July 23, 2008

BYU picked to win MWC

During the MWC press kickoff for the 2008 season BYU received 29 of 34 first place votes making them the heavy favorite to win the MWC. Utah received the remaining 5 votes and placed second, with TCU a close third.

New Mexico, Wyoming and Air Force formed the next pack of teams, followed by SDSU, CSU and UNLV.

My list would have been slightly different: BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, CSU, SDSU, UNLV. The top 3 have a good chance at the title and the top 6 should expect a bowl game. The bottom three always have next year.

As mid major conferences, it is important to the teams at the top that the conference does well against non conference opponents. Here is a break down of non-conference opponents by likelyhood of win:

MWC as Cupcakes:
These games should have a line over 21 points. If the MWC wins one of these it will shake the BCS world. If they lose it might even help them in some computers just having the game on the schedule.

UNLV vs Arizona State, CSU vs California

MWC Underdog:
These games should have a line between 7-21. If the MWC wins some of these games it will be making a statement. If they lose they might lose a little ground in the computers, but not much. I would expect them to go 2-5 in these games.

Wyoming vs Tennessee, TCU vs Oklahoma, New Mexico vs Texas A&M, New Mexico vs Arizona, SDSU vs Notre Dame, CSU vs Colorado, UNLV vs Nevada, UNLV vs iowa State

To Close to Call:
These are games that the MWC team should feel comfortable playing, even though the odds might not be even. They need to win more than 5 of these 10 games to have a good year.

BYU vs UCLA, Utah vs Michigan, Utah vs Oregon State, Air Force vs Houston, Air Force vs Navy, New Mexico vs Tulsa, Wyoming vs Bowling Green, CSU vs Houston, UNLV vs Utah State

Expected wins:
These are games where the MWC team should win, but the other team might present some problems. The MWC needs to go 7-3 or better in these games.

BYU vs Washington, Utah vs Utah State, BYU vs Utah State, TCU vs Stanford, TCU vs SMU, Air Force vs Army, New Mexico vs New Mexico State, Wyoming vs Ohio, SDSU vs San Jose State, SDSU vs Idaho

Cupcakes:
These games could seriously hurt the MWC team if they lose any of these seven games.

Utah vs Weber State, BYU vs N. Iowa, TCU vs S.F Austin, Air Force vs Southern Utah, Wyoming vs ND State, SDSU vs Cal Poly, CSU vs Sacramento State

If BYU is going to have a change at the title game the MWC is going to have to do a bit better than what I described above. They would need to win at least half the games marked as underdogs and at least 7 of the games marked too close to call, plus the conditions listed in the linked post.

Expect a similar breakdown of the WAC, C-USA and MAC non conference schedules soon...

Posted by Ben Prather

Comments:

BYU picked to win MWC
During the MWC press kickoff for the 2008 season BYU received 29 of 34 first place votes making them the heavy favorite to win the MWC. Utah received the remaining 5 votes and placed second, with TCU a close third. New Mexico, Wyoming and Air Force formed the next pack of teams, followed by SDSU, CSU and UNLV. My list would have been slightly different: BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, CSU, SDSU, UNLV. The top 3 have a good chance at the title and the top 6 should expect a bowl game. The bottom three always have next year. As mid major conferences, it is important to the teams at the top that the conference does well against non conference opponents. Here is a break down of non-conference opponents by likelyhood of win: MWC as Cupcakes: These games should have a line over 21 points. If the MWC wins one of these it will shake the BCS world. If they lose it might even help them in some computers just having the game on the schedule. UNLV vs Arizona State, CSU vs California MWC Underdog: These games should have a line between 7-21. If the MWC wins some of these games it will be making a statement. If they lose they might lose a little ground in the computers, but not much. I would expect them to go 2-5 in these games. Wyoming vs Tennessee, TCU vs Oklahoma, New Mexico vs Texas A&M, New Mexico vs Arizona, SDSU vs Notre Dame, CSU vs Colorado, UNLV vs Nevada, UNLV vs iowa State To Close to Call: These are games that the MWC team should feel comfortable playing, even though the odds might not be even. They need to win more than 5 of these 10 games to have a good year. BYU vs UCLA, Utah vs Michigan, Utah vs Oregon State, Air Force vs Houston, Air Force vs Navy, New Mexico vs Tulsa, Wyoming vs Bowling Green, CSU vs Houston, UNLV vs Utah State Expected wins: These are games where the MWC team should win, but the other team might present some problems. The MWC needs to go 7-3 or better in these games. BYU vs Washington, Utah vs Utah State, BYU vs Utah State, TCU vs Stanford, TCU vs SMU, Air Force vs Army, New Mexico vs New Mexico State, Wyoming vs Ohio, SDSU vs San Jose State, SDSU vs Idaho Cupcakes: These games could seriously hurt the MWC team if they lose any of these seven games. Utah vs Weber State, BYU vs N. Iowa, TCU vs S.F Austin, Air Force vs Southern Utah, Wyoming vs ND State, SDSU vs Cal Poly, CSU vs Sacramento State If BYU is going to have a change at the title game the MWC is going to have to do a bit better than what I described above. They would need to win at least half the games marked as underdogs and at least 7 of the games marked too close to call, plus the conditions listed in the linked post. Expect a similar breakdown of the WAC, C-USA and MAC non conference schedules soon...