November 16, 2008

Updated Conference Postseason Picture

Here is a breakdown of the bowl situation for each conference.

ACC: 8 Bowl Slots, Plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 8 - Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virgina Tech, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech
Needs 1 win: 1 - Virginia
Needs 2 wins: 3- Clemson, Duke, North Carolina State
Eliminated: NONE

Projected: +1. Any number from 8-12 is possible. They will likely have 9-10 eligible teams, possibly giving them and extra eligible team.

Maryland and Miami control their own fate for the ACC championship game. If they lose a game, and they both have tough tests ahead, the conference is up in the air. I might comment with further detail later this week.

Big 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot
Eligible: 7 - Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin
Needs 1 win: 1 - Illinois
Eliminated: 3 - Michigan, Indiana, Purdue

Projected: 0. Any number from 7-8 is possible. They will likely have 7 or 8 eligible teams, but could place a second team in a BCS bowl.

If Penn State beats Michigan State they are the champions.
If Penn State loses and Ohio State beats Michigan Ohio State will be the champions.
If Michigan State beats Penn State and Ohio State loses Michigan State will be the champions.

Big 12: 7 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 7 - Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Needs 1 win: 1 - Colorado
Eliminated: 4 - Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Baylor

Projected: -2. Any number from 7-8 is possible. Colorado would be fortunate to get the win. They will likely have 7-8 eligible teams, leaving them short two slots if they are able to send two teams to a BCS bowl.

Missouri will be in the Big 12 championship game.

If Texas Tech beats Oklahoma they will be in the Big 12 championship game.
Texas Tech would also win if they lose to Oklahoma and Oklahoma then lost to Oklahoma State.
Texas would win if Oklahoma beat Texas Tech and Texas Tech lost to Baylor.
Oklahoma would win if they beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and Texas lost to Texas A&M.

If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech win their other games the highest ranked team in the BCS standings will be in the Big 12 championship game. This would likely be Oklahoma.

Big East + Notre Dame: 5 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 6 - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut, South Florida, Notre Dame
Needs 1 win: 2 - Louisville, Rutgers
Eliminated: 1 - Syracuse

Projected: +1. Any number from 6-8 is possible. They will likely have 7-8 teams eligible, giving them an extra bowl eligible team or two.

Like the ACC, the Big East championship picture is still very cloudy. It is tractable now and I may get around to it latter this week. If Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh they will have a very strong lead.

C-USA: 6 Slots

Eligible: 4 - East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice, Houston
Needs 1 win: 3 - Memphis, S. Miss, UTEP
Needs 2 wins: 1 - Marshall
Eliminated: 4 - UAB, UCF, Tulane, SMU

Projected: +0. Any number from 4-8 is possible. They will likely have 5-6 teams eligible, possibly leaving them short a slot.

Houston controls their own fate.
Tulsa needs Houston to lose to Rice or UTEP and to beat Tulane and Marshall.
Rice needs to beat Houston and Marshall and have Tulsa lose to Tulane or Marshall.
UTEP might have possibilities if they beat Houston and Tulsa or Rice lose both their remaining games, though I would have to examine the tie breakers more fully.

East Carolina needs to beat UAB or UTEP.
Marshall needs East Carolina to lose to both UAB and UTEP and beat Rice and Tulsa.
Memphis needs East Carolina to lose to both UAB and UTEP and Marshall to lose to Rice or Tulsa, while beating both UCF and Tulane.
Unexplored remote possibilities exist for the other C-USA east teams should East Carolina lose bothe games while Marshall and Memphis both drop a game.

MAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 4 - Ball State, C. Michigan, W. Michigan, Buffalo
Needs 1 win: 3 - Akron, Bowling Green, N. Illinois
Eliminated: 6 - Temple, Miami (OH), Kent State, Ohio, Toledo, E. Michigan

Projected: +4. Any number from 5-7 is possible. They will likely have 6-7 teams eligible leaving them an extra 3 or 4 eligible teams.

Central Michigan needs to beat Ball State to win the MAC West.
Ball State needs to beat Central Michigan and Western Michigan to win the MAC West.
Western Michigan needs Ball State to beat Central Michigan and Central Michigan to lose to Eastern Michigan to win the MAC West.
If Ball State beats Central Michigan, Western Michigan beats Ball State and Central Michigan beats Eastern Michigan tiebreakers are employed. This would fall to which team had the stronger opponents from the MAC East.

MWC: 4 Slots

Eligible: 4- Utah, TCU, BYU, Air Force
Needs 1 win: 2 - Colorado State, UNLV
Eliminated: 3 - Wyoming, New Mexico, SDSU

Projected: +0. Any number from 4-6 is possible. They will likely have 4-5 teams eligible and could send one to the BCS, leaving them anywhere from one short to one over.

Utah wins the MWC outright with a win over BYU.
Utah and BYU would share the title if BYU beats Utah, along with TCU if TCU beats Air Force.

Navy / Independent: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Navy

Projected: +0.

PAC 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot

Eligible: 5 - USC, Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, California
Needs 1 win: 1 - Stanford
Needs 2 wins: 2 - UCLA, Arizona State
Eliminated: 2 - Washington, Washington State

Projected: -2. Any number from 5 to 7 is possible. They will likely get 5-6 teams eligible and could qualify a second BCS team leaving them 2 short.

Oregon State wins the PAC 10 with wins over Arizona and Oregon State.
USC wins with an Oregon State loss to Arizona and a win over UCLA.
If Oregon beats Oregon State, USC defeats UCLA and Oregon State defeats Arizona the team highest in the BCS standings would go to the Rose Bowl. This would be USC, unless they lose to Notre Dame.

SEC: 8 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots

Eligible: 8 - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
Needs 1 win: 1 - Auburn
Needs 2 wins: 1- Arkansas
Eliminated: 2 - Mississippi State, Tennessee

Projected: -2. Any number from 8-10 is possible. They will likely get 8 teams eligible, leaving them two teams short. If Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and Florida or Alabama lose their two remaining games they may not place a second team in the BCS.

Alabama will play Florida in the SEC championship game.

Sun Belt: 1 Slot

Eligible: 1 - Troy
Needs 1 win: 1 - LA-Lafayette, Florida Atlantic
Needs 2 wins: 3 - Florida International, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State
Eliminated: LA-Monroe, North Texas

Projected: +2. Any number from 1 to 5 teams is possible. They will likely have 2-3 eligible teams.

Troy would win the Sun Belt with a win over LA-Lafayette.
LA-Lafayette would win the Sun Belt with a win over Troy and Middle Tennessee State.
After this, ugliness ensues.

WAC: 3 Slots

Eligible: 5 - Boise State, San Jose State, LA Tech, Nevada, Fresno State
Needs 1 win: 1 - Hawaii
Eliminated: 3 - New Mexico State, Utah State, Idaho

Projected: +6. Any number from 5-6 is possible. They will likely have 6 eligible teams and have an outside shot at a BCS bowl.

Boise State wins the WAC with a win over Nevada or Fresno State or a Nevada loss to LA Tech.
Nevada wins the WAC with a win over Boise State and LA Tech and a Boise State loss to Fresno State.

Total
Although the PAC 10, SEC and Big 12 could be lacking a total of 6 teams, the ACC, Big East, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt should have 11 extra teams available to fill the gaps. Perhaps we need another two bowls for those final 5 teams.

The recent moves by the Sun Belt and WAC to position themselves as alternates in several bowl games may well pay off this year.

Comments:

Updated Conference Postseason Picture
Here is a breakdown of the bowl situation for each conference. ACC: 8 Bowl Slots, Plus 1 BCS slot Eligible: 8 - Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virgina Tech, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech Needs 1 win: 1 - Virginia Needs 2 wins: 3- Clemson, Duke, North Carolina State Eliminated: NONE Projected: +1. Any number from 8-12 is possible. They will likely have 9-10 eligible teams, possibly giving them and extra eligible team. Maryland and Miami control their own fate for the ACC championship game. If they lose a game, and they both have tough tests ahead, the conference is up in the air. I might comment with further detail later this week. Big 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot Eligible: 7 - Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin Needs 1 win: 1 - Illinois Eliminated: 3 - Michigan, Indiana, Purdue Projected: 0. Any number from 7-8 is possible. They will likely have 7 or 8 eligible teams, but could place a second team in a BCS bowl. If Penn State beats Michigan State they are the champions. If Penn State loses and Ohio State beats Michigan Ohio State will be the champions. If Michigan State beats Penn State and Ohio State loses Michigan State will be the champions. Big 12: 7 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots Eligible: 7 - Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State Needs 1 win: 1 - Colorado Eliminated: 4 - Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Baylor Projected: -2. Any number from 7-8 is possible. Colorado would be fortunate to get the win. They will likely have 7-8 eligible teams, leaving them short two slots if they are able to send two teams to a BCS bowl. Missouri will be in the Big 12 championship game. If Texas Tech beats Oklahoma they will be in the Big 12 championship game. Texas Tech would also win if they lose to Oklahoma and Oklahoma then lost to Oklahoma State. Texas would win if Oklahoma beat Texas Tech and Texas Tech lost to Baylor. Oklahoma would win if they beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and Texas lost to Texas A&M. If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech win their other games the highest ranked team in the BCS standings will be in the Big 12 championship game. This would likely be Oklahoma. Big East + Notre Dame: 5 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot Eligible: 6 - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut, South Florida, Notre Dame Needs 1 win: 2 - Louisville, Rutgers Eliminated: 1 - Syracuse Projected: +1. Any number from 6-8 is possible. They will likely have 7-8 teams eligible, giving them an extra bowl eligible team or two. Like the ACC, the Big East championship picture is still very cloudy. It is tractable now and I may get around to it latter this week. If Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh they will have a very strong lead. C-USA: 6 Slots Eligible: 4 - East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice, Houston Needs 1 win: 3 - Memphis, S. Miss, UTEP Needs 2 wins: 1 - Marshall Eliminated: 4 - UAB, UCF, Tulane, SMU Projected: +0. Any number from 4-8 is possible. They will likely have 5-6 teams eligible, possibly leaving them short a slot. Houston controls their own fate. Tulsa needs Houston to lose to Rice or UTEP and to beat Tulane and Marshall. Rice needs to beat Houston and Marshall and have Tulsa lose to Tulane or Marshall. UTEP might have possibilities if they beat Houston and Tulsa or Rice lose both their remaining games, though I would have to examine the tie breakers more fully. East Carolina needs to beat UAB or UTEP. Marshall needs East Carolina to lose to both UAB and UTEP and beat Rice and Tulsa. Memphis needs East Carolina to lose to both UAB and UTEP and Marshall to lose to Rice or Tulsa, while beating both UCF and Tulane. Unexplored remote possibilities exist for the other C-USA east teams should East Carolina lose bothe games while Marshall and Memphis both drop a game. MAC: 3 Slots Eligible: 4 - Ball State, C. Michigan, W. Michigan, Buffalo Needs 1 win: 3 - Akron, Bowling Green, N. Illinois Eliminated: 6 - Temple, Miami (OH), Kent State, Ohio, Toledo, E. Michigan Projected: +4. Any number from 5-7 is possible. They will likely have 6-7 teams eligible leaving them an extra 3 or 4 eligible teams. Central Michigan needs to beat Ball State to win the MAC West. Ball State needs to beat Central Michigan and Western Michigan to win the MAC West. Western Michigan needs Ball State to beat Central Michigan and Central Michigan to lose to Eastern Michigan to win the MAC West. If Ball State beats Central Michigan, Western Michigan beats Ball State and Central Michigan beats Eastern Michigan tiebreakers are employed. This would fall to which team had the stronger opponents from the MAC East. MWC: 4 Slots Eligible: 4- Utah, TCU, BYU, Air Force Needs 1 win: 2 - Colorado State, UNLV Eliminated: 3 - Wyoming, New Mexico, SDSU Projected: +0. Any number from 4-6 is possible. They will likely have 4-5 teams eligible and could send one to the BCS, leaving them anywhere from one short to one over. Utah wins the MWC outright with a win over BYU. Utah and BYU would share the title if BYU beats Utah, along with TCU if TCU beats Air Force. Navy / Independent: 1 Slot Eligible: 1 - Navy Projected: +0. PAC 10: 6 Slots, plus 1 BCS slot Eligible: 5 - USC, Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, California Needs 1 win: 1 - Stanford Needs 2 wins: 2 - UCLA, Arizona State Eliminated: 2 - Washington, Washington State Projected: -2. Any number from 5 to 7 is possible. They will likely get 5-6 teams eligible and could qualify a second BCS team leaving them 2 short. Oregon State wins the PAC 10 with wins over Arizona and Oregon State. USC wins with an Oregon State loss to Arizona and a win over UCLA. If Oregon beats Oregon State, USC defeats UCLA and Oregon State defeats Arizona the team highest in the BCS standings would go to the Rose Bowl. This would be USC, unless they lose to Notre Dame. SEC: 8 Slots, plus 2 BCS slots Eligible: 8 - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt Needs 1 win: 1 - Auburn Needs 2 wins: 1- Arkansas Eliminated: 2 - Mississippi State, Tennessee Projected: -2. Any number from 8-10 is possible. They will likely get 8 teams eligible, leaving them two teams short. If Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and Florida or Alabama lose their two remaining games they may not place a second team in the BCS. Alabama will play Florida in the SEC championship game. Sun Belt: 1 Slot Eligible: 1 - Troy Needs 1 win: 1 - LA-Lafayette, Florida Atlantic Needs 2 wins: 3 - Florida International, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State Eliminated: LA-Monroe, North Texas Projected: +2. Any number from 1 to 5 teams is possible. They will likely have 2-3 eligible teams. Troy would win the Sun Belt with a win over LA-Lafayette. LA-Lafayette would win the Sun Belt with a win over Troy and Middle Tennessee State. After this, ugliness ensues. WAC: 3 Slots Eligible: 5 - Boise State, San Jose State, LA Tech, Nevada, Fresno State Needs 1 win: 1 - Hawaii Eliminated: 3 - New Mexico State, Utah State, Idaho Projected: +6. Any number from 5-6 is possible. They will likely have 6 eligible teams and have an outside shot at a BCS bowl. Boise State wins the WAC with a win over Nevada or Fresno State or a Nevada loss to LA Tech. Nevada wins the WAC with a win over Boise State and LA Tech and a Boise State loss to Fresno State. Total Although the PAC 10, SEC and Big 12 could be lacking a total of 6 teams, the ACC, Big East, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt should have 11 extra teams available to fill the gaps. Perhaps we need another two bowls for those final 5 teams. The recent moves by the Sun Belt and WAC to position themselves as alternates in several bowl games may well pay off this year.