September 30, 2008

Unofficial BCS standings - Week 5

BCS Guru is back, and my results last week differed from his due to a different value of the median and because I used the median for both missing computers and he uses 0 for one counting it as the low. This IMO understates the computer component relative to the actual BCS standings. The only difference this would make this week would be that Boise State would be over Ohio State.

With the Harris Poll the error falls from 0.03 to 0.005 from the expected value of the actual BCS standings. This is FAR less than the 0.08 change typical even for teams who do nothing unexpected.

1) 0.9472 Oklahoma
2) 0.9226 Alabama
3) 0.8135 Texas
4) 0.7975 LSU
5) 0.7674 Missouri
6) 0.6897 Penn State
7) 0.5983 Georgia
8) 0.5712 South Florida
9) 0.5700 USC
10) 0.5664 Brigham Young
11) 0.5226 Utah
12) 0.5183 Texas Tech
13) 0.4167 Ohio State
14) 0.4120 Boise State
15) 0.4025 Florida
16) 0.3591 Auburn
17) 0.3391 Vanderbilt
18) 0.2377 Wisconsin
19) 0.2343 Kansas
20) 0.2295 Virginia Tech
21) 0.2095 Connecticut
22) 0.1641 Northwestern
23) 0.1582 Oregon
24) 0.1350 Oklahoma State
25) 0.1189 Fresno State

28) 0.0536 Ball State
34) 0.0152 Tulsa

Oklahoma has crossed the 0.9425 needed to say that it is worthy of a top 2 possition. Texas Tech has crossed the 0.4925 needed to claim they deserve a top 14 spot needed for BCS eligiblity.

My Hit Lists feel a little redundant this week, so I will skip them.

Comments:

Unofficial BCS standings - Week 5
BCS Guru is back, and my results last week differed from his due to a different value of the median and because I used the median for both missing computers and he uses 0 for one counting it as the low. This IMO understates the computer component relative to the actual BCS standings. The only difference this would make this week would be that Boise State would be over Ohio State. With the Harris Poll the error falls from 0.03 to 0.005 from the expected value of the actual BCS standings. This is FAR less than the 0.08 change typical even for teams who do nothing unexpected. 1) 0.9472 Oklahoma 2) 0.9226 Alabama 3) 0.8135 Texas 4) 0.7975 LSU 5) 0.7674 Missouri 6) 0.6897 Penn State 7) 0.5983 Georgia 8) 0.5712 South Florida 9) 0.5700 USC 10) 0.5664 Brigham Young 11) 0.5226 Utah 12) 0.5183 Texas Tech 13) 0.4167 Ohio State 14) 0.4120 Boise State 15) 0.4025 Florida 16) 0.3591 Auburn 17) 0.3391 Vanderbilt 18) 0.2377 Wisconsin 19) 0.2343 Kansas 20) 0.2295 Virginia Tech 21) 0.2095 Connecticut 22) 0.1641 Northwestern 23) 0.1582 Oregon 24) 0.1350 Oklahoma State 25) 0.1189 Fresno State 28) 0.0536 Ball State 34) 0.0152 Tulsa Oklahoma has crossed the 0.9425 needed to say that it is worthy of a top 2 possition. Texas Tech has crossed the 0.4925 needed to claim they deserve a top 14 spot needed for BCS eligiblity. My Hit Lists feel a little redundant this week, so I will skip them.