September 15, 2009

Round 2: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS

This week the top MWC teams took a step back from the spotlight and gave an opportunity for the middle of the pack to step up and earn a share of the spotlight. They failed. At least the MWC was spared any catastrophic losses. Last week also helped clarify the middle from the bottom of the MWC.

Top:
BYU soundly handled Tulane. TCU took care of a Virginia team that was nothing like the team they had been anticipating playing all summer. Utah managed to look strong in the 4th quarter after San Jose State brought them through the first 3 tied 7-7. All summer long I thought this looked like a possible trap game, and Utah managed to survive. Al in all, nothing exceptional and Utah might reasonably lose a spot or two in credibility.

Middle:
Air Force lost to Minnesota 20-13. This game was a close fought game between two teams likely to finish in the middle of their conferences. This game was expected to be close but if the MWC want to prove they belong at the next level they need to win these kind of games.

UNLV lost to Oregon State 23-21, having taken their first lead of the game late in the 4th, only to have Oregon State kick a game winning field goal. Oregon State was expected to win so a close game helps this first year coach's reputation but this is another close game the MWC needs to win to take the next step.

CSU beat Weber State 24-23. I still include CSU in the middle due to their win over Colorado, which is now suspect thanks to Toledo.

Bottom:
Wyoming lost big to Texas 41-10. I was surprise both by the fact they were able to score 10 and that they were able to limit Texas to 41. This was no surprise to anyone, though I don't think Texas covered the 33 points.

SDSU beat Southern Utah 35-19. This is an improvement from last year when they lost to Cal Poly. This would have been a catastrophic loss.

New Mexico lost to Tulsa 44-10. This game featured a top C-USA team vs. a middle to bottom MWC team. These are the kinds of games the MWC has been on the other side of to build their impressive stats vs. BCS conference members. It is not so fun on the other side of the table.

Summary:
The MWC went 1-3 vs. BCS teams this week and their middle was exposed to legitimate questions about their soundness. A loss to C-USA did not help and allowign FCS teams to keep the game close is not going to cut it. Not a good week for the MWC, though I still give them the lead on the season.

Many of the critical OOC games are over the next 2 weeks and the MWC is no exception. In two weeks the polls will shake out and we will have a far better idea how strong each conference really is.

Expected wins:
BYU hosts FSU in a game that looked evenly matched this summer, but now looks one sided in the MWC's favor. BYU needs a convincing win to maintain their current favor in the polls.

TCU plays Texas State-San Marcos. Uhm, yeah...

Utah travels to Oregon with the Ducks in do or die mode. Utah has played sloppy in their first games and needs to come out firing this week.

Wyoming at Colorado is an interesting game. Both CSU and Wyoming allowed Weber State to hang close. CSU (and Toledo) make Colorado look silly. If Wyoming does the same I think it is safe to say that Colorado is not as good as Weber State.

Close calls:
CSU hosts a Nevada team I was hot on to start the season until they got decimated by Notre Dame. I expect this game to be close and a win would help raise the credibility of the middle of the MWC.

SDSU travels to Idaho in a game between the bottom of the MWC vs. the bottom of the WAC. SDSU has a history of losing these games and if they want to show they are ready to move up from the bottom of the conference they need to win this game.

Hawaii travels to UNLV in a game I am anxious to see the results of. Hawaii struggled to beat Western Carolina and UNLV hung with Oregon State. A win this week puts UNLV squarely in the middle pack of the MWC.

New Mexico hosts Air Force in the first MWC game of the season. I am looking for Air Force to demonstrate that New Mexico belongs in the bottom of the conference, otherwise the middle is weaker than I had hoped.

Comments:

Round 2: MWC - Put up or Shut up: BCS
This week the top MWC teams took a step back from the spotlight and gave an opportunity for the middle of the pack to step up and earn a share of the spotlight. They failed. At least the MWC was spared any catastrophic losses. Last week also helped clarify the middle from the bottom of the MWC. Top: BYU soundly handled Tulane. TCU took care of a Virginia team that was nothing like the team they had been anticipating playing all summer. Utah managed to look strong in the 4th quarter after San Jose State brought them through the first 3 tied 7-7. All summer long I thought this looked like a possible trap game, and Utah managed to survive. Al in all, nothing exceptional and Utah might reasonably lose a spot or two in credibility. Middle: Air Force lost to Minnesota 20-13. This game was a close fought game between two teams likely to finish in the middle of their conferences. This game was expected to be close but if the MWC want to prove they belong at the next level they need to win these kind of games. UNLV lost to Oregon State 23-21, having taken their first lead of the game late in the 4th, only to have Oregon State kick a game winning field goal. Oregon State was expected to win so a close game helps this first year coach's reputation but this is another close game the MWC needs to win to take the next step. CSU beat Weber State 24-23. I still include CSU in the middle due to their win over Colorado, which is now suspect thanks to Toledo. Bottom: Wyoming lost big to Texas 41-10. I was surprise both by the fact they were able to score 10 and that they were able to limit Texas to 41. This was no surprise to anyone, though I don't think Texas covered the 33 points. SDSU beat Southern Utah 35-19. This is an improvement from last year when they lost to Cal Poly. This would have been a catastrophic loss. New Mexico lost to Tulsa 44-10. This game featured a top C-USA team vs. a middle to bottom MWC team. These are the kinds of games the MWC has been on the other side of to build their impressive stats vs. BCS conference members. It is not so fun on the other side of the table. Summary: The MWC went 1-3 vs. BCS teams this week and their middle was exposed to legitimate questions about their soundness. A loss to C-USA did not help and allowign FCS teams to keep the game close is not going to cut it. Not a good week for the MWC, though I still give them the lead on the season. Many of the critical OOC games are over the next 2 weeks and the MWC is no exception. In two weeks the polls will shake out and we will have a far better idea how strong each conference really is. Expected wins: BYU hosts FSU in a game that looked evenly matched this summer, but now looks one sided in the MWC's favor. BYU needs a convincing win to maintain their current favor in the polls. TCU plays Texas State-San Marcos. Uhm, yeah... Utah travels to Oregon with the Ducks in do or die mode. Utah has played sloppy in their first games and needs to come out firing this week. Wyoming at Colorado is an interesting game. Both CSU and Wyoming allowed Weber State to hang close. CSU (and Toledo) make Colorado look silly. If Wyoming does the same I think it is safe to say that Colorado is not as good as Weber State. Close calls: CSU hosts a Nevada team I was hot on to start the season until they got decimated by Notre Dame. I expect this game to be close and a win would help raise the credibility of the middle of the MWC. SDSU travels to Idaho in a game between the bottom of the MWC vs. the bottom of the WAC. SDSU has a history of losing these games and if they want to show they are ready to move up from the bottom of the conference they need to win this game. Hawaii travels to UNLV in a game I am anxious to see the results of. Hawaii struggled to beat Western Carolina and UNLV hung with Oregon State. A win this week puts UNLV squarely in the middle pack of the MWC. New Mexico hosts Air Force in the first MWC game of the season. I am looking for Air Force to demonstrate that New Mexico belongs in the bottom of the conference, otherwise the middle is weaker than I had hoped.