July 29, 2009

Who has the toughest football schedule in 2009?

College football guru Phil Steele has published his toughest schedules for 2009 in his annual College Football Preview.

Steele's methodology differs from the NCAA's own strength of schedule calculation in that it factors changes to the team for 2009. For example, Steele takes into account a variety of factors including number of starters returning per team, whereas the NCAA just looks at each team's record from 2008 and projects it into this coming season. The difference? historically, is that Steele's projections tend to be more accurate at this point in the season.

Without further ado....

PHIL STEELE'S 2009 TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKINGS

1. South Carolina 2. Florida St 3. Oklahoma 4. Mississippi St 5. Minnesota 6. Arkansas 7. Georgia 8. Virginia Tech 9. Tennessee 10. Michigan St

...

115. Ball St
116. Florida Atlantic
117. Boise St
118. Army
119. Ohio
120. Kent St

A couple of trends jump off the page right away:

First and foremost, the top ten is stacked with SEC East teams. Three big factors are at play here.
- The SEC returns an great percentage of starters almost across the board. There are a few key holes to fill, but no team is remotely close to starting from scratch.
- The SEC East scheduling in 2009 brings strong divisional matchups this season.
- And last but in no way least, the Florida Gators are hugely rated by Steele this season and six of the top ten teams have games scheduled against UF.

Secondly, if you're Boise State, you not only have to win every game but you need to play some scoreboard pinball in order to make into a BCS game. The Broncos aren't getting any help from their schedule this season.

Third, the WAC & MWC have broken the glass ceiling on the BCS, but don't expect the MAC to join the party any time soon. Seven of the ten weakest schedules are from the MAC. Ouch.

Finally, and this might be the most important item to remember, Phil Steele's rankings have been a good predictor but they don't factor into the BCS in any way. The BCS has its own strength of schedule component within the computer indexes.

Comments:

Who has the toughest football schedule in 2009?
College football guru Phil Steele has published his toughest schedules for 2009 in his annual College Football Preview. Steele's methodology differs from the NCAA's own strength of schedule calculation in that it factors changes to the team for 2009. For example, Steele takes into account a variety of factors including number of starters returning per team, whereas the NCAA just looks at each team's record from 2008 and projects it into this coming season. The difference? historically, is that Steele's projections tend to be more accurate at this point in the season. Without further ado....

PHIL STEELE'S 2009 TOUGHEST SCHEDULE RANKINGS

1. South Carolina 2. Florida St 3. Oklahoma 4. Mississippi St 5. Minnesota 6. Arkansas 7. Georgia 8. Virginia Tech 9. Tennessee 10. Michigan St ... 115. Ball St 116. Florida Atlantic 117. Boise St 118. Army 119. Ohio 120. Kent St A couple of trends jump off the page right away: First and foremost, the top ten is stacked with SEC East teams. Three big factors are at play here. - The SEC returns an great percentage of starters almost across the board. There are a few key holes to fill, but no team is remotely close to starting from scratch. - The SEC East scheduling in 2009 brings strong divisional matchups this season. - And last but in no way least, the Florida Gators are hugely rated by Steele this season and six of the top ten teams have games scheduled against UF. Secondly, if you're Boise State, you not only have to win every game but you need to play some scoreboard pinball in order to make into a BCS game. The Broncos aren't getting any help from their schedule this season. Third, the WAC & MWC have broken the glass ceiling on the BCS, but don't expect the MAC to join the party any time soon. Seven of the ten weakest schedules are from the MAC. Ouch. Finally, and this might be the most important item to remember, Phil Steele's rankings have been a good predictor but they don't factor into the BCS in any way. The BCS has its own strength of schedule component within the computer indexes.