September 19, 2004
Newsflash: Making PAT's Not Unimportant
And just like that, LSU is most likely eliminated from repeating as SEC or National champs.
Well, gee Dave, it's only one loss...isn't that a bit harsh? you ask. No, not really.
For LSU (or any other SEC school) to be in the National Title picture this year, they'll have to win both their side of the conference AND the SEC Title Game in Atlanta. From The Advocate:
To get back to Atlanta, LSU would either have to go undefeated the rest of the way -- with trips to Georgia, Florida and Arkansas remaining -- AND have Auburn lose twice.
OR
LSU could go through with just one more SEC defeat and have Auburn go 3-3 in its final six conference games.
Neither scenario is likely in my view. Auburn's remaining SEC schedule is:
at Tennessee
Arkansas
Kentucky
at Ole Miss
Georgia
at Alabama
Yes, Auburn could certainly lose twice, with Tennessee and Georgia being the most likely candidates and Arkansas as an outside shot. (I'm still not convinced Arkansas is very good this year. Yeah, they played Texas tough. I'm not sold.) But with 2 of the 3 at home, losing all three would require an absolute implosion by the Tigers the War Eagles the Plainsmen Auburn. It's frankly inconceivable to me that they'd lose to Kentucky, Ole Miss, or Alabama this year (now that Croyle is toast for the season).
Even if Auburn were to lose 2 (or 3) games, LSU, barring a miracle, isn't going to go through their remaining SEC schedule undefeated. They shouldn't have any trouble with Mississippi State, Vandy, Ole Miss, or Bama at home. But, as mentioned above, they've also got Georgia, Florida, and Arkansa on the roads, with Georgia and Florida back-to-back. They've got a senior quarterback who is bad on most days and mediocre on a great day, and a freshman quarterback (with tons of potential) who consistently throws the ball too hard or too low to be caught. The kicking game is awful. Their much ballyhooed offensive line, which was going to blow holes in opposing defenses so Justin Vincent could carry the team while the young quarterback got up to speed- well, so far they're earning a generous C-minus. The only real bright spot is the defense, and even that spot's not as bright as the preseason hype, what with all the badly missed tackles and dropped interceptions.
It's still early in the season, and freakier things have happened in the world of college football, but in all likelihood, LSU isn't going to be conference or national champs this year. And that's fine by me. While I'm sure the coaches and players will keep their championship dreams alive until they are actually mathematically eliminated, for me as a fan, the pressure's off.
My mindset now is let's just play good football, finish up 8-3 or 7-4, and go play some respectable if not prestigious bowl game. Next year, hopefully, JaMarcus Russell will be experienced and we can think realistically about conference championships again.
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Comments & Trackbacks
Kevin Donahue says:
posted on September 19, 2004 11:21 AM — linkLSU is definitely a team that is carried by their defense. The problem is - when they meet a team that has a strong/exceptional defense - there's little margin for error. The kicking game is bad, OK. The problem is not moving the ball & having to kick. The situation at QB has is the achille's heel for the Tigers.
dave frey says:
posted on September 19, 2004 11:33 AM — linkI put the blame for the QB situation squarely on Nick Saban. He needs to pick a damn quarterback and stick with him. And keeping the future in mind, that damn quarterback needs to be JaMarcus Russell. Period. Yes, we're going to have to go through some growing pains while JaMarcus gains experience. So what? Randall sucks, and if you go with Randall this year, then you go through JaMarcus' growing pains next year.
Maybe, just maybe, if Saban comes to the realization that this isn't going to be a championship season anyway, he'll go ahead and put designate JaMarcus as full time starter.
Pete Holiday says:
posted on September 19, 2004 12:18 PM — linkI wouldn't be so quick to rule out a total implosion from Auburn. If they have any sort of football tradition on the plains, I think we all have to admit that it involves imploding.
Stu Churchwell says:
posted on September 20, 2004 09:04 PM — linkLSU is behind the 8-ball from here on out. Personally, from what I've seen from UGA, the Bayou Bengals/Tigers/Swamp Rats have a chance of beating the Dawgs. However...the trip to Athens will take alot out of LSU. And even if they upend UGA, I have Florida circled for a win over LSU the next weekend.
Not really certain that Arkansas will have much of a chance against an 8-2 LSU rolling into the Hawgs backyard. But if (big if) LSU comes into that game with losses to Aub, UGA and UF, then suddenly I'm thinking that even Arkansas can beat a morally defeated LSU squad.
Either way, Auburn is in the driver's seat. Their toughest game until Georgia remains the visit to Knoxville. I think home field will carry UT over Auburn. But unless UGA improves on offense (dramatically), then Auburn has a legit shot at a 1-loss season.
I'm taking Auburn to win the west. LSU's schedule is simply too brutal. And if LSU's catastrophic QB arrangement doesn't change, this LSU squad could well eclipse all the preseason hype lumped on Auburn last year.
dave frey says:
posted on September 20, 2004 09:15 PM — linkI'm optimistically pegging LSU at 8-3. I really don't see them beating Georgia, and certainly not Florida. I do think they'll beat Arkansas. They'll have 4 straight wins after the GA/FL losses, (Vandy, Troy, Ole Miss, and Bama) and they should be over any demorilization by then. I'm also not convinced that Arkansas is very good at all. It's entirely possible that they played way over their heads for Texas, and/or that Texas had an off day. Still, odd things tend to happen in LSU/Arkansas games, so you never know.
schmed says:
posted on September 21, 2004 09:29 AM — linkI think it was significant that Saban gave Russell the rock for the last drive. There are so many parallels between Russell and Reauxhon Davey - physically, mechanically, their learning curves, leadership potential - and when that inexperienced QB clicks with his wet-behind-the-ears WRs, LSU will beat anybody the defense can hold under 20 points.
The question is "when" - mid season or with a 7-4 / 6-5 mark on the line against Coach Nutz and the Swine.
Robert Knodell says:
posted on September 21, 2004 08:44 PM — linkActually, I wouldn't bury LSU just yet, regardless of what Auburn does or doesn't do. Georgia looks less than stellar thus far and more beatable than they did in the preseason and Florida can certainly be beaten. If (and I know it's a big "if") LSU can pull those off, the schedule sets up very nicely for a return to the BCS.
In fact, they might actually root FOR Auburn to win out or just lose one so that you don't have to risk a tough SEC championship game. A 10-1 LSU will likely move high enough into the rankings to gain an at-large BCS bowl spot and, if no team goes undefeated, argue for an AP title.
I knew LSU wouldn't survive the AU-UGA-UF stretch 3-0, but if it gets through 2-1, there are still a lot of nice possibilities out there for the Tigers, SEC title or not.
Stu Churchwell says:
posted on September 21, 2004 10:22 PM — linkA small part of your argument makes no sense; that being that a 10-1 LSU team that gains a BCS berth but doesn't play for an SEC title could make an argument for an AP title.
The BCS system no longer allows the "Nebraska" factor. If you don't win your conference, you are ineligible to play in the national title game.
Your other points are certainly within reason. But LSU would have to win the SEC in order to gain a national title berth. And that seems extremely unlikely, IMHO.
Robert Knodell says:
posted on September 21, 2004 10:48 PM — linkActually, I know that not playing for your league title makes you ineligible for the BCS championship, but I was arguing that a 10-1 LSU can still get into the BCS and (assuming neither national title game participant is unbeaten, as was the case last season) lobby for the AP should they win. The AP is still free to vote for whonever they choose to be #1, from what I understand.
Kevin Donahue says:
posted on September 21, 2004 11:33 PM — linkYou guys are wrong. Conference championships are not a factor in the BCS title game. The top two teams (as ranked by a combination of the AP, Coaches, and an aggregate of the computer polls) compete in the title game. Winning the conference title makes no difference - just ask last year's Big XII runner-up, Oklahoma.
Robert Knodell says:
posted on September 21, 2004 11:54 PM — linkWhat I meant was BCS automatic berth. Those go only to conference champions. My bad. What I meant was at-large berth.
Jeff Dundon says:
posted on September 23, 2004 02:07 PM — linkQUOTE:
"I'm optimistically pegging LSU at 8-3. I really don't see them beating Georgia, and certainly not Florida. I do think they'll beat Arkansas. They'll have 4 straight wins after the GA/FL losses, (Vandy, Troy, Ole Miss, and Bama) and they should be over any demorilization by then. I'm also not convinced that Arkansas is very good at all. It's entirely possible that they played way over their heads for Texas, and/or that Texas had an off day. Still, odd things tend to happen in LSU/Arkansas games, so you never know. "
Hi guys. I am new to the board. Seems like a great place to post. Seems like less bickering here than on other boards.
Anyway, I have posted on another topic and as you may have been able to tell, I am a little biased when it comes to Alabama. I try not to be but it's a passion. Anyway, you guys are being WAY to quick to count ALabama out. Let's just see what happens in Fayettville. I think you guys will be surprised. Also, UGA is a bit overrated IMO. I say LSU beats them good.
dave frey says:
posted on September 23, 2004 05:33 PM — linkWelcome aboard Jeff. You may be right about us writing Bama off a little too quickly. Sometimes an inexperienced player comes off the bench when the starter goes down and has a phenomenal year. That's certainly possible for the Tide; after all, the kid came from a school that only recruits top notch QB's. I think the Bama/Arkansas game will tell us a lot about how good Bama can be this year. Even if this isn't their year, I think their future looks pretty good.
I hope you're right about LSU/UGA. We seem to have their number defensively; problem is, we seem to have NO offense this year. Before the season, my reasoning was that even if the QB's struggled (and boy have they struggled), we had a first rate O-Line and Justin Vincent at running back, so the run should more than make up for any shortages in the passing game. So far, that just hasn't happened. But it still could.
jeff dundon says:
posted on September 24, 2004 03:46 PM — linkI think that you hit the nail on the head regarding the QB situation. I am really surprised that Saban is not sticking with one QB. Usually an HC of Saban's caliber will not let a QB controversy develop.
Even with a Justin Vincent at RB and a ferocious O-line like LSU appears to have, it's hard to run every time when playing a physical backfield like Auburn's. If they think you are going to run they'll send the OLB's up to the line and move the safety's up the middle to close the gaps created by the O-line. I think you have to pass a little bit to keep them honest. I think LSU can do that, it's just an area that needs to be worked on. Hopefully somplace between MSU and the UGA/LSU kickoff, Saban will have figures a way to keep the Dawg's backfield spread thin. Again, I'm not impressed with UGA so far.
As for the Tide, we'll find out at 2:30 tomorrow whether they're Cinderella or not. I think the true test will be the following week against South Carolina (glad that one is at home).
Thanks for the welcome.
