June 21, 2009

Who is the most overrated team this pre-season?

OU-Ron brought this question up, so I bring back this topic. For the analysis here I will use LSUFootball.net's compilation of numerous polls, with three more than where included for the last cycle.

This is mostly a visceral reaction. I am sure the thoughts in the comments will be much more thorough.

1) Florida. Urban Meyer does great in even years. This is an odd year. I don't see them doing worst than 9-3, even in a bad year. They certainly belong in the top 5. Let them be #1 until someone beats them. That's what I say.
2) Texas. I dunno. #2? I think that might be a bit much. I think they are only ahead of Oklahoma because people are fixated on the win last year.
3) Oklahoma. I would put them over Texas.
4) USC. So far the rankings look pretty good. I would not be upset if USC loses a few and proves they don't belong here though.

The top 4 look like they will all be top 15 teams even if they have a bad year. Here is where things get interesting.

5) Alabama. Really? Are they really that improved from when I last saw them?
6) Virginia Tech. I don't know that the ACC can get a team this high. Too much parity in the conference to do so.
7) Oklahoma State? I could see Texas Tech here, maybe. Oklahoma State? I am sure someone will tell me why.
8) Ohio State. I might swap them with Penn State. They are not too far off.
9) Ole Miss. Last year I compared Utah to the teams of the SEC. In talent, work ethic and personality Ole Miss is the team that looked the most like Utah to me. That has not changed since then. I see both of these teams as equal, and near Boise State. I would tend towards TCU here.
10) LSU. I dunno. Punt. They look like a team I would tend to bump up into some of the holes I left above.
11) Penn State. I think this is a little low.
12) Georgia Tech. An ACC team might make it here, but which one of the 8 contenders?
13) Oregon. Wait... What? I'll believe it when I see it. Utah and Boise State this year should be very telling games one way or another. I'll admit bias against Oregon.
14) Boise State. Meh.
15) California. Meh.
16) Georgia. Meh.
17) FSU. I could see several ACC teams bunched up here.
18) North Carolina. Maybe I would go Maryland or Miami(FL). It's getting close to an ACC pick'em here.
19) TCU. All I am going to say is ... look out.
20) Utah. This is what the longest regular season and bowl winning streaks get you?
21) Iowa. Ok they did beat Penn State, but really?
22) Kansas. Meh.
23) Nebraska. Sorry, don't believe you all anymore.
24) Notre Dame. I strongly agree with this spot.
25) Texas Tech. Lower then Oklahoma State why?
Others:
Pittsburgh, Miami(FL), Oregon State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, BYU, East Carolina, South Florida, Clemson, Michigan State, NC State, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Auburn, Boston College, Minnesota, Arkansas, Houston

Big East: Before it is all said and done I think a Big East team will show up on the scene.

To excel in the rankings a conference needs 3-4 teams who consistently beat the rest of the conference and a solid middle of the conference that win OOC games. The Big 12 and SEC fit this recently and we can see the results. The MWC does to, but without the solid middle and the results their are visible as well. The ACC and Big East have 6-8 teams that kill each other, only the Big East is not as good OOC. If you only have 1 or 2 contenders, like the PAC 10, and WAC, you are out of the race if your champion goes down.

When it comes to parity in a conference you need to have a little, but not too much.

My top 25:
1) Florida
2) Oklahoma
3) Texas
4) USC
5) Penn State
6) LSU
7) Texas Tech
8) Ohio State
9) TCU
10) Alabama
11) Virginia Tech
12) Utah
13) Ole Miss
14) Boise State
15) Georgia
16) California
17) Georgia Tech
18) Oregon
19) FSU
20) Maryland
21) Kansas
22) Oklahoma State
23) Notre Dame
24) West Virginia
25) BYU

Ok, now for the real experts:

Comments:

Who is the most overrated team this pre-season?
OU-Ron brought this question up, so I bring back this topic. For the analysis here I will use LSUFootball.net's compilation of numerous polls, with three more than where included for the last cycle. This is mostly a visceral reaction. I am sure the thoughts in the comments will be much more thorough. 1) Florida. Urban Meyer does great in even years. This is an odd year. I don't see them doing worst than 9-3, even in a bad year. They certainly belong in the top 5. Let them be #1 until someone beats them. That's what I say. 2) Texas. I dunno. #2? I think that might be a bit much. I think they are only ahead of Oklahoma because people are fixated on the win last year. 3) Oklahoma. I would put them over Texas. 4) USC. So far the rankings look pretty good. I would not be upset if USC loses a few and proves they don't belong here though. The top 4 look like they will all be top 15 teams even if they have a bad year. Here is where things get interesting. 5) Alabama. Really? Are they really that improved from when I last saw them? 6) Virginia Tech. I don't know that the ACC can get a team this high. Too much parity in the conference to do so. 7) Oklahoma State? I could see Texas Tech here, maybe. Oklahoma State? I am sure someone will tell me why. 8) Ohio State. I might swap them with Penn State. They are not too far off. 9) Ole Miss. Last year I compared Utah to the teams of the SEC. In talent, work ethic and personality Ole Miss is the team that looked the most like Utah to me. That has not changed since then. I see both of these teams as equal, and near Boise State. I would tend towards TCU here. 10) LSU. I dunno. Punt. They look like a team I would tend to bump up into some of the holes I left above. 11) Penn State. I think this is a little low. 12) Georgia Tech. An ACC team might make it here, but which one of the 8 contenders? 13) Oregon. Wait... What? I'll believe it when I see it. Utah and Boise State this year should be very telling games one way or another. I'll admit bias against Oregon. 14) Boise State. Meh. 15) California. Meh. 16) Georgia. Meh. 17) FSU. I could see several ACC teams bunched up here. 18) North Carolina. Maybe I would go Maryland or Miami(FL). It's getting close to an ACC pick'em here. 19) TCU. All I am going to say is ... look out. 20) Utah. This is what the longest regular season and bowl winning streaks get you? 21) Iowa. Ok they did beat Penn State, but really? 22) Kansas. Meh. 23) Nebraska. Sorry, don't believe you all anymore. 24) Notre Dame. I strongly agree with this spot. 25) Texas Tech. Lower then Oklahoma State why? Others: Pittsburgh, Miami(FL), Oregon State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, BYU, East Carolina, South Florida, Clemson, Michigan State, NC State, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Auburn, Boston College, Minnesota, Arkansas, Houston Big East: Before it is all said and done I think a Big East team will show up on the scene. To excel in the rankings a conference needs 3-4 teams who consistently beat the rest of the conference and a solid middle of the conference that win OOC games. The Big 12 and SEC fit this recently and we can see the results. The MWC does to, but without the solid middle and the results their are visible as well. The ACC and Big East have 6-8 teams that kill each other, only the Big East is not as good OOC. If you only have 1 or 2 contenders, like the PAC 10, and WAC, you are out of the race if your champion goes down. When it comes to parity in a conference you need to have a little, but not too much. My top 25: 1) Florida 2) Oklahoma 3) Texas 4) USC 5) Penn State 6) LSU 7) Texas Tech 8) Ohio State 9) TCU 10) Alabama 11) Virginia Tech 12) Utah 13) Ole Miss 14) Boise State 15) Georgia 16) California 17) Georgia Tech 18) Oregon 19) FSU 20) Maryland 21) Kansas 22) Oklahoma State 23) Notre Dame 24) West Virginia 25) BYU Ok, now for the real experts: