January 6, 2006

The Nielsen National Championship

While Texas may have won the National Championship, the Wall Street Journal is looking at who is winning the Nielsen Championship. Surprisingly enough, it's the Oregon Ducks football team.

The WSJ looked at the TV viewership varied as different teams played in various bowl games. At least in theory, this shows that positive/negative viewership impact of inviting a given team. The entire report is available as a PDF, but here's the guts:

For schools that showed up at least five times in our sample, we compared the rating for each game they played against the average for that particular bowl. (Games that determined the national champion, such as this year’s Rose Bowl, were given their own average.) Rankings are based on ratings
differential—the percentage by which TV viewership differed from the average in the bowl games they played. Here is how the schools fared:

RANK/TEAM RATINGS DIFFERENTIAL # OF BOWL GAMES WIN/LOSS

1 Oregon +16.0% 6 3-3 Go Ducks? Go figure. Team reigns in a medium state without the best opponents.
2 Washington +10.6 9 3-6 All hail the Pacfic Northwest! Huskies have one low-rated game in 10 years.
3 Michigan +8.1 12 6-6 Huge alumni base + long tradition + strong opponents = a consistent winner
4 USC +6.7 5 4-1 The 1996 Rose Bowl (USC vs. Northwestern) had the highest rating in our study.
5 Texas A&M +6.4 6 1-5 Close games and good opponents have helped with ratings, but not wins.
6 Penn State +3.3 8 6-2 East coast’s most popular team draws a crowd even in down years.
7 Notre Dame +3.1 8 1-7 Seven bowl losses and five recent unranked seasons have held them back.
8 Ohio State +2.4 9 5-4 If not for two lousy Outback Bowls against South Carolina, they’d be topfiv e.
9 Florida +1.7 13 5-8 Florida State wins more, but Gators are the Florida team the nation watches.
10 Alabama +0.6 7 3-4 Bear Bryant would be proud: Great showing in last year’s Music City Bowl.
11 Wisconsin -2.3 8 5-3 Last two times Wisconsin played, Rose Bowl viewership was 13% up from norm.
12 Purdue -3.2 8 3-5 Boilermakers saved best for biggest game: +16% in the 2001 Rose Bowl.
13(t) Iowa -4.1 8 5-3 Two of last three Hawkeye bowls had ratings of at least 20% below average.
13(t) Clemson -4.1 6 1-5 Blame Syracuse? Clemson’s 1996 Gator Bowl against them was a ratings flop.
15 Florida State -4.3 13 8-5 Seminoles may not live down the ’93 Orange Bowl. Ratings were 67% below norm.
16 Ole Miss -4.7 5 4-1 Small sample here, but ho-hum opponents may be holding them back.
17 Auburn -6.3 8 5-3 Last year’s Sugar Bowl flopwas a blow to their ratings reputation.
18(t) Texas -7.1 9 4-5 Could the Longhorns keepthis year’s Rose Bowl from setting a ratings record?
18(t) Miami -7.1 10 6-4 Ranked in the AP top20 every year since 1998—but nation isn’t watching.
18(t) Oklahoma -7.1 6 3-3 Five years ranked No. 6 or better hasn’t helped the Sooners push ratings.
18(t) Colorado -7.1 7 4-3 Double jeopardy: Nation isn’t watching, and Colorado fans don't travel well, either.
22 Nebraska -8.5 13 7-6 Not bad for the 38th largest state. Fans travel so well, ratings don't matter.
23 Georgia -9.0 8 6-2 Three games settled by three points or less didn’t seem to boost ratings.
24 Tennessee -9.4 12 5-7 Ratings for ’98 title game were 10% above norm; five others were off by 20%.
25 Arkansas -9.6 5 2-3 All five Arkansas games have fallen below the ratings average.
26 Kansas State -11.7 8 6-2 Wildcats were part of a 1995 Holiday Bowl, with ratings 44% below average.
27 LSU -12.5 8 6-2 Tigers’ 2004 national title game was down 11%; last year's Citrus Bowl, down 25%.
28 Virginia Tech -13.2 8 3-5 Subtract the Michael Vick years and the Hokies are even lower.
29 West Virginia -17.4 5 1-4 String of soft opponents make this better than it looks.
30 Syracuse -21.1 6 4-2 Bad opponents and schedule quirks deserve some blame. But not much.

Posted by Kevin Donahue