May 22, 2009

Can the MWC do it again?

Rivals just asked Whittingham "How are you going to feed the beast?"

The topic is what is it going to take to keep Utah at its elite level of play. I think this question should be expanded to the entire MWC conference.

7-2 vs PAC 10 members, 10-5 vs all BCS teams, 28-13 overall.
3 teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings.
31-17 Sugar Bowl win over a team that was #1 for over half the season.

In 2008 the MWC played like a conference deserving of a BCS automatic qualification. Is this a one time blip or is the MWC a major conference being born?

The BCS is set to review the results from 2008-2011 to determine the automatic qualifications for 2012 and 1013. Boise State would help the MWC across the board in the measures used by the BCS. They would need to play in the MWC in 2011 to count for the MWC and must give a year notice to leave the WAC. The MWC would need to invite them this year or next year.

If the MWC continues to perform at the level they achieved in 2008 they may earn an automatic qualification as soon as 2012. The question is can they.

Will the 2009 Sugar Bowl be for the MWC what the 1926 Rose Bowl was for the SEC?

BCS busting
An undefeated MWC team has demonstrated the ability to outrank an undefeated team from any other at-large conference in the BCS standings. If Boise State (and a handful of others less likely to do so) is not undefeated a one loss MWC team could earn an automatic spot.

TCU got into the top 14 needed for consideration last year with 2 losses. BYU, New Mexico and Wyoming are the only MWC team with a schedule difficult enough to accomplish that in 2009.

The following projections are slightly, but not over the top, optimistic for the MWC.

TCU
OOC: @Virginia, Texas State, @Clemson and SMU

The two road OOC games will give TCU an opportunity to showcase their talent to a national audience. TCU was stunted by a lack of offense in 2008 and if any offense can be found they will be a serious threat.

TCU has no games they can't win and many games they have no excuse losing. In 2008 they gave Utah all Utah could handle in Salt Lake City. This year they get Utah at home. TCU also ended Utah's last season long winning streak. Their field is known for killing long streaks in the MWC.

An 11-1 (7-1 MWC) TCU is my pick for this year's BCS buster.

Utah
OOC: Utah State, @San Jose State, @Oregon and Louisville

Utah @ Oregon looms big. This game will set the winner up as a potential national contender. San Jose State and Louisville should be manageable tests.

Unlike 2005 Utah has had a relatively stable off season following a BCS bowl win. The respect of being a BCS worthy team will put a target on them, especially for road games at rivals TCU and BYU. I got Utah splitting those but dropping another conference game along the way (see New Mexico 2008). Losing to Oregon and winning all other MWC games is a strong possibility as well.

A 10-2 (6-2 MWC) Utah would be squarely in the top 20 of the final BCS standings.

BYU
OOC: vs. Oklahoma(Cowboy Stadium), @Tulane, FSU and Utah State

If BYU can beat Oklahoma on a neutral field, give the MWC their automatic qualification now. FSU will be a fun game to watch. MWC fans like to jaw at the ACC, now we will get to see how much bite their is to our bark.

A 10-2 (7-1 MWC) BYU would be in the top 15.

Air Force
OOC: Nicholls State, @Minnesota, @Navy, Army

Minnesota and Navy are challenges Air Force should be up to facing.

7-5 (4-4 MWC)

CSU
OOC: @Colorado, Weber State, Nevada, @Idaho

CSU is over due for an upset of Colorado. They are still trying to gain a new focus and this is not that year. Nevada may prove tough.

7-5 (4-4 MWC)

UNLV
OOC: Sacramento State, Oregon State, Hawaii, @Nevada

Hawaii and Nevada are a good match for UNLV. Oregon State not so much.

6-6 (3-5 MWC)

New Mexico (Coaching Change)
OOC: @Texas A&M, Tulsa, New Mexico State, @Texas Tech

Texas A&M looks vulnerable and Tulsa should be an even match.

4-8 (2-6 MWC)

Wyoming (Coaching Change)
OOC: Weber State, Texas, @Colorado, @Florida Atlantic

I have high hopes for Wyoming's new coach. Florida Atlantic might be an interesting test. My gut says Wyoming will pass with flying colors.

4-8 (2-6 MWC)

SDSU (Coaching Change)
OOC: @UCLA, Southern Utah, @Idaho, New Mexico State

PLEASE BEAT SOUTHERN UTAH!! THE MWC DOESN'T NEED TO LOSE AN FCS GAME LIKE WE DID LAST YEAR TO CAL POLY!!

3-9 (1-7 MWC)

OOC
BCS: 14 games. Are 10 of these winnable? I don't think as many are as vulnerable as they were last year and they definitely will not be caught by surprise two years in a row. I would expect a 7-7 result, but a 9-5 result is not unthinkable.

PAC: 3 games. The MWC will likely go 1-2. The Utah @ Oregon game will be huge.

Total: 36 games. Are 25 of these winnable? I think 26 wins are not out of the question.

WAC: 10 games. Last year's 7-2 dominance MUST be continued here.

Conclusion
I expect the MWC to take a slight step back from last year but remain far better than they had been in years prior. The MWC is a conference committed to the capital improvements needed to sustain long term success and will continue to grow stronger as time goes on.

For after 2014 I ask one question. Would the people that organized the BCS rather add the MWC or create a playoff structure? Either way the MWC is not going away anytime soon.

Comments:

Can the MWC do it again?
Rivals just asked Whittingham "How are you going to feed the beast?" The topic is what is it going to take to keep Utah at its elite level of play. I think this question should be expanded to the entire MWC conference. 7-2 vs PAC 10 members, 10-5 vs all BCS teams, 28-13 overall. 3 teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings. 31-17 Sugar Bowl win over a team that was #1 for over half the season. In 2008 the MWC played like a conference deserving of a BCS automatic qualification. Is this a one time blip or is the MWC a major conference being born? The BCS is set to review the results from 2008-2011 to determine the automatic qualifications for 2012 and 1013. Boise State would help the MWC across the board in the measures used by the BCS. They would need to play in the MWC in 2011 to count for the MWC and must give a year notice to leave the WAC. The MWC would need to invite them this year or next year. If the MWC continues to perform at the level they achieved in 2008 they may earn an automatic qualification as soon as 2012. The question is can they. Will the 2009 Sugar Bowl be for the MWC what the 1926 Rose Bowl was for the SEC? BCS busting An undefeated MWC team has demonstrated the ability to outrank an undefeated team from any other at-large conference in the BCS standings. If Boise State (and a handful of others less likely to do so) is not undefeated a one loss MWC team could earn an automatic spot. TCU got into the top 14 needed for consideration last year with 2 losses. BYU, New Mexico and Wyoming are the only MWC team with a schedule difficult enough to accomplish that in 2009. The following projections are slightly, but not over the top, optimistic for the MWC. TCU OOC: @Virginia, Texas State, @Clemson and SMU The two road OOC games will give TCU an opportunity to showcase their talent to a national audience. TCU was stunted by a lack of offense in 2008 and if any offense can be found they will be a serious threat. TCU has no games they can't win and many games they have no excuse losing. In 2008 they gave Utah all Utah could handle in Salt Lake City. This year they get Utah at home. TCU also ended Utah's last season long winning streak. Their field is known for killing long streaks in the MWC. An 11-1 (7-1 MWC) TCU is my pick for this year's BCS buster. Utah OOC: Utah State, @San Jose State, @Oregon and Louisville Utah @ Oregon looms big. This game will set the winner up as a potential national contender. San Jose State and Louisville should be manageable tests. Unlike 2005 Utah has had a relatively stable off season following a BCS bowl win. The respect of being a BCS worthy team will put a target on them, especially for road games at rivals TCU and BYU. I got Utah splitting those but dropping another conference game along the way (see New Mexico 2008). Losing to Oregon and winning all other MWC games is a strong possibility as well. A 10-2 (6-2 MWC) Utah would be squarely in the top 20 of the final BCS standings. BYU OOC: vs. Oklahoma(Cowboy Stadium), @Tulane, FSU and Utah State If BYU can beat Oklahoma on a neutral field, give the MWC their automatic qualification now. FSU will be a fun game to watch. MWC fans like to jaw at the ACC, now we will get to see how much bite their is to our bark. A 10-2 (7-1 MWC) BYU would be in the top 15. Air Force OOC: Nicholls State, @Minnesota, @Navy, Army Minnesota and Navy are challenges Air Force should be up to facing. 7-5 (4-4 MWC) CSU OOC: @Colorado, Weber State, Nevada, @Idaho CSU is over due for an upset of Colorado. They are still trying to gain a new focus and this is not that year. Nevada may prove tough. 7-5 (4-4 MWC) UNLV OOC: Sacramento State, Oregon State, Hawaii, @Nevada Hawaii and Nevada are a good match for UNLV. Oregon State not so much. 6-6 (3-5 MWC) New Mexico (Coaching Change) OOC: @Texas A&M, Tulsa, New Mexico State, @Texas Tech Texas A&M looks vulnerable and Tulsa should be an even match. 4-8 (2-6 MWC) Wyoming (Coaching Change) OOC: Weber State, Texas, @Colorado, @Florida Atlantic I have high hopes for Wyoming's new coach. Florida Atlantic might be an interesting test. My gut says Wyoming will pass with flying colors. 4-8 (2-6 MWC) SDSU (Coaching Change) OOC: @UCLA, Southern Utah, @Idaho, New Mexico State PLEASE BEAT SOUTHERN UTAH!! THE MWC DOESN'T NEED TO LOSE AN FCS GAME LIKE WE DID LAST YEAR TO CAL POLY!! 3-9 (1-7 MWC) OOC BCS: 14 games. Are 10 of these winnable? I don't think as many are as vulnerable as they were last year and they definitely will not be caught by surprise two years in a row. I would expect a 7-7 result, but a 9-5 result is not unthinkable. PAC: 3 games. The MWC will likely go 1-2. The Utah @ Oregon game will be huge. Total: 36 games. Are 25 of these winnable? I think 26 wins are not out of the question. WAC: 10 games. Last year's 7-2 dominance MUST be continued here. Conclusion I expect the MWC to take a slight step back from last year but remain far better than they had been in years prior. The MWC is a conference committed to the capital improvements needed to sustain long term success and will continue to grow stronger as time goes on. For after 2014 I ask one question. Would the people that organized the BCS rather add the MWC or create a playoff structure? Either way the MWC is not going away anytime soon.