October 19, 2004
Is Your State the "Football King"? Check Here
Imagine if you could lay all family ties, career ties, regional preferences, and team allegiances aside. Image that you could be dropped into a state with plenty of winning college football teams, lots of happy fans, and ample choices of good games to watch. Where would you go? Some answers may surprise you; others won't.
A quick statistical comparison ranks the overall win/loss records of NCAA Division 1-A football teams by state. For the sake of statistical fairness and comparative ease, only states with three or more D1-A teams--17 total states--are included (surely, having three teams is the mark of a state that has its sporting priorities in order!).
Alabama (20-6 overall, including 7-0 Auburn, 5-1 UAB, 5-2 Alabama, & 3-3 Troy) leads the way as the #1 football mecca to date this season. It is followed by Oklahoma (12-6, with 6-0 Oklahoma, 5-1 Oklahoma St., & 1-5 Tulsa) and California (25-14, including 6-0 USC, 4-1 Cal, 4-2 Stanford, 4-2 UCLA, 3-2 Fresno St., 2-3 San Jose St., & 2-4 San Diego St.).
The worst three places to be a college football fan this season are New York (6-13, with 3-3 Syracuse, 2-4 Army, & 1-6 Buffalo), Pennsylvania (7-12, including 4-2 Pitt, 2-4 Penn St., & 1-6 Temple), and North Carolina (12-18, with 4-2 NC St., 3-3 Wake Forest, 3-4 North Carolina, 1-4 East Carolina, & 1-5 Duke).
Here are the rankings:
1. Alabama (4 teams) 20-6/0.769
2. Oklahoma (3) 12-6/0.667
3. California (7) 25-14/0.641
4. Florida (5) 16-12/0.571
5. Utah (3) 11-9/0.550
6. Tennessee (4) 13-11/0.542
7. Indiana (4) 13-13/0.500
7. Illinois (3) 10-10/0.500
7. Colorado (3) 9-9/0.500
10. Texas (10) 30-31/0.492
11. Michigan (5) 16-17/0.485
12. Ohio (8) 25-28/0.472
13. Louisiana (5) 14-17/0.452
14. Mississippi (3) 8-10/0.444
15. North Carolina (5) 12-18/0.400
16. Pennsylvania (3) 7-12/0.368
17. New York (3) 6-13/0.312
Not surprisingly, the top four states all feature unbeaten top four teams in the AP and Coaches' Polls.
Of course, some could argue that certain larger states (such as Ohio and Texas) have a glut of mid-major program that are not very compelling to begin with. However, one could counter that sufficient talent exists within those big states to stock a number of teams at varying levels of prestige.
Before putting your home up for sale or checking the "help wanted" ads in Birmingham, Mobile, or Oklahoma City, you might want to remember that these numbers will vary from week to week and certainly from season to season.
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Comments & Trackbacks
Mike says:
posted on October 20, 2004 12:08 AM — linkIf you drop Florida International and Florida Atlantic from the equation, Florida wins with an .823 winning percentage.
Robert Knodell says:
posted on October 20, 2004 12:29 AM — linkActually, neither FIU or FAU is in this equation. The haven't reach full 1-A status yet. The five teams included are UF, FSU, Miami, Central Florida, and South Florida. However, taking away UCF and USF gets you to the same number. Of course, you could drop a team or two from a number of states and obtain a better record.
Mike says:
posted on October 21, 2004 04:56 PM — linkOh yeah, I forgot about the Knights and Bulls.
Jeff Brock says:
posted on October 22, 2004 09:57 AM — linkGreat work!
But, I have one small contention with this analysis - it makes little statistical sense to compare the teams from a state while counting intra-state games in the record. For example, NC State has lost to UNC...therefore imapcting both of their records. The records should be compiled as excluding games against your state.
The more the teams within a state play each other, the more the state's record will always be skewed closer to .500 (since each game produces 1 win and 1 loss).
Depending upon the particular state's record against non-in-state fores - it could help or hurt their position.
Kevin Donahue says:
posted on October 22, 2004 10:11 AM — linkHow is that a good point? You're measuring the strength of teams based on their record. We should put an astrisk next to teams that have played in state rivals?
Robert Knodell says:
posted on October 22, 2004 10:20 AM — linkIn-state games will take a state closer to .500, of course, but dogs are dogs and I think the strength of teams comes through well enough.
