Black and returning starting Senior Center Brett Helms-is the engine that will make this LSU offense go. Though Johnson has 80+ pounds on Marks, he turned in a good performance last year and produced consistent pressure in the pocket against LSU. If he can help the interior of Auburn's line stop the high-powered rushing attack LSU will roll into Jordan Hare with, he can give his team a chance at Victory. The Pick You all know how I roll...I predict bloodletting's, and then break down on an almost elemental level when they didn't occur. Or, I talk a tremendous amount of sh!t if I'm right... This week is no exception. In what most are expecting to be a close ballgame, LSU would be my lock of the week if I were a gambling man. An Auburn defense that converts one out of three on 3rd downs against ULM, Southern Miss, & Mississippi State is going to be hard pressed to up that average against a defense the likes of LSU. I have respect for Auburn's 219 yards per game average, and their individual talent is outstanding, but if your offense can't keep you off the field, things are going to get tough. With LSU's offense pounding away from the left side, and a blocking back/running back combination the likes of Quinn Johnson & Chuck Scott (not to mention the backups in Keiland Williams and Richard "Crazylegs" Murphy...and don't forget about Trindon Holliday, who might surprise some folks this weekend), the pick here is that while Auburn hangs with LSU early, a suffocating performance by the LSU stop troops means that Auburn's Immovable Object finally yields to the Irresistible Force that is LSU's rushing attack. A late score in the 2nd quarter before halftime, and a quick 3rd quarter score puts Auburn down, and a conservative yet impressive LSU rushing attack counts the "other" SEC West Tigers out. Final score? LSU 31 Auburn 10 Lock and Load Gentleman...One team lives to fight another day...and another's dreams of SEC Supremacy are soon to fall apart like a singlewide trailer in a tornado...