October 26, 2008

What does the BCS picture look like now?

After an "upset Saturday" that failed to produce significant upsets, the BCS picture is becoming more clear in advance of the week 9 BCS football polls.

Texas and Alabama - the nation's top two undefeated teams - have a clear road to the BCS National Championship game. In the words of legendary Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer - just win, baby. If the Horns and Tide win out (including their respective conference championship games), then the two will meet in the National Championship game. Period. End of story.

Undefeated Penn State will need help to reach the BCS National Championship game. For PSU, either Texas or Alabama must lose while the Nittany Lions must continue to win out. A UT or UA loss puts Coach Paterno and company in Miami, provided they remain undefeated. If Penn State loses - regardless of what happens above them - then PSU will likely get jumped by another one-loss team.

The prospects for the one-loss teams near the top of the polls became bleaker this weekend. The top three teams - by virtue of their sizable leads in the coming BCS poll - will not get jumped if they win out. OU, USC, UGA, and Florida are playing out the rest of the season just for a BCS game berth. They cannot reach the BCS National Championship game without losses from at least two of the three top undefeated teams.

This week's BCS poll results will be very telling for the down-but-(how are they never?)-not-out Ohio State Buckeyes. Despite the loss to Penn State, the Bucks still have the inside track on a Rose Bowl bid if PSU makes it to the championship game. How's that? Well, OSU is likely to be ranked in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. If Penn State doesn't play in the Rose Bowl, then Ohio State will.

And - despite the rising number of non-BCS teams trying to wear Cinderella's slipper - all of these developments do not bode well for the Utahs, Boise States, and Tulsas of the world. Quite the contrary, actually. After you take your automatic qualifiers and the the strong second teams from the BCS conferences, there may be just one BCS bowl game slot remaining. So - despite the number of non-BCS teams that could stake a claim - it now appears that only one will get to play in a BCS bowl game.

Here are my (totally worthless) BCS projections:

BCS CG: Texas vs Penn State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs USC
Orange Bowl: FSU vs Georgia
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Boise State

Comments:

What does the BCS picture look like now?
After an "upset Saturday" that failed to produce significant upsets, the BCS picture is becoming more clear in advance of the week 9 BCS football polls. Texas and Alabama - the nation's top two undefeated teams - have a clear road to the BCS National Championship game. In the words of legendary Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer - just win, baby. If the Horns and Tide win out (including their respective conference championship games), then the two will meet in the National Championship game. Period. End of story. Undefeated Penn State will need help to reach the BCS National Championship game. For PSU, either Texas or Alabama must lose while the Nittany Lions must continue to win out. A UT or UA loss puts Coach Paterno and company in Miami, provided they remain undefeated. If Penn State loses - regardless of what happens above them - then PSU will likely get jumped by another one-loss team. The prospects for the one-loss teams near the top of the polls became bleaker this weekend. The top three teams - by virtue of their sizable leads in the coming BCS poll - will not get jumped if they win out. OU, USC, UGA, and Florida are playing out the rest of the season just for a BCS game berth. They cannot reach the BCS National Championship game without losses from at least two of the three top undefeated teams. This week's BCS poll results will be very telling for the down-but-(how are they never?)-not-out Ohio State Buckeyes. Despite the loss to Penn State, the Bucks still have the inside track on a Rose Bowl bid if PSU makes it to the championship game. How's that? Well, OSU is likely to be ranked in the top 14 of the final BCS standings. If Penn State doesn't play in the Rose Bowl, then Ohio State will. And - despite the rising number of non-BCS teams trying to wear Cinderella's slipper - all of these developments do not bode well for the Utahs, Boise States, and Tulsas of the world. Quite the contrary, actually. After you take your automatic qualifiers and the the strong second teams from the BCS conferences, there may be just one BCS bowl game slot remaining. So - despite the number of non-BCS teams that could stake a claim - it now appears that only one will get to play in a BCS bowl game. Here are my (totally worthless) BCS projections: BCS CG: Texas vs Penn State Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs USC Orange Bowl: FSU vs Georgia Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs West Virginia Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Boise State