October 01, 2003

Battle for the Bottom: Vandy vs. Miss State

Spirits are sinking (have sunk?) at Mississippi State -- a photo that appeared in The Reflector Tuesday (Sept. 30) pictured one fan amongst a litany of empty bleacher seats and implied that he was the only fan left in the student section of the stadium in the fourth quarter. (picture || article)

But when Vanderbilt comes to town, a streak is sure to end. Mississippi State has lost their last nine conference games, while the Commodores come in hoping to end a 19-game conference losing streak. This game will likely be a battle for the basement in the SEC, and has serious implications to almost nobody.

One thing to consider, however, is that Vanderbilt is consistently non-competitive in the SEC, while the Bulldogs seem to see some good years now and again. That means that Vandy's morale is probably not quite as low as Mississippi State's. That said, this is not the result of an 0-4 start -- a September 5th article in The Reflector (Fans Lack Loyalty) demonstrates that after two 3-win seasons, fans just can't bring themselves to stay for the whole game... some of them can hardly stand staying until the second quarter.

That said, I'm not sure what's worse -- the apathy of those who've stopped caring, or the pessimism of those who haven't. Four seasons ago, MSU's stifling defense helped them to an 8-0 start, and a spot in the top 10 -- we've seen in college football time and again that, given a few years, a team can make huge strides or can crumble.

The morale will play a big factor Saturday -- maybe more than talent and coaching -- Mississippi State hosts Vandy, and while you don't hear this said often in conference play, I think the Commodores have the edge. You can expect Vanderbilt to get their second win of the year, and extend Mississippi State's conference winless streak to 10 games.

Posted by Pete Holiday

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Comments & Trackbacks

1. From Signifying Nothing

   pinged on Oct 1, 2003 2:32 PM

   Pete Holiday at the SEC Fanblog takes a look at this Saturday’s matchup between Vanderbilt and Mississippi State in Starkville. One SEC losing streak has...

2. Randy H. says:

   posted on October 1, 2003 04:29 PM — link

   I say MSU takes it. Here is my rationale. Vandy is not very balanced offensively. They average a little over 200 yards passing per game, but only 150 yards rushing. They're not strong. Although MSU has a weak pass defense, I think they'll be stronger upfront than Vandy and will have a successful pass rush. If that's the case, then MSU can get enough defense to win. In the first three games of the year, they had plenty of offense to win. Just no defense.

   Here's to Vandy and 11 this year! :) (if not better)

3. Pete Holiday says:

   posted on October 1, 2003 05:11 PM — link

   I'll be interested to see if MSU can come up with this defense of which you speak! If so, it'll make for a more interesting game -- So far, however, MSU is giving up over 160 yards on the ground per game and over 300 through the air. This not to mention 8 interceptions in only four games.

   The first quarter will be crucial, though -- MSU has been out scored 56-0 in the first so far this year. It'll be a train-wreck of a game, but might be worth watching, in a morbid sort of way.

4. Chris Lawrence says:

   posted on October 1, 2003 05:30 PM — link

   200/150 isn't too bad for pass/rush balance. I mean, it's not what you'd expect from Arkansas or Alabama, but it is somewhat respectable.

   I think the outcome is largely a function of which Vandy team shows up: the one that plays to win (i.e. the one that Ole Miss faces every year) or the one that's convinced of their own inferiority, even though they're really not that bad a team (i.e. the one the rest of the SEC plays every year). My gut feeling is that Vandy's going to be in the former mindset rather than the latter.

   (BTW this game is the only one that, according to the bookmakers, the SEC West should win.)

5. Pete Holiday says:

   posted on October 1, 2003 08:02 PM — link

   Honestly, I think that's how MOST of the SEC feels about Vandy -- "They play US hard every year, but lay down for everyone else!" I know around 'Bama people feel like Vandy puts up an extra good fight for us.

   I'll be interested to see if MSU beats Ole Miss. By all rights they shouldn't, but rivalries seem to benefit "shouldn't" more than "should."

6. Chris Lawrence says:

   posted on October 1, 2003 09:13 PM — link

   I think the home team has won the last 3 or 4 in the State-Ole Miss rivalry. That includes the 2001 season where State went 3-8 and 7-4 Ole Miss was passed over for a bowl in favor of 6-5 Arkansas. So it wouldn't surprise me to see State win the game in Starkville, even if they go 0-11 on the way there.

7. Kevin says:

   posted on October 1, 2003 09:21 PM — link

   For my money, give me Vandy. (Hmmm! I just might have to do that!)

   I think MSU lacks the talent on both sides to beat Vandy. Sit and think about that one for a while. Kinda makes you dizzy.

8. Randy H. says:

   posted on October 2, 2003 09:39 AM — link

   Kevin, admittedly MSU is mediocre or poor in some areas. But I think their offense is talented enough to win in the SEC. The defense is the problem, and really the secondary is the the major part of that. To say that MSU lacks the talent offensively to beat Vandy just isn't realistic in my opinion.

   Having said that, I think MSU only beats Vandy if the defense plays better than they've played in the last two games. The Tulane game was the best performance so far- they'll need that again. Also, to echo Pete's earlier point, MSU has to win the first quarter.

9. Randy H. says:

   posted on October 5, 2003 12:11 AM — link

   30-21, MSU.

   The difference came down to three elements- a solid running game for MSU (Norwoood/Turner combined for 200+ yards), reasonable performance by the defense, and a solid 1st quarter performance (14-0 lead).

   MSU is still not a "good" team, but with this win under their belts I'd guess that they'll be good for one or two more easily. Look for MSU to win two out of three against Memphis, Alabama and Ole Miss later this season.