August 12, 2003

2003 SEC West Preview

Alabama: (10-3 / 6-2 SEC)
Alabama was one of the most impressive, and surprising, teams in the SEC last year. They played a dominant Oklahoma team close, and Georgia even closer. Unfortunately, the recent coaching struggles, not lack of talent, have kept Alabama from being one of the premiere teams in the nation. Coach Don Shula will need a season or two to mature.

This season, however, doesn't look too shabby. Alabama is returning talent by droves, Playboy All-American Justin Smiley, RB Shaud Williams, and Brodie Croyle (who will flourish under Shula's pass-centric offense) will power the offense, Sophomore linebacker Freddie Roach and Junior DE Antwan Odom (if he can get healthy) will make some huge contributions on defense. Look for Sophomore cornerback Charlie Peprah to bolster a relatively weak Alabama secondary.

With Coach Fran still at the helm, the Tide wins 12 games, losing only to Oklahoma. In Shula's first year, however, add losses 'Tween the Hedges at Georgia and at home to Tennessee. Ole Miss could sneak up on the Tide, but expect a win in Oxford. As is recent tradition in the heated Alabama-Auburn rivalry, the underdog (Alabama) will win on the road.

Arkansas: (7-5 / 4-4 SEC)
The Razorbacks return an outstanding running Quarterback in Matt Jones, and two excellent Linebackers in Tony Bua and Caleb Miller. They had a strong season, finishing second in the SEC West (but playing Georgia in the conference championship due to Alabama's Bowl Ban) but faded late in the season, losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship and Minnesota in Music City Bowl.

Arkansas, as they have in years past, is going to have a hard time establishing the passing game, and their defensive secondary is really going to need to make some big plays.

Arkansas has a brutal first six games, facing Texas, Alabama, Auburn, and Florida. The season is going to start out rocky with loses to those four teams, but Coach Nutt and the boys will straighten things out and take 4 of their last 5 (dropping the game against Ole Miss and the season finale to LSU).

Auburn: (11-1 / 7-1 SEC)
Pre-season Top 10 in the polls, #1 as ranked by the Sporting News, and with the personnel to back it up. Karlos Dansby and Carnell Williams are big, strong, fast, and GOOD. So what's standing between the Tigers and a National Championship? It's a combination of coaching and scheduling.

Tommy Tuberville is no Steve Spurrier, he's no Joe Paterno, he's no Chuck Amato. He's a "Riverboat Gambler" and his antics are going to get the Tigers into a few more jams this season than their talent can get them out of. A wicked schedule compounds that problem, giving the potential for Auburn to lose their first and/or last two games. The last time Auburn started the year ranked #1 (1984) they dropped their first two games, and there's potential for that this year. Southern Cal and Georgia Tech aren't push-overs, but Auburn will open 10-0 including wins in Fayetteville, AR and Baton Rouge, LA. They won't get out of their last two conference games (Georgia and Alabama) unscathed, though. One of those two teams will crush their title hopes. It could be either, but the fiercest rivalry in college football all but negates Auburn's apparent skill advantage -- the tide will rain on Auburn's parade.

LSU: (9-3 / 5-3 SEC)
LSU will face, and beat, a lot of great teams this season. Nick Saban's squad has folks like Junior Wideout Michael Clayton, Cornerbacks Corey Webster and Randall Gay, Offensive linemen Stephen Peterman and Ben Wilkerson, and of course Quarterback Matt Mauck. The Tigers' hole, however, is at runningback where they'll ask Sophomore Joseph Addai to fill in a gap left by Domanick Davis and LaBrandon Toefield.

LSU's first loss of the season will come against Florida in Early October. They'll face Auburn (and lose) the week after that. Louisiana Tech will provide a bit of a breather before a loss in Bryant-Denny Stadium at Alabama, but the Tigers will finish on a high note knocking off Ole Miss and Arkansas.

It will take a bit of luck for LSU to finish better than Second in the West but it is possible if Auburn gets too wrapped up in their own hype. LSU has the talent this year to be a major contender, though, and the recruiting classes to stay there for several years to come.

Ole Miss (8-4 / 4-4 SEC)
It's been said, and I agree, that you can't count the Rebels out of a game with Eli Manning under center. Nevertheless, Ole Miss will be the disappointment of the SEC this year, underperforming for their talent. They don't have a lot of names, but but a solid kicking game coupled with a surprisingly good receivers and defensive front will give some top teams a run. Their over-all lack of experience will cost them the games in the long-run, however.

Alabama will hand Ole Miss their first loss of the season after the Rebels get a surprising win over Florida. South Carolina will be a surprise loss, followed by two more dropped games: one at Auburn and one at home against LSU. A little redemption, however, will come on Thanksgiving Day when they drop Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

Mississippi State (5-7 / 2-6 SEC)
Not much to say about this one. Jackie Sherrill dropped five Assistant Coaches in the off-season, and their personnel problems will exacerbate that problem and you can expect the Bulldogs to end with a losing record again. Good seasons and winning records are probably still a year or two off, but there is some potential to break even if they can get some key victories at home against LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss. It will probably be another long season in Starkville.

Projected Final Divisional Standings for 2003
Auburn (7-1)
Alabama (6-2)
LSU (5-3)
Arkansas (4-4)
Ole Miss (4-4)
Miss State (2-6)

Auburn will drop the SEC Championship game to Georgia.

(See the 2003 SEC West Preview)

Editor's Note: Updated to fix discrepancies between picks.

Posted by Pete Holiday

 

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Comments & Trackbacks

1. Bob says:

   posted on August 16, 2003 04:01 PM — link

   His name is Mike, NOT Don Shula. Alabama lost too much and has too many changes to be that good, Ole Miss has the BEST set of WR's in the SEC, Arkansas cannot be THAT lucky again, and MSU's problem was not personnel last year as much a coaching. Other than that I totally agree.

2. Pete Holiday says:

   posted on August 16, 2003 04:41 PM — link

   Let's look at Alabama's losses, since we're on the topic. Alabama hasn't lost as much as some people think. Brodie Croyle is a better quarterback than they've had in years -- replacing Watts with Croyle isn't a loss, it's a gain. Then you have Galloway and Beard at Tailback, being replaced by a VERY capable and proven Shaud Williams. AC Carter is back and Dre Fulgham hit his stride toward the end of last season to fill Sam Collins' shoes. 'Bama lost a Center, Guard, and Tackle on the O-line, but I don't think the O-Line is even a point of concern right now with Smiley and Britt in there.

   On defense, the Line is still solid despite the loss of Moorehead, Johnson, and King. Bacon, Bolden, and Dixon in the backfield won't be too tough to replace, although the secondary is still a weak point.

   What's more, the changes aren't as big as you might think. To quote Wesley Britt from a recent interview: "Really, we're doing a lot of the same things that we did under Coach Price and things that we did under Coach Fran. We're even doing some things that we did under Coach DuBose. It's almost like a combination of all of those offenses. It's not been very hard to pick up at all."

   I agree about Arkansas -- there were some places I forgot to edit when I went through and made my final round of changes, most of which involved Ole Miss after doing a little more research.

   As far as Miss State is concerned, Coaching was definitely a problem, but Sherrill didn't have much to work with either. State would have won more than three games if they had talent OR coaching.