May 8, 2009

2009 Preseason Rankings - Preview

The fine folks at lsufootball.net have collected and tabulated the published polls into an average that should be a good reflection of the initial AP poll.

They appear to update it as new polls come available, so this should be a good link to check out when the college football withdrawn pangs strike.

I have ported the data to excel to represent a more traditional vote count and compute a standard deviation. My average figures do not exclude the highest and lowest values, swapping FSU and Cal and a few ORV's.

The following data is static. For a current picture go here.

Top 25:

Team (FPV) Points, AVE, SD
1) Florida (11) 323, 1.15, 0.38
2) Texas (2) 307, 2.38, 1.12
3) Oklahoma 295, 3.31, 1.38
4) USC 276, 4.77, 1.96

5) Alabama 254, 6.46, 2.79
6) Oklahoma State 238, 7.69, 2.56
7) Virginia Tech 231, 8.23, 4.57
8) LSU 229, 8.38, 3.20
9) Ohio State 220, 9.07, 3.01
10) Ole Miss 214, 9.53, 3.60

11) Georgia Tech 176, 12.46, 1.85
12) Penn State 163, 13.46, 3.26
13) Oregon 149, 14.54, 5.75
14) Georgia 132, 15.85, 3.73
15) Boise State 130, 16.00, 6.26
16) Florida State 116, 17.08, 5.77
17) Cal 114, 17.23, 4.2

18) TCU 89, 19.15, 5.06
19-T) Utah 86, 19.38, 3.23
19-T) Iowa 86, 19.38, 5.22
21) North Carolina 74, 20.3, 6.17

[Note: If you are not one of the above teams nor play at least three of these teams you have no chance of at the 2009-2010 national title.]

22) Pittsburgh 51, 22.08, 5.19
23) Kansas 45, 22.54, 3.61
24) Notre Dame 41, 22.84, 4.88
25) Texas Tech 32, 23.54, 2.82

Others receiving votes:
Nebraska 29, Miami(FL) 23, Oregon State 19, Clemsonn 15, BYU 14, East Carolina 11, West Virginia 7, North Carolina State 6, Minnesota 5, Cincinnati 5, South Florida 5, Tennessee 5, Auburn 2, Boston College 2, Michigan State 2, Arkansas 1, Houston 1, Rutgers 1, Vanderbilt 1

Conference tallies:
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
ACC: 4
PAC 10: 3
BIG 10: 3
MWC: 2
WAC: 1
Big East: 1
IND: 1

This looks be a fairly reasonable estimate of the staring positions for 2009, one I like a lot. I really want to see a #3 undefeated Big East champion lose to a #10 one loss MWC champion in the Orange Bowl this year. This smells like TCU's year to me.

[EDIT]: Remember, you heard it here first. - zac

Notre Dame might even go 9-3 and get a BCS Berth.

Now I am off to figure out the physics of Red Matter... (Warning, mild Star Trek spoiler)

Comments:

2009 Preseason Rankings - Preview
The fine folks at lsufootball.net have collected and tabulated the published polls into an average that should be a good reflection of the initial AP poll. They appear to update it as new polls come available, so this should be a good link to check out when the college football withdrawn pangs strike. I have ported the data to excel to represent a more traditional vote count and compute a standard deviation. My average figures do not exclude the highest and lowest values, swapping FSU and Cal and a few ORV's. The following data is static. For a current picture go here. Top 25: Team (FPV) Points, AVE, SD 1) Florida (11) 323, 1.15, 0.38 2) Texas (2) 307, 2.38, 1.12 3) Oklahoma 295, 3.31, 1.38 4) USC 276, 4.77, 1.96 5) Alabama 254, 6.46, 2.79 6) Oklahoma State 238, 7.69, 2.56 7) Virginia Tech 231, 8.23, 4.57 8) LSU 229, 8.38, 3.20 9) Ohio State 220, 9.07, 3.01 10) Ole Miss 214, 9.53, 3.60 11) Georgia Tech 176, 12.46, 1.85 12) Penn State 163, 13.46, 3.26 13) Oregon 149, 14.54, 5.75 14) Georgia 132, 15.85, 3.73 15) Boise State 130, 16.00, 6.26 16) Florida State 116, 17.08, 5.77 17) Cal 114, 17.23, 4.2 18) TCU 89, 19.15, 5.06 19-T) Utah 86, 19.38, 3.23 19-T) Iowa 86, 19.38, 5.22 21) North Carolina 74, 20.3, 6.17 [Note: If you are not one of the above teams nor play at least three of these teams you have no chance of at the 2009-2010 national title.] 22) Pittsburgh 51, 22.08, 5.19 23) Kansas 45, 22.54, 3.61 24) Notre Dame 41, 22.84, 4.88 25) Texas Tech 32, 23.54, 2.82 Others receiving votes: Nebraska 29, Miami(FL) 23, Oregon State 19, Clemsonn 15, BYU 14, East Carolina 11, West Virginia 7, North Carolina State 6, Minnesota 5, Cincinnati 5, South Florida 5, Tennessee 5, Auburn 2, Boston College 2, Michigan State 2, Arkansas 1, Houston 1, Rutgers 1, Vanderbilt 1 Conference tallies: SEC: 5 Big 12: 5 ACC: 4 PAC 10: 3 BIG 10: 3 MWC: 2 WAC: 1 Big East: 1 IND: 1 This looks be a fairly reasonable estimate of the staring positions for 2009, one I like a lot. I really want to see a #3 undefeated Big East champion lose to a #10 one loss MWC champion in the Orange Bowl this year. This smells like TCU's year to me. [EDIT]: Remember, you heard it here first. - zac Notre Dame might even go 9-3 and get a BCS Berth. Now I am off to figure out the physics of Red Matter... (Warning, mild Star Trek spoiler)