But... the past is the past. THIS time, I think I got it right. (And I don't have any teams playing in more than one bowl!)

So... without further ado... my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 22, 2008.

Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule

BCS National Championship Game - Florida vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs USC
Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs Penn State
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs Utah
Orange Bowl - Boston College vs Cincinnati

New Mexico - Colorado State vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg - Rutgers vs. Memphis
Las Vegas - BYU vs. Arizona
EagleBank - Clemson vs Navy
New Orleans - Southern Miss vs Troy
Poinsettia - TCU vs Fresno State*
Hawaii - Hawaii vs Western Michigan*
Motor City - Ball State vs Minnesota
Meineke Car Care - UNC vs West Virginia
Champs Sports - Miami vs Iowa
Emerald - Maryland vs San Jose State*
Independence - LaTech* vs U La-La*
Papajohns.com - Pitt vs Arkansas State*
Alamo - Northwestern vs Oklahoma State
Humanitarian - Boise State vs Wake Forest
Texas - Northern Illinois* vs Rice
Holiday - Cal vs Missouri
Armed Forces - Air Force vs Tulsa
Sun - Oregon vs Notre Dame**
Music City - Kentucky vs VaTech
Insight - Wisconsin vs Kansas
Peach/Chick-fil-A - LSU vs Georgia Tech
Outback - Michigan State vs South Carolina
Capital One - Ohio State vs Georgia
Gator - Florida State vs Nebraska
Cotton - Texas Tech vs Ole Miss
Liberty - Houston vs Vandy
International - UConn vs Buffalo
GMAC - ECU vs Central Michigan

* At large teams shown with asterisk when partner conference aren't projected to have enough eligible teams.
** Yeah, I know. I said ND was a lock for the Gator. They suck and so do I.

The full list of college football bowl games is online.

So... without further ado... my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 8, 2008.

Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule

New Mexico Bowl - San Jose State vs Colorado State

St. Petersburg Bowl - South Florida vs Houston

Pioneer Las Vegas - TCU vs Oregon

Eagle Bank Bowl - Virginia vs Navy

R+L Carriers New Orleans - Memphis vs Troy

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia - BYU vs Nevada

Sheraton Hawaii - Hawaii vs Stanford

Motor City - Central Michigan vs Illinois

Meineke Car Care - Cincinnati vs Maryland

Champs Sports - Virginia Tech vs Wisconsin

Emerald - Arizona vs Miami

Independence - Akron vs Florida International

PapaJohns.com - West Virginia vs. Florida Atlantic

Valero Alamo - Minnesota vs. Oklahoma State

Roady's Humanitarian - Boise State vs Boston College

Texas - Rutgers vs. Louisiana Tech

Pacific Life Holiday - Cal vs. Missouri

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces - Air Force vs Rice

Brut Sun - Oregon State vs. Nebraska

Gaylord Hotels Music City - Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky

Insight - Kansas vs. Northwestern

Chick-fil-A - Ole Miss vs North Carolina

Outback - Iowa vs South Carolina

Capital One - Georgia vs. Michigan State

Konica Minolta Gator - Wake Forest vs Notre Dame

AT&T Cotton - Oklahoma vs LSU

AutoZone Liberty - Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt

International - Connecticut vs. Western Michigan

GMAC - East Carolina vs. Ball State

Rose Bowl - Penn State vs. USC

FedEx Orange - Florida State vs. Utah

Allstate Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh

Tostitos Fiesta - Texas vs. Ohio State

BCS National Championship Game - Texas Tech vs. Florida

Bowl Eligible Teams through 11-8-2008

ACC - 8 teams eligible
FSU, Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech

Big 12 - 7 teams eligible
Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big East - 5 teams eligible
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, South Florida

Big 10 -6 teams eligible
Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa

Conference USA - 3 teams eligible
East Carolina, Tulsa, Rice

Independents - 1 team eligible
Navy

MAC - 3 teams eligible
Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan

MWC - 4 teams eligible
BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force

Pac10 - 5 teams eligible
USC, Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State

SEC - 6 teams eligible
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, LSU

Sun Belt - 1 team eligible
Troy

WAC - 2 teams eligible
Boise State, San Jose State

For a complete list of bowl game matchups by conference, dates, times, and television coverage, check our 2008 bowl game schedule.

The Graduation Success Rate measures how many players earned a four-year degree within a six-year window, accounting for both transfers into the footabll program as well as transfers out of the football program.

So how do the BCS schools stack up against one another? I'm glad you asked.

2008 NCAA Graduation Success Rate for BCS Football Programs

1. Notre Dame 94%
2. Stanford 93
T3. BC 92
T3. Duke 92
T3. Northwestern 92
6. Vanderbilt 91
7. Wake Forest 83
8. Texas Tech 79
T9. Baylor 78
T9. Nebraska 78
T9. UNC 78
T9. Penn State 78
T13. UConn 77
T13. Indiana 77
T15. Colorado 75
T15. Iowa 75
T15. Syracuse 75
T15. Virginia Tech 75
19. Cincinnati 73
T20. Illinois 70
T20. Michigan 70
T20. Miami 70
T20. Rutgers 70
24. Florida State 69
T25. Clemson 68
T25. Florida 68
T25. Maryland 68
T25. Wash State 68
.........................................
T29. Kansas State 67
T29. Pitt 67
31. Virginia 66
T32. South Carolina 65
T32. Washington 65
T34. Oregon State 64
T34. Ole Miss 63
T34. Miss State 63
T34. Purdue 63
T34. West Virginia 63
T34. Wisconsin 63
T40. Okla State 62
T40. UCLA 62
42. Arizona State 60
T43. N.C. State 59
T43. Missouri 59
45. Louisville 58
46. Auburn 57
T47. Kentucky 56
T47. Texas A&M 56
T47. South Florida 56
T50. Alabama 55
T50. Iowa State 55
T52. LSU 54
T52. Tennessee 54
T52. USC 54
T55. Cal 53
T55. Oregon 53
T55. Kansas 53
58. Ohio State 52
T58. Arkansas 52
T60. Minnesota 51
T60. Michigan State 51
62. Texas 50
T63. Georgia 48
T63. Georgia Tech 48
65. Oklahoma 46
66. Arizona 41

I wasn't surprised to see some of the finest academic institutions grabbing the top spots, but I was SHOCKED to see Texas Tech at #8. Kudos to the Red Raiders!

The average GSR scores of the six BCS conferences:

1. ACC........72.3
2. Big East...67.4
3. Big Ten....66
4. Big 12.....63.2
5. Pac-10.....61.3
6. SEC.........60.5

For all the blustering about the Pac10's high academic standards, I would have expected one of those standards to be.... graduation.

The following are updated through October 27, 2008:

1 BIG 12 (78.18)
2 BIG TEN (77.24)
3 ATLANTIC COAST (76.97)
4 SOUTHEASTERN (76.54)
5 PAC-10 (74.33)
6 BIG EAST (73.44)
7 MOUNTAIN WEST (70.27)
8 I-A INDEPENDENTS (67.33)
9 WESTERN ATHLETIC (65.57)
10 MID-AMERICAN (65.18)
11 CONFERENCE USA (63.31)
12 SUN BELT (61.11)

A find a couple facets of the current rankings rather fascinating:

- The SEC is the fourth best conference, top-to-bottom? Seriously? The SEC is 20-7 out-of-conference against DI-A teams this year. Granted, three of those seven losses are to the ACC, but... the ACC returned the favor in losing three to the SEC. Sagarin has three SEC teams in his top ten, but the ACC gets the slight nod when you contrast the middle and bottom of each conference, which makes sense when you consider that there are... like... forty-seven teams tied for first in the ACC.

- Is another non-BCS blowout in the offing? Cinderella teams from the WAC (Boise State), Mountain West (Utah, TCU), MAC (Ball State), and C-USA (Tulsa) are all looking to qualify into a BCS bowl this year. Sagarin's ratings would seem to indicate that their resumes might be lacking if and when they get to the big stage.

- The BCS conferences are head-and-shoulders above the non-BCS conferences. The separation between the Big East and Mountain West is statically significant, and I don't think we've seen any rankings that dispute that designation in the last four years.

Are the Fighting Irish BCS-bound?

North Carolina will finish no worse than 9-3.

Has the Pac10 missed the boat on expansion?

Arizona (ARIZONA?!?!?!?!) sits atop the Pac10, but the real test lies ahead.

The Razorbacks lack the heart they had when HDN was on the sidelines.

Georgia had better be ready for Tennessee.

Your next SEC East Champs? Vandy.

Where does Auburn turn now that they have lost to Vandy? Maybe it's time for a trip to Cracker Barrel.

The Heisman may come down to an Oklahoma - Missouri matchup. (And if it does, put me in the Bradford camp.)

It's Texas - OU week, and both teams are ranked in the top five. Historically, that has not been a good sign for the Longhorns.

Rumors are spreading at Penn State after JoPa spent another game in the press box and appeared to have trouble with his balance in his press conference. Showing up in unmatched shoes didn't help his case, either.

FSU has three sophomores and two true freshman starting on the offensive line - and they won the game for the Noles against Miami.

Finally, Army no longer holds the nation's longest losing streak.

10. Rich Brooks, Kentucky 9. Urban Meyer, Florida 8. Bob Stoops, Oklahoma 7. Mike Stoops, Arizona 6. Nick Saban, Alabama 5. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State 4. Tommy Tuberville, Auburn 3. Les Miles, LSU 2. Rich Rodriguez, Michigan 1. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina

Anyone see a pattern in this list? Yeah... me neither.

But three letters make this a code blue, five-alarm red flag alert: USC could miss the BCS title game.

Stunningly, though, only one week after USC's dominating performance against Ohio State left the Trojans as overwhelming favorites to get to the national title game, the watchwords in coming weeks might be: Watch out.

Watch out for the Big 12 and Southeastern conferences.

Watch out for Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana State and maybe Alabama.

Dufresne correctly notes that USC basically has "pinatas" left on its schedule. For the first time in recent years, the Trojans do not have an AP top-25 team left on their schedule. Meanwhile, the SEC and Big XII are heavily represented in both polls.

In 2004, USC, Oklahoma and the SEC champion all finished unbeaten and the SEC champion was left out.

You're nuts to think that's going to happen again.

Good as it looks, there is no guarantee that going 12-0 is going to get USC to the BCS title game.

Georgia, at 13-0, could not possibly be denied, nor could any other 13-0 SEC champion.

I suspect there are some SEC fans that wouldn't shed a tear if undefeated Big XII and SEC champs played for the crystal trophy while a 13-0 Southern Cal was relegated to the Rose Bowl, no?

The results were determined by evaluating each team's regular-season, nonconference schedule against BCS opponents from the time the BCS was formed (1998) through 2007. Since teams don't get to chose their bowl opponents, those games are excluded.

1. Florida State 70.3%

No. of nonconf. gms.	Rec. vs. BCS	Rec. vs. I-A non-BCS	Rec. vs. I-AA	Pct. of gms. vs. BCS
37	16-10 (.615)	9-1 (.900)	1-0 (1.000)	.703

The Seminoles have begun playing softer nonconference schedules in recent seasons, including -- gasp! -- Division I-AA Citadel in 2005. Nevertheless, over the past decade, no other program has been willing to play the big boys more often out of conference. Of course, Florida State's annual matchup against Miami became conference fare when the Hurricanes joined the ACC in 2004. Notably, FSU is 5-5 in its past 10 meetings with rival Florida, but 0-4 since 2004. We wonder whether Bobby Bowden's crew, coming off back-to-back 7-6 seasons, will continue to scale back schedule difficulty in the coming years. The Seminoles will play more I-AA teams (two) in 2008 than they did in the previous 12 years combined (one).

2. USC 64.9%
3. Georgia Tech 57.1%

< Click here for teams 4-8 >

9. Clemson , Duke , Penn State , Stanford , Syracuse , Virginia 50%

No surprise at the top, really. FSU lived the "any one, anywhere, any time" mantra for the better part of the last two decades.

What is surprising to me is just how dominant the ACC is in the list. Of the top 14 teams, 7 are from the ACC. The Big10 and Pac10 both check in with three teams each. The Big East checks in with one team. How many from the SEC? Try zero. How many from the Big 12? Nada. What's up with that? Look I'm not saying the ACC is better - it clearly isn't this year and hasn't been for several seasons.

But... when it comes to strapping it on against anybody, the ACC leads the pack.

The Indy Star contacted FBS schools in an attempt to determine what percentage of football players (and scholarship atheletes, in general) were admitted despite falling below a university's minimum academic standards.

The results? Shocking.

At Cal, 95% of the football players admitted during the 2004-2005 year were special admissions. Georgia ('99-'00) and Texas A&M ('04-'05) both had 94% special admissions. On the opposite end of the spectrum, sixteen of the fifty-five responding schools -- including several of the nation's elite football schools -- did not have any special admits at all (Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Purdue, Texas Tech, Connecticut, Minnesota, Texas, Colorado, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia, Ohio State).

Here's a rundown of the schools with special admits that did comply with the request:

Alabama - 21%
Arizona - 33%
Auburn - 12%
Cal - 95%
Floirda - 18%
Florida State - 65%
Georgia - 94%
Georgia Tech - 9%
Indiana - 42%
Iowa - 41%
Iowa State - 21%
Kentucky - 64%
LSU - 82%
Louisville - 38%
Missouri - 61%
NC State - 25%
Oklahoma - 81%
Texas A&M - 94%
Washington - 48%
Washington State - 60%
West Virginia - 23%

Schools with zero special admissions reported in the football department:
Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Purdue, Texas Tech, Connecticut, Minnesota, Texas, Colorado, Kansas State, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Illinois, Michigan, Virginia, Ohio State

I'm impressed that some of the higher ranked academic schools aren't taking any special admits. That's impressive. Then again, there's a time and place for special admits. All, college is about lifting people up right? I don't know where you draw the line, but 95% special admits is insane.

The most recent update finds Clemson coach Tommy Bowden vaulting to the top of the Hot Seat Rankings, on the strength (or lack thereof) of his team's performance against Alabama. While I'm not sure that TB is wearing the hottest pants in the nation, Joe goes on to explain the ranking in his blog:

Anything less than 8 wins by Tommy Bowden in 2008, and the Tommy Bowden era is OVER at Clemson. Tommy Bowden is not only coaching for his job, but if he does not get to 8 wins in 2008, Clemson AD Terry Don Phillips will find himself out of a job as well. Let’s just be very clear about the Alabama game: Alabama came out and smashed Clemson in the mouth, and the Clemson players QUIT on Tommy Bowden. This is not the first time the Clemson players have QUIT on Tommy Bowden, and it will not be the last. Bowden entered the game against Alabama with four times the talent and four times the experience of the Tide, and the Tigers got their ass handed to them. For some reason, Tommy Bowden believes that he can continue to put mediocre and underperforming teams onto the field at Clemson and keep his job, but make no doubt about it, Tommy Bowden is now fighting for his coaching career.

Again, I don't know if I would go *that far*, but... then again, if Bowden doesn't post eight wins, then... yeah, he's going out on a rail. All we've heard this season is that this squad is the most talented in epic annals of Tiger football history. If Bowden can't win eight games, then bye-bye. I get that. I'm just not sure that it qualifies him as the #1 target of the college coaching axe.

The rest of the Coaches Hot Seat top ten:

2. Mike Sherman, Texas A&M
3. Ty Willingham, Washington
4. Dave Wannstedt, Pittsburgh
5. Greg Robinson, Syracuse
6. Chuck Long, San Diego State
7. Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville
8. Phil Fulmer, Tennessee
9. Al Groh, Virginia
10. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa

Again, I'm not 100% sure I agree with the list. For example, I think Joe Glenn's days at Wyoming are numbered despite the Cowboys win over Ohio.

Whereas I do not believe that Fulmer can do anything at all to lose his job this year, even if the Vols lose another four or five games this season. Fulmer is - in my opinion - safe this season, as evidenced by his recent contract extension.

I'm still not convinced that Steve Kragthorpe has anything to worry about at Lousiville, either. Yes... his team had more turnovers than points, but the UofL AD made a pretty strong case that Kragthorpe was left a mostly bare cupboard of rotting and/or expired goods. While Petrino contends otherwise, at least Kragthorpe has his AD -- who himself is safe by virtue of the rest of the school's athletics and revenues - in his corner. Kragthorpe rebuilt Tulsa from nothing to three bowls in a state where Golden Hurricane football is *at least* third fiddle, so if there was ever a guy you would want to inherit a bare cupboard....

Meanwhile... way down at #29... is our friend Cheeseburger Charlie Weis. Seriously?! #29?! Dude? Dude. Dude!

Finally, I think the Tim Brewster experiment might be on its last refrains, especially after the attention given to the academic failings of his recruits and the prospect of filling a new stadium in 2009. After all, what's going to fill the seats - a .500 team with Brewster or a hot new coach? It's a rhetorical question, but you're free to answer as you will.

Check out the Coaches Hot Seat for the full rundown.

Surprise #1? Ten of the top 14 travel distances belong to BCS teams.
Surprise #2? Nineteen of the bottom 22 are BCS teams.

Note: These are DRIVING DISTANCES, so Hawaii is not included.
Note: Because there is no bridge to Hawaii. Seriously.

Which college football teams travel the most miles for games in 2008?

1. Fresno State 18,190 miles
2. UTEP 15,016
3. Florida International 14,692
4. Florida Atlantic 14,534
5. Louisiana Tech 13,648
6. Notre Dame 13,348
7. Oregon State 13,278
8. San Diego State 13,134
9. Stanford 12,984
10. Idaho 12,798

Again, no big surprise that the most geographically diverse conferences are leading the top spots. After all, the longest roundtrip for a WAC conference game is 4,348 miles. (Idaho at Louisiana Tech)

The one standout is Notre Dame. The Irish go from sea to shining sea with games at Washington, at Boston College, and at USC.

I know what you're thinking and the answer is YES - college football players can accrue frequent flier miles for their travel. (NCAA Bylaws § 16.12.1.11(b))

Which college football teams travel the fewest miles for games in 2008?

110. Virginia 3,060 miles
111. Nebraska 3,050
112. Mississippi State 3,036
113. Indiana 3,018
114. Duke 2,922
115. Miami (Ohio) 2,874
116. Central Michigan 2,599
117. Ball State 2,464
118. Purdue 2,280
119. N.C. State 1,734

Again, it's not that shocking that the least geographically diverse conferences primarily make up the bottom of the list. The Pack play two games (@ UNC and @ Duke) where the total roundtrip is less than 100 miles... combined! I don't know that it's right to "criticize" the Wolfpack for After all, NC State was ranked as the #60 most difficult pre-season schedule. The fact that they never cross more than one state line when traveling... bonus.

Which BCS teams lead their conference in miles traveled for games in 2008?

Pac10 - Oregon State (7th) 13,278
ACC - Miami (21st) 9,952
Big XII - Colorado (22nd) 9,166
Big East - South Florida (42nd) 7,462
Big 10 - Ohio State (46th) 7,364
SEC - Georgia (47th) 7,264

Check out the whole thing over at Rivals. There's some interesting details on the longest & shortest road trips as well as the complete list of how many miles each team travels this year.

I'm basing my list simply on perceived stature, which I believe is generally more static than factors such as current roster, current salary, and other more dynamic factors.

The Top College Football Coaching Jobs

1. Notre Dame - The most visible head coaching job in the country, with (arguably) the top legacy and traditions in all of college football.

2. Texas

3. Michigan

4. Ohio State

5. Oklahoma

6. USC

7. Nebraska

8. Alabama

9. Florida

10. Georgia

11. Florida State

12. Miami

13. UCLA

14. Penn State

15. Tennessee

16. Texas A&M

17. LSU

18. Iowa

19. Wisconsin

20. Colorado

Just outside the top twenty (alphabetical): Arizona State, Auburn, BYU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Missouri, Ole Miss, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Washington, WVU

Not that you need an invitation, but... tell me where I'm wrong.

Playboy 2008 College Football Preseason Poll
Predicted finish in parenthesis

1. Oklahoma (12-0)
2. Ohio State (11-1)
3. Florida (11-1)
4. Missouri (11-1)
5. USC (11-1)
6. Georgia (10-2)
7. West Virginia (10-2)
8. LSU (9-3)
9. Auburn (9-3)
10. Kansas (9-3)
11. Texas Tech (9-3)
12. Arizona State (9-3)
13. Texas (9-3)
14. Wisconsin (9-3)
15. Clemson (9-3)
16. Utah (9-3)
17. Cincinnati (9-4)
18. Virginia Tech (8-4)
19. Arkansas (8-4)
20. Boise State (9-3)
21. Illinois (8-4)
22. Kansas State (8-4)
23. Tennessee (8-4)
24. Oregon State (8-4)
25. Georgia Tech (8-4)
26. BYU (10-2)
27. Arizona (8-4)
28. California (8-4)
29. Rutgers (8-5)
30. Central Florida (8-4)
31. Michigan (7-5)
32. Penn State (7-5)
33. Nebraska (7-5)
34. Oklahoma State (7-5)
35. Colorado (7-5)
36. Purdue (7-5)
37. Connecticut (7-5)
38. Louisville (7-5)
39. Oregon (7-5)
40. Alabama (7-5)
41. Mississippi State (7-5)
42. South Carolina (7-5)
43. Florida State (7-5)
44. UCLA (7-5)
45. Boston College (7-5)
46. Texas A&M (7-5)
47. Miami (7-5)
48. Virginia (7-5)
49. Notre Dame (7-5)
50. New Mexico (7-5)

In honor of Playboys presumptive champion, Oklahoma, we proudly link to Playboy's Oklahoma Sooners model (NSFW) in Playboy's Girls of the Big 12 college pictorial edition (~very~ NSFW).

While the study takes all recruiting into account (not just college football) it's interesting to contrast who spent what on how successful their efforts are percieved to have been by contrasting them to the Rivals.com college football team recruiting rankings.

College Recruiting Expenses vs. College Football Recruiting Rankings

A few other notables from the top-twenty in spending:

Texas - $1,156,800
Oklahoma - $1,120,800
Georgia Tech - $1,111,900
West Virginia - $1,094,200

Here's a few interesting takeaways from the report:

- Recruiting budgets at the top-twenty spenders repesents just 1-3% of the athletic departments budget.
- 21 schools spent more than $1 million on recruiting.
- USF had the lowest spend among BCS schools at less than $500,000.
- Louisiana-Monroe spent the least in DI-A - $134,300.
- Of the BCS conferences, the SEC spends the most on recruiting ($13,129,700) while the Big East spent the least ($6,125,700).

The complete list of spending by school is online... enjoy.