November 19, 2007
Bowl Predictions: Magic 8-Ball Edition
With a record eleven ranked teams losing to unranked opponents this year, many sites are having to trade in their crystal balls for the ever-so-popular Magic 8 Ball.
As of this morning, only one team -- Navy -- has accepted a bowl invite, but several invitations should be going out this week and many more immediately following this weekend's games.
Let's take a look at the "It is decidedly so" predictions....
CBS Sportsline - who was married to an LSU - USC matchup for the national championship last month - has revised their prediction to reflect LSU - West Virginia in the BCS Championship.
College Football News, who also had LSU-USC in the title game last month, projects LSU-West Virginia in the championship game.
In order for that scenario to work, all that is required is a Kansas loss combined with LSU & WVU winning out -- certainly not out of the question. Attention Fighting Manginos - you've been served!
Looking at the rest of the BCS bowl games projections....
Bowl | Sportsline | CFN |
BCS | LSU - WVU | LSU - WVU |
Orange | Virginia Tech - Kansas | Virginia Tech - Missouri |
Fiesta | Oklahoma - Southern Cal | Oklahoma - Oregon |
Sugar | Georgia - Hawaii | Georgia - Boise St |
Rose | Ohio State - Oregon | Ohio State - Arizona State |
For more bowl predictions, see Sportsline, CFN, the major newspapers via Google News.
Comments:
wvu-togo said:
posted on November 19, 2007 10:13 AM — 206.239.132.130 — link — abuse?
While I'm excited about the prediction of WVU's playing for the NC, I would be interested in comments from others about their chances of winning under different scenarios like WVU vs;
LSU
OSU
OK
VT
GA
UKGo Mountaineers!
OU-Ron
posted on November 19, 2007 10:45 AM — 216.201.209.146 — link — abuse?
said:
Not sure OU should be in that projection, we may not win another game this year, Our starting QB is out with a concusion (not sure if he can return) # 1 RB out for the remainder of the season and our # 1 & 2 DT are out ( not sure when they can return, other than that, everything looks rosey......
40 Acres of Burnt Orange
posted on November 19, 2007 12:41 PM — 76.182.205.22 — link — abuse? said:
@ #4 with the depth OU has there is always someone to step up and play big just like when the Horns started watching players drop like flies with injury.
We won ugly but we still won. I think Bradford will be back for the Pokes. I just don't see Kansas in a BCS bowl game or Hawaii. Hawaii has, like Texas, gotten really lucky wins against inferior teams and they are gonna get stomped by Boise State.
I don't see Kansas or Missouri whichever one makes it to San Antonio getting past OU.
OU-Ron
posted on November 19, 2007 1:19 PM — 216.201.209.146 — link — abuse? said:
@9 I think Kansas is for real, if they beat Mizzou, I think they can beat OU or Texas. The way OU has been playing lately, not sure they can get past Okla State, and that's damn hard for me to say, but it's true...
As far as the depth of players, no problem at RB, but it's a big problem at QB, Stoops should have been playing the back up in games where they were way ahead for the whole 4th Qtr instead of just a few minutes. DT position will be a problem too......
posted on November 19, 2007 2:01 PM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse?Ben Prather
said:
The prediction by CFN of Boise State in the Sugar is interesting.
Despite my previous posting to the contrary, Boise needs significant help to get into a BCS Bowl.
Baring a total collapse of the PAC 10 no conference champion is going to be below Boise State. If UConn defeats WV they would be ahead of Boise State. The lowest possible ACC champion is BC after a Miami loss. A win over Virginia in the championship game would put them very near Boise State, while a win over VT would give them the edge.
While Boise State would like to see USC defeat ASU, have UCLA defeat Oregon and then watch UCLA, Arizona and Oregon State knock out thier rivals, they should really put thier eggs in another basket.
They need to get into the top 12, and they can do it. They need to move up 7 spaces to accomplish this. Its a very long shot indeed.
Boise State will likely pass Illinois with a win over Hawaii. Hawaii is a free spot for Boise State. This is two spots for Boise State, 5 more to go.
Boise needs WV to knock off Uconn. Alternatively, Boise State needs WV to lose to UConn and Pitt. This is to prevent a loss of a spot, no gain.
If the loser of the ASU USC game loses the following week that team will be below Boise State. Oregon may lose two, due to the absense of Dixon, which would put them below Boise.
Boise can reasonably pass two PAC 10 teams, one is likely.Boise State needs VT to win the ACC. This would put Boise State over 2 ACC teams. Boise State can expect to pass 1 ACC team.
In the SEC Boise State would like to see Kentucky beat Tennessee, GT defeat Georgia and LSU win the championship for two spots. LSU winning the championship or a Kectucky win guarantee Boise State one spot from the SEC.
The Kansas/Missouri game determines who Boise State will be cheering for in the Big 12 championship. They want Texas A&M and/or Oklahoma State to win this week. An A&M win gives Boise State a spot. An Oklahoma State win with a Texas loss to A&M or in the championship game would give Boise State 2 spots.
Because Boise State has more varied ratings than the teams around them, they benifit more from teams below them losing. The following games could help Boise State on a very small scale(
South Carolina over Clemson, Pittsburgh over USF, Syracuse over Cincinnati, Utah over BYU, Alabama over Auburn.
Finally:
A BCS conference champion is not likely to be below Boise State.Boise State needs to move up 7 spots.
They will likely earn 2 of those spots from a win over Hawaii with no other help.
3 more spots can be reasonably expected from the SEC(Tennessee), PAC 10(USC/Oregon) and ACC(Virginia/BC).
With help from two more teams ahead of them, several options are available, Boise State has an outside chance at a BCS berth.
This year anything is possible.
posted on November 19, 2007 2:47 PM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse? said:
Ok, now for Hawaii.
IF Hawaii defeats Boise State and Washington (I don't think they will...) they will be in the top 12.
But they have not budged the last 2 weeks what is different this week? These past 2 week have seen several upsets of top teams by teams that havce slipped up just barely over Hawaii. the result is now many teams araound Hawaii are playing each other and teams that looked out of reach two weeks ago are now in range.
If Uconn defeats West Virginia Hawaii MIGHT be ahead of Uconn, granting them an automatic bid.
A PAC 10 or ACC implosion as described for Boise would also put Hawaii in without a #12 spot.
Here are the results Hawaii is looking for:
1) Virginia Tech over Virginia or Virginia losing the ACC championship.
2) Miami over BC or BC losing the ACC championship.
3) Kentucky over Tenessee
4) Texas A&M over Texas
5) FSU over Florida
6) ASU or UCLA over USC
7) Oklahoma St over Oklahoma, or Oklahomoa losing the BIG 12 Championship
8) UCLA or Oregon St over Oregon
9) Georgia Tech over Georgia
10) USC and Arizona over ASU
11) LSU winning the SEC Championship gameNote that at least one of #1 and #2 will happen, possibly both.
Hawaii needs 5 of these 11 situations to get to a BCS bowl. #1, #2, #6, #7b, #8 and #11 look likely, but who really knows what can happen.
gatorstud said:
posted on November 19, 2007 3:22 PM — 69.95.111.248 — link — abuse?
congrats to INDIANA for becoming bowl eligable...it's been a long time.....
to have the season they have had after losing their coach terry hoeppner at the beggining, really speaks a lot of the young men, and coaching staff they have there at indiana.....they could of felt sorry for themselves and been ground into the bottom of the big ten....but instead they stepped up...and played hard all seaason...for their fallen coach.....and for the university of indiana....
good job indiana......you deserve it...
go gators...and hokies
Hricane23 said:
posted on November 19, 2007 3:32 PM — 170.135.241.46 — link — abuse?
As a Kansas alum, I am fearful of the #2 ranking, considering how things have played out thus far. However, it should be noted that KU CANNOT fall victim to the Top-5 team losing to an unranked opponent phenomenon. Their next game is, of course, against another Top-5 opponent. Win that, and their opponent will again be ranked. Win that one, and they'll obviously be playing against the #1 or #2 (win out + an LSU loss = KU #1). Lose any, and they're not a Top-5 team anymore, so they still won't be able to lose to an unranked team as a Top-5.
Gotta find a silver lining to being #2 these days.
posted on November 19, 2007 4:16 PM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse? said:
#16) running with the top 5 losing to undefeated pattern:
LSU loss to Arkansas
WV loss to Pittsburgh
ASU loss to ArizonaThese are the only possibilities left this season. At a rate of one per week, I'd say two out of three ain't bad.
GA Boy said:
posted on November 19, 2007 7:39 PM — 97.89.26.241 — link — abuse?
It is not as unlikely as I thought for GA. The tough one to grasp (and the only way this happens) is KY ending their 23 year drought with a win over TN. All others are EXTREMELY possible.
USC beats Arizona St.(Ask Tommie T about this one)
Uconn beat WVA (even the eers fans can picture this one happening)
Mizzou beats KS (definitely a long shot)
That takes care of 3 of the 6 in front of GA.OK beats Mizzou in Big 12 championship (already happened once, why not twice) That takes care of 4 of 6.
GA beats #1 LSU in SEC championship game.
The last two left are the DAWGS and Buckeyes.
Man am I stretching on this one. And by the way, if I hear one more DAWG fan say that they hope TN beats KY and loses to LSU so we go to the Sugar Bowl, I am going to lose it. Too much football left for that type of defeatest attitude.GO DAWGS!!
bosgap said:
posted on November 20, 2007 1:16 AM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
first of all tennessee going to beat ky it may be by 1 or 21 i dont know but it will be 23 in a row and second lsu beat tennessee a few years ago in sec title game to keep tennessee from bowl championship seris so watch out tennessee has a chip on shoulder and if lsu does win unless its by a bunch and i doubt it there luck is out and third tennessee 35 georgia 14 so dont put them in bcs bowl cause 3 place in sec doesent deserve bcs and 2 place in the eastern division dont either all you chump voters never give tenn credit you drop them a spot for a 1 point victory over vandy but when tenn beat georgia they remained behind them in polls and when they beat south carolina you left carolina in front of them tennessee has won 7 out of 8 and you got them ranked 19 over last 8 games there atleast 8 teams or more lost more games so im goimg out on limb tenn over uk then tenn over lsu and you haters would still not want them in top 10 or bcs you all want new teams and your favorites like usc oklahoma and fla and west virginia i dont think but two or three teams could have played tennessee scedual and won the same games thee late losses bad they were close to fla and alabama within 8 points late and fell apart and they would have beat cal except for a fumble return and punt return i would like to play cal the wed after we beat ky anywhere but at cal and we would win GO BIG ORANGE
bosgap said:
posted on November 20, 2007 1:25 AM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
also tell me who ohio state has played the big ten is not even in the top 5 in toughest conferenc the big ten sucks this year michigan let appy state beat them in the big house then you moved them back to 13 after 2 open season losses there is the biased kentucky has never won anything then they beat lsu you move kentucky 13 spots but lsu only dropped 5 when a top ten team losses to an unranked team or a low ranked team they should drop atleast 10 ut dropped from 11 to 24 after losing to higher ranked cal what is your alls malfunction
GatorMatt
posted on November 20, 2007 1:44 AM — 70.171.18.91 — link — abuse? said:
#20 & 21
Good God, I think I just got dumber trying to read those posts. I understand that the things we type on here are not going to be graded for APA format, but use a period from time to time. It makes things much easier to read. I think you gave me a headache
bosgap said:
posted on November 20, 2007 1:47 AM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
hey gay boy im sorry i mean ga boy you think if tennessee beats ky then plays lsu that georgia deserves to play in any bcs game is absurd finishing 2 in eastern division and 3 overall in sec you dont deserve it after ut beat you by 21 this hole system needs a crack in the headsay ut beats lsu who gos georgia or lsu but i would rather see georgia there as ohio state who has not beat anyone
Zac said:
posted on November 20, 2007 2:02 PM — 209.36.193.14 — link — abuse?
Texas Zack (Posts 26 & 27, yes, I know you stuttered.), I think you and I are perhaps the only Zac(k)'s that feel that way. I have said as much in another of Kevin's threads. MO shouldn't be ranked below WVU.
Basis: MO & WVU both have 1 loss ea. MO's loss was at, then, Top-10 OK, which has since lost its 2nd game. WVU's loss was at, then, 18th ranked S FL, which has since lost 3 games. MO's next game: AT #2 & undefeated KS. WVU's next game: At HOME against 2-loss UConn (Pitt follows that in a week).Bottom Line: If MO runs the table, they should go to the NC. If KS runs the table, they should go to the NC. Who either would play against in the NC would depend upon how, ASU, LSU, & WVU do over the next couple of weeks, or other factors should all loose at least one more game.
As I've already said in an earlier thread, the NC is there for the taking, but this season will not reveal its champions until it's darn good and ready. The best is yet to come!!!
Spartacus
posted on November 20, 2007 3:26 PM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
Some games that might matter:
Texas 31 Texas A&M 24: Texas needs this game and plays it before Oklahoma does theirs. The Horns don't let this one get by them.
U.S.C. 27 Arizona State 17: Trojans run over the top of ASU.
L.S.U. 31 Arkansas 21: LSU shows up ready to play at home.
Boise State 30 Hawaii 27: Boise ends any discussion of Hawaii and puts themselves into the BCS picture.
West Virginia 31 Connecticut 17: Mounties sieze the opportunity here.
Kentucky 27 Tennessee 21: Kentucky wants this one more. Vols have huge road disadvantage.
Oregon 24 U.C.L.A. 20: Leaf should be better than UCLan's 3rd string wide receiver.
Georgia 24 Georgia Tech 19: Georgia hangs on and wins the East. Now what?
Florida 35 Florida State 16: Florida cements BCS invite.
Oklahoma 31 Oklahoma State 21: Sooners always bounce back. Patrick picks up slack. Pokes have too many WR problems now.
Boston College 34 Miami (Fla.) 17: Practice game for Ryan and BC.
Virginia Tech 23 Virginia 17: Too much defense for Cavs to handle.
Missouri 27 Kansas 24: #2 Kansas finally plays a good team and falls. The curse is now on West Virginia.
Tommie Trojan
posted on November 20, 2007 3:58 PM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse? said:
#29) I think Boise will cover your spread. Hawaii has a wake up call comming.
My upset pick is Uconn over WV. Don't know why, just a feeling.
Lots of good games on paper this week.
#26-28) The Kansas Missouri winner will be in the top 2. A BIG 12 championship game win will give them some more distance in the standings, with either Texas or Oklahoma.
Spartacus
posted on November 20, 2007 5:38 PM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
Here's why Kansas loses to Missouri:
In a great bonehead manuever, based solely on greed, Kansas opted to move their home game to the nuetral site of Kansas City, Missouri (Arrowhead Stadium). This was in order to draw more of Missouri's fan base and make more money (thinking that Missouri would have something to play for). Well, now that Kansas has something to play for, I really don't think that their gonna be all that happy about makin' a few extra thousand when they are actually risking millions. The crowd base will be predominately Tiger fans. This essentially becomes a home game for Missouri. Kansas is gonna have to SHOW ME!
Also: Kansas beat Kansas State 30-24, Colorado 19-14, Texas A&M 19-11 and Oklahoma State 43-28. Kansas beat these four stellar opponents by an average of 8.5 points per game. Kansas was held to less than 20 points in two of these games. Missouri lost to Oklahoma 31-41. They have beaten Illinois 40-34, Texas Tech 41-10, Colorado 55-10, Texas A&M 40-26 and Kansas State 49-32. Missouri has outscored these six teams by 17.2 points per game (including the loss to Oklahoma). No team has held Missouri to less than 31 points all year. Missouri has already played three teams (Oklahoma, Illinois and Texas Tech) that are better teams than any team that Kansas has played.
Every player at the Missouri skill positions is outstanding. Although Kansas plays solid defense, the talent is really not that great, and Kansas sticks to their assignments well. That usually breaks down against superior talent - which is what Missouri has a ton of. Chase Daniel, a name after my own heart (I chase my Jack with Red Wolf), will certainly have a big game here. The history of the Big 12 Conference tells me that the team with the superior offense moves on in this conference. Missouri will prove that they have that offense.
Now before anybody starts telling me all about Kansas' numbers, let me remind you that last year, I argued steadfastly that Ohio State and Michigan's #1 and #2 rated defense were overinflated from playing weaker competition. I laughed when Ohio State beat Michigan 42-39 and then both Florida and Southern Cal systematically took those defenses apart. This time it's gonna be the Missouri offense that takes apart the Kansas defense. Final Score: Missouri 27 Kansas 24.Tommie Trojan
Tomcat said:
posted on November 20, 2007 8:23 PM — 68.93.140.127 — link — abuse?
#29 Tommie T wish you hadnt picked the Horns
Hope you didnt jinx them.BTW how did you like that Texas Tech- offense last week ?
post #31 One factor in this post to consider is that Missu held Texas Tech to 10 points.
Thats something that A&M,OU,UT and OK st couldnt do, and an interesting stat IMO.
I kinda have to agree that the KU early season victories were against less than stellar opponents.Although they may not have some of the greatest atheletes in the conference they are playing as a team.Coach Mangino has done an excellent job this season. Who would have thought we would be talking about KU as #1- last year they couldnt even beat Baylor.
Looks like an exciting matchup in K.C.
picks
KU over Missu
UT over A&M
Ok st over OU
The XII champ game in S.A. ought to be a good one, whoever ends up there, I'd rather see a
KU vs UT than a Missu vs OU rematch
Hookem-Horns
VOLPIMP said:
posted on November 20, 2007 8:58 PM — 208.0.27.10 — link — abuse?
UT/Kentucky is up in the air simply because the Vols have struggled on the road and UK has struggled at home (Miss St). I don't think the UK home field advantage will bother the Vols that much. I do see our young secondary struggling with UK's offense. If the defense that beat Arkansas and UGA shows up we win, if the d that didn't show up for the mighty Gators and Bama rears it's head, we lose by 14 at least. Vols are way too unstable this year to make bold predictions, if we do meet LSU on December 1st we will definitely be the dog, which is a roll that suits us. I'd say we would have a 35% chance of getting the upset.
Spartacus
posted on November 21, 2007 9:14 AM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
Tomcat:
That's funny. But, your right. I'm not pickin' those Big 12 games too well lately. Surprisingly, I wouldn't mind missing on alot of these games. I still hold faint hope, like you do, of something completely ridiculous happening. I wouldn't care if everybody lost except for USC and Missouri. But, I can see why you don't want me to like Texas this week. Texas Tech has looked real good this year. Even before the Oklahoma game I had thought that this was perhaps the best TT team under Leach. That WR Crabtree has got to be the best freshmen WR I've seen since Mike Williams. I guess that I really don't need for Leach to come to UCLA. I don't know why he'd ever want to anyway. It would probably be a mistake. He's slowly building that program at Tech.
Tommie Trojan
GoWarriors said:
posted on November 24, 2007 1:23 AM — 71.246.250.15 — link — abuse?
Tomcat, Sparacus, and Ben Blatherer: If you insist on making predictions be sure you're correct about who's going to WIN. You were wrong in your other blogs and you're wrong here. Hawaii's class-act win over Boise should put a stop to your drivel. No wait, let me guess..you're predicting a loss against Washington too, right?
This is from a University of Hawaii Warrior-ette!
Spartacus
posted on November 24, 2007 9:46 AM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
GoWarriors:
We can't get them all right. But, it is nice to see that Hawaii finally has played a decent game against a somewhat decent opponent. I'm sorry - it's still the WAC. Last two times we played the "Rainbows" - I think that the average score was around 65-13 over the two games. That's when you only had Timmy Chang though. I'm sure the outcome would be a whole lot different with Colt Brennan back there - even though he was Matt Leinert's backup in high school ball. Go back to crackin' coconuts and leave the football stuff to "the professionals". Hawaii is still about 50 years away from competing for a National Championship.
Tommie Trojan
wvu-togo said:
posted on November 19, 2007 10:13 AM — 206.239.132.130 — link — abuse?While I'm excited about the prediction of WVU's playing for the NC, I would be interested in comments from others about their chances of winning under different scenarios like WVU vs;
LSU
OSU
OK
VT
GA
UK
Go Mountaineers!