January 22, 2008
Recruiting rankings (and coaching) matter
If you're even the slightest bit interested in recruiting, you need to go read the (latest) outstanding post at Sunday Morning Quarterback.
SMQ breaks down six years of Rivals recruiting rankings as well as the win/loss records of those teams. True to his reputation, SMQ breaks down the numbers in just about every way you would ever want And his analysis is simply outstanding.
So: Rivals was very, very good at picking the top teams – of the top 25 winningest teams of the last six years, all were either pegged in or very near their respective positions by the recruiting rankings or achieved them by winning against overwhelmingly lower-ranked opposition; of the top 25 teams according to the recruiting rankings, 18 are in the top 30 in winning percentage.
I don't want to spoil the fun, but winning in February? It matters.
Great teams get better by adding great talent. But winning in the fall takes more than just outstanding atheletes. It takes coaching, preparation, and talent development. Cases in point: Florida State and Notre Dame -- great talent, but mediocre results. And y'all probably remember my post blasting Weis for the lack of talent development taking place at Notre Dame.
The other really interesting point from SMQ is that Rivals -- and Scout, for that matter -- do a very good job at ranking talent. There are going to be some hits & misses, but the services do a good job in evaluating talent. (And I'm not just saying that because this blog is owned by Rivals, who offers a free 7-day trial membership!)
If Rivals indicates a team’s talent is good, it’s probably right; if it indicates it’s just average, or below average, that team probably still has a shot – but only to an extent. You’d be wrong if you cast your lot with the gurus completely, and wronger if you ignored them.
Seriously. Go read the whole thing. It's really, really, really good.
Comments:
posted on January 22, 2008 12:43 PM — link — abuse?Kevin Donahue
said:
That's a fair point, but I think that tends to validate some of the recruiting rankings. In other words, if Miami's class is rated high then there is an expectation that they will have players drafted.
The comparison of the recruiting rankings to the win/loss record is pretty insightful in and of it's own regard.
TE
posted on January 22, 2008 2:00 PM — 204.68.245.11 — link — abuse? said:
It's got holes in it when you compare the SOS numbers for the gross win %, and also, if you're going to take into consideration drafted players, then I'm sorry, but there's a HUGE hole there...
I mean, player development can't be "projected" as anything other than unscientific-at the LEAST. Couple that with how they'll develop from a physical standpoint, IE-Whose their S&C Coordinator, and how do they develop physically during their time on campus?
Also, what sort've technique did they learn? Did their coaches develop them from that standpoint?
Heck, Mark Roman was an NFL starter at safety, and still plays in the league, but to see what he might've become with Saban tutoring him as opposed to Steve Bernstein while he was in Baton Rouge, well, you see what I mean, here...
Tomcat said:
posted on January 22, 2008 2:17 PM — 70.242.185.82 — link — abuse?
Thanks for the link Kev-Very interesting analyisis concerning recruiting rankings and on feild results against{ BCS} opponents.
I would like to challenge the authors to continue this comparision with all Div-1A teams.
Coach Brown and the Horns always recruit well and now with coach Applewhite they will only improve in this area.He knows first hand what its like to be a student athelete at UT and alot of the recruits should relate well with their new running back coach.
Hookem-Horns top ten in every areaBayouBengal said:
posted on January 22, 2008 5:57 PM — 72.149.254.106 — link — abuse?
Very interesting article Kev!
I follow LSU recruiting like.....the Disciples follwed Jesus!
Most of the time rivals has a pretty good read on ranking players and recruiting classes, there are a few holes in the system though!
For example: LSU finished 1st in 2003 and was set to finish 1st again in 2004.....but LSU's last recruit to sign in 2004 was.....Jacob Hester. Hester was labled a 2 star recruit by rivals....therefore this brought LSU's average down slightly... LSU then finished 2nd in '04.
As we all know, J. Hester turned out to be alot better than his 2 star ranking that rivals gave him out of highschool!
Also that same year, JaMarcus Russell and Glenn Dorsey were labled 4 star recruits.....turns out, Russell was the 1st pick in the NFL draft in '07, and G Dorsey will either be 1st or 2nd in 2008!
Had rivals knew what was to come of LSU's '04 class.....they should of easily been ranked 1st instead of finishing 2nd!My point is......I agree with SMQ about how its up to the coaches to succeed in the players development! FSU has had talent coming out of the wazoo but have failed to get the full potential out of there big time recruits!
Can't wait until signing day!!!!!
Zac said:
posted on January 22, 2008 9:49 PM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
I agree; interesting analysis. However, I don’t necessarily agree with the general bum rap the top teams get, because their success involves more teams ranked lower than higher.
Think about it; if a team is ranked 20th, there are 19 teams in the country ranked higher. Given there are 6 BCS conferences, and there are always at least a couple of surprises among the Non-BCS conferences, that assumes an average of less than 2.4 teams ranked higher in that team’s conference. So, if a team’s ranked 10th, that means there are only 9 teams ranked higher. Chances are only one of them are in its conference. If a team is ranked 5th, there are only 4 teams ranked higher, and if a team is ranked 1st, none are. The point is, if a team is ranked 20th or higher, chances are the majority of their schedule involves teams ranked lower. Therefore, the majority of that team’s success will involve teams ranked lower, barring any upsets it may inflict or have inflicted upon it.
Otherwise, when a team is consistently highly regarded by the sports world, and consistently gets a Top 20 or higher recruiting class, and is itself consistently ranked in the Top-20, and comes out no better than 1 game over 500, year after year, I agree; something is wrong.
Tampa Hurricane
posted on January 23, 2008 8:35 AM — 24.96.199.254 — link — abuse? said:
BayouBengal, the way that the points system works on Rivals and Scouts rankings, the signing of Hester did not lower your ranking. The standings are based upon total points, so even signing a two star recruit gives you points. The only way that your analysis of 2004 would have been correct is if LSU decided not to sign a higher rated player in order to sign Hester.
BayouBengal said:
posted on January 23, 2008 9:39 AM — 72.149.254.106 — link — abuse?
Tampa.....
I was under the impression that on rivals.....the score was an average of the stars given to the players!
I know you get points for signing any player.....buy rivals tallies up your star rankings, and the school is ranked based on that average!
For example....Say FSU's score was a 3.56, and they added another recruit that was a 2 star....wouldn't that 3.56 go down!
I was always told, and assumed this was correct.....and, in 2004, I was told LSU's class finished 2nd overall b/c of the signing of Hester brought there average slightly down b/c of his 2star rank!
Kev.....a little enlightenment here! Tell me how rivals scoring works.
Tampa Hurricane
posted on January 23, 2008 9:57 AM — 24.96.199.254 — link — abuse? said:
BayouBengal,
You are under the incorrect impression on the class rankings. Rivals and Scout bases their rankings on total points. They do not base it on the average rating per player.
An example using 2007 Rivals rankings:
Ranking Team Recruits Points Average
1. Florida 27 2,959 3.89
2. USC 18 2,761 4.22
3. Tennessee 32 2,726 3.63
4. LSU 26 2,695 3.88
5. Texas 24 2,562 3.79
As you can see from their class rankings, USC had a higher average per player than Florida; however, Florida's recruit class was ranked higher then USC because they had 2,959 points compared to USC only having 2,761.
U. of S. C. 1978 said:
posted on January 23, 2008 10:27 PM — 97.82.188.250 — link — abuse?
There are a lot of categories that could be factored in to rank a teams season. Added complexity = better data? Maybe. Perhaps the most significant, defections to the NFL, and injuries.
I've been watching Rivals rankings and am pleased to see the Gamecocks hovering in and out of the top 25. So far not as well as last year but a couple of 4 star commits could ratchet us way up.
GO COCKS!OU-Ron
posted on January 24, 2008 11:23 AM — 216.201.209.146 — link — abuse? said:
Slow day today at Fanblogs, I just heard that two 5 star and one 4 star recruit was taking a look at OU this weekend.
They are from the great state of Alabama, I don't think we have much of a chance to pick them up but you never know.
If they did decide on OU, this would be the best recruiting class under the Stoops era. (Wish we could still give cars away) OK just joking, that's for all the Texas fans...
TE
posted on January 24, 2008 11:49 AM — 204.68.245.11 — link — abuse? said:
Saban's going to have the fans melt down on him...
Alabama native & alleged Crimson Tide class cornerstone commitment Julio Jones was asked to leave Florida on his visit because he was recruiting for another school...
Oklahoma's...LOL!
Also heard Mark Barron's mother lost her job at a hospital, and Lance Thompson-IE-Nick Saban's bag man at 'Bama-showed up on the doorstep after finding out Miles had an in-home with both mom & Barron, before Miles got there, offering the old job back if she'd just leave immediately to fill out the hiring paperwork...
Miles shows up, acts squirelly towards Miles, and now he's leaning back towards 'Bama...
But, again, it's all heresay...No smoke, at all...
Red Elephant Club Members (Bama Boosters) from Mobile aren't threatening the jobs of recruits like Phelon Jones & Sidell Corley last year, nor is Bama dangling employment inducements in front of other recruits parents'...
Naw, shucks no...I'm just making that all up!
posted on January 24, 2008 12:30 PM — 205.188.116.136 — link — abuse? said:
I really do think that ignorance is bliss when it comes to all these recruiting comings and goings. Tell me how we did when it's over...
I remember the first whiff of recruiting woes I ever heard, in early 1987. Auburn fans were very upset that this storied RB out of Pensacola didn't sign with us. Some kid named Emmitt Smith.
OU-Ron
posted on January 24, 2008 2:21 PM — 216.201.209.146 — link — abuse? said:
@14 TE, I finally ran down what you were reporting about Julio Jones, there's nothing to it. The following was just reported.
"In a Thursday recruiting story, The Sun inaccurately reported that All-America wide receiver Julio Jones was sent home early from his University of Florida visit by the coaches and that Jones, who is from Foley, Ala., was recruiting for Oklahoma while he was in Gainesville.
Continue to 2nd paragraph Sources confirmed Thursday that Jones, in fact, stayed for his entire visit and had not done any recruiting for another school. The Sun regrets the errors. "
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Tampa Hurricane
said:
posted on January 22, 2008 12:41 PM — 24.96.199.254 — link — abuse?Interesting article, but they should also fator in players leaving teams early for the NFL draft and transfers. Having a good draft class this year does not good four or five years down the road (when they would be seniors) if the majority of those players leave early. In my opinion that (along with a terrible coach who couldn't develop players) is what happened to Miami. They are a 5-7 team that in the latest mock drafts have two players going in the top 8!