November 10, 2003
How Shula can Save the Season
No doubt, it's been a rough season for Mike Shula and the Crimson Tide. Oklahoma turned the momentum to win the game with a fake punt. Arkansas pulled off a win in Tuscaloosa in two overtimes. Tennessee took five. Couple that with a loss to Northern Illinois, and spankings by Georgia and Ole Miss, it has not been a great season for Alabama.
When Shula says that this is a new season, however, he's demonstrating tremendous background knowledge of Alabama and it's fans. Truth be told, many (all?) fans will consider this season a resounding success if the Tide can do two things:
1. Ruin LSU's chances for an SEC and BCS title.
2. Keep Auburn from being bowl elligible.
In short, by playing the spoiler in the SEC. This won't, by any stretch of the imagination, be easy. LSU brings a lot of momentum and confidence into the game this weekend, and Auburn could very easily show up to play in a few weeks.
LSU, however, is in a place that they haven't been in years -- contending for a national title. Sure, they need some help, but it's not completely absurd... if USC picks up a loss and LSU wins out through the SEC championship, they could easily jump Ohio State, even if OSU does pull off a win against Michigan. That situation might make it easy for the Tigers to look past a wounded and struggling 'Bama team. If LSU gets caught looking ahead to Ole Miss, things could get ugly in Tuscaloosa.
Auburn must beat either Georgia or Alabama to be bowl elligible, as their win against Western Kentucky will not count toward the six wins that they must have. If Auburn fails to come away with a win at Sanford Stadium in Athens they'll have their backs against the wall when Alabama comes to town. Losing their next two games would keep Tuberville and Auburn from getting even the most absurd of bowl bids. In Alabama's favor is that the Iron Bowl has gone to the visiting team ever since it moved from Legion Field in 1999.
These things are unlikely, but entirely possible. The real question, though, is whether anyone would care if Shula lost to Hawaii after beating LSU and Auburn.
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Comments & Trackbacks
john says:
posted on November 10, 2003 06:52 PM — linkHow exactly could LSU leapfrog OSU if they both win out? OSU is 5.5 points ahead of LSU in today's standings -- if USC drops out, LSU does not gain on OSU in the polls relatively, LSU gains a point, maybe 2, in the computer average (depending on how all the other teams fare), where does the rest come from? OSU has a 2 point strength of schedule advantage today, that may wane a little bit but not that much.
Chris Lawrence says:
posted on November 10, 2003 07:27 PM — linkI think the one place where LSU gets an advantage is that it'll still be playing; OSU's last game is the same day as LSU-Ole Miss (11/22), while if LSU wins out they'll still have two more games: Arkansas and the SEC-CG (if things stay the way they are, a Georgia rematch). That might help them in the minds of the pollsters a bit, particularly if they beat Georgia again, convincingly, on Georgia's home turf.
Plus, where LSU is getting nailed at the moment is in SOS and computer average (which essentially is SOS again). 3 more SEC games will help the SOS creep back up, particularly Arkansas with its win over Texas.
john says:
posted on November 10, 2003 07:51 PM — linkYes I can see some advantage there. OSU is closing out the season against 2 top 20 teams so OSU doesn't give up much the next 2 weeks assuming they win.
It probably all comes down to winning and winning well -- which doesn't bode well for OSU...
Pete Holiday says:
posted on November 10, 2003 09:02 PM — linkIt's true, jumping OSU without an OSU loss would be tough, but if LSU trounces the rest of their schedule, it's not terribly unrealistic as their Comp. Avg. numbers will go down, and their SOS will go up.
Besides... that's all hinging upon USC losing to UCLA, Oregon State, or Arizona... which is not impossible, but certainly not terribly likely.
Pete Holiday says:
posted on November 10, 2003 11:47 PM — linkLadies and gentlemen, welcome Sean who is obviously the official Spokesperson for the LSU Tigers!
Sorry, Sean, none of that means anything. Past injustices aren't guarantees that the team won't get ahead of themselves. They're just kids, remember.
This is the SEC, with the possible exception of vandy, there's enough bad-blood with all the teams that nobody should be looking past anyone, by your logic, but it happens.
Even still, Bama has played great teams close this year, it's not unthinkable that they'll play LSU close, or even win.
I wouldn't put my money on it, of course, but it's certainly not an outlandish thought.
Chris Lawrence says:
posted on November 11, 2003 12:21 AM — linkBama did look surprisingly alive against MSU, in as much of the game I could bear watching. (Don't get me wrong: watching State get spanked is fun. But it gets repetitive after a while.) But I can't tell whether it is because Bama is on the rebound, or just because almost everyone looks good against State this year.
Should be an interesting game Saturday night in Tuscaloosa nonetheless. I'm half rooting for LSU just so the game here in Oxford in two weeks will be bigger.
Matt says:
posted on November 12, 2003 09:43 AM — linkAccording to Tony Barnhart of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Auburn is already bowl-elgible, despite the fact that one of their six wins is against I-AA Western Kentucky. The NCAA apparently has a "four-year rule" that allows a team to count a win versus a I-AA victory to count towards bowl elgibility once during that four year span. I was disappointed to hear this, considering that otherwise the "preseason #1" Auburn Tigers could go only to the Toilet Bowl with losses to Georgia and Alabama. Oh well. GO DAWGS and ROLL TIDE!!
