June 8, 2009

Utah scheduling issues?

How about discussing the issues that Utah is having scheduling ANYONE from BCS conferences following the Fiesta and Sugar Bowl wins?

It would certainly highlight the extremes that the BCS schools and conferences will go to in order to lock out a non-AQ school.

Utah has sent out email updates regarding scheduling for 2010 and 2011 and, basically, all the BCS schools have declined to schedule Utah.

I think this needs to be highlighted so that, down the road when the S.O.S. argument comes up, this can be pointed out.

Sincerly,
Ben Leaver
Kaysville, UT

Utah wants a home and away series with a BCS conference member for 2010-2011. This hole was formed when Utah State decided that at this point in its program it would be better to only play one of Utah or BYU each year, not both.

The open question is whether a BCS conference member will agree to a home and away or if Utah will be willing to agree to a one and done for those years next year when the urgency is higher.

I have been wanting to expand on what constitutes a reasonable deal for home and away scheduling for a bit now. Historically arrangements fell into the home and away or one and done varieties. Recently two for one arrangements have become more popular.

For out of conference games, excluding traditional rivalries, these arrangement should be made based on average attendance to maximize the total value to the sport. Teams should host games proportionally to their respective fan bases. Examination of the current scheduling practices suggest that the following values are a good estimate of the market value of home field based on attendance.

More fans : Less fans
1:1 to 3:2 warrants a home and away series
3:2 to 5:2 warrants a two for one series
5:2 to 1:0 warrants a one and done

Utah has an average attendance of 45,542K. Utah's home and away range is teams with an average attendance between 30,361 and 68,313. Utah's one and done range is teams over 113,855 (the largest average attendance is 108571, so Utah should always hold out for a two for one deal). Utah should never visit anyone with an attendance under 18,217.

This gives the following realistic targets for various options for Utah:

One and done: None

Two for one: Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Clemson, FSU, Michigan State, UCLA, Iowa, Kentucky, Arkansas

Home and Away: Virgina Tech, Missouri, BYU, ASU, Washington, Illinois, California, West Virginia, Oregon, NC State, Virginia, Texas Tech, Ole' Miss, Arizona, Kansas, USF, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Iowa St, Miami (FL), UTAH, Kansas State, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Rutgers, East Carolina, Boston College, Hawaii, Louisville, UCF, Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Air Force, Fresno State, UTEP, Navy, Stanford, Baylor, Syracuse, Boise State, Cincinnati, Indiana, Wake Forest, TCU

Recent and up coming series with Louisville, Oregon State, Oregon, Boise State, Washington State, Iowa State and UCLA suggest this is not far from the realities of college football. Their are some SOS bargains in that home and away list that could allow Utah to get a home and away against a team that will give them ranking value.

Utah is a large enough program that they should be able to get good smaller programs to visit for a one and done. Central Michigan, Houston and Nevada are some of the more compelling teams that Utah could consider offering a two for one and expect consideration. One could even ask why Utah is willing to agree to a home and away with San Jose State based on this model.

This is part of the reason why Utah is not fighting hard to preserve the Utah-Utah State rivalry. This is also why the talk of restoring the Utah-Colorado rivalry is stirring (A home and away is set for 2012-2013).

This is also why BYU is able to get teams like FSU to visit when Utah isn't. They have an average attendance of 64,102 to FSU's 77,968, well within the 3:2 ratio. If Utah wants more big names to travel to SLC they need to expand the south end zone of Rice-Eccles Stadium and continue the increase in ticket sales from recent years. Utah is at 102% average capacity and is expecting to sell out of season tickets for the first time this year.

Utah can get games with the big names. If the big names have big fan bases Utah is going to need to travel. Utah has 4 OOC games per year. I would like to see 2 of those be a part of a two for one against winning teams with attendance figures over 68K, a home and away against quality teams with programs of a similar fan base and a hosting a one and done against smaller teams with bowl aspirations.

Comments:

Utah scheduling issues?

How about discussing the issues that Utah is having scheduling ANYONE from BCS conferences following the Fiesta and Sugar Bowl wins? It would certainly highlight the extremes that the BCS schools and conferences will go to in order to lock out a non-AQ school. Utah has sent out email updates regarding scheduling for 2010 and 2011 and, basically, all the BCS schools have declined to schedule Utah. I think this needs to be highlighted so that, down the road when the S.O.S. argument comes up, this can be pointed out. Sincerly, Ben Leaver Kaysville, UT

Utah wants a home and away series with a BCS conference member for 2010-2011. This hole was formed when Utah State decided that at this point in its program it would be better to only play one of Utah or BYU each year, not both. The open question is whether a BCS conference member will agree to a home and away or if Utah will be willing to agree to a one and done for those years next year when the urgency is higher. I have been wanting to expand on what constitutes a reasonable deal for home and away scheduling for a bit now. Historically arrangements fell into the home and away or one and done varieties. Recently two for one arrangements have become more popular. For out of conference games, excluding traditional rivalries, these arrangement should be made based on average attendance to maximize the total value to the sport. Teams should host games proportionally to their respective fan bases. Examination of the current scheduling practices suggest that the following values are a good estimate of the market value of home field based on attendance. More fans : Less fans 1:1 to 3:2 warrants a home and away series 3:2 to 5:2 warrants a two for one series 5:2 to 1:0 warrants a one and done Utah has an average attendance of 45,542K. Utah's home and away range is teams with an average attendance between 30,361 and 68,313. Utah's one and done range is teams over 113,855 (the largest average attendance is 108571, so Utah should always hold out for a two for one deal). Utah should never visit anyone with an attendance under 18,217. This gives the following realistic targets for various options for Utah: One and done: None Two for one: Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Clemson, FSU, Michigan State, UCLA, Iowa, Kentucky, Arkansas Home and Away: Virgina Tech, Missouri, BYU, ASU, Washington, Illinois, California, West Virginia, Oregon, NC State, Virginia, Texas Tech, Ole' Miss, Arizona, Kansas, USF, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Iowa St, Miami (FL), UTAH, Kansas State, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Rutgers, East Carolina, Boston College, Hawaii, Louisville, UCF, Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Air Force, Fresno State, UTEP, Navy, Stanford, Baylor, Syracuse, Boise State, Cincinnati, Indiana, Wake Forest, TCU Recent and up coming series with Louisville, Oregon State, Oregon, Boise State, Washington State, Iowa State and UCLA suggest this is not far from the realities of college football. Their are some SOS bargains in that home and away list that could allow Utah to get a home and away against a team that will give them ranking value. Utah is a large enough program that they should be able to get good smaller programs to visit for a one and done. Central Michigan, Houston and Nevada are some of the more compelling teams that Utah could consider offering a two for one and expect consideration. One could even ask why Utah is willing to agree to a home and away with San Jose State based on this model. This is part of the reason why Utah is not fighting hard to preserve the Utah-Utah State rivalry. This is also why the talk of restoring the Utah-Colorado rivalry is stirring (A home and away is set for 2012-2013). This is also why BYU is able to get teams like FSU to visit when Utah isn't. They have an average attendance of 64,102 to FSU's 77,968, well within the 3:2 ratio. If Utah wants more big names to travel to SLC they need to expand the south end zone of Rice-Eccles Stadium and continue the increase in ticket sales from recent years. Utah is at 102% average capacity and is expecting to sell out of season tickets for the first time this year. Utah can get games with the big names. If the big names have big fan bases Utah is going to need to travel. Utah has 4 OOC games per year. I would like to see 2 of those be a part of a two for one against winning teams with attendance figures over 68K, a home and away against quality teams with programs of a similar fan base and a hosting a one and done against smaller teams with bowl aspirations.