November 4, 2005
Virginia Tech-Miami Preview
The eyes of the college football world are focused on Blacksburg, Virginia this weekend as the #3 Virginia Tech Hokies (8-0, 5-0 ACC) host the #5 Miami Hurricanes (6-1, 3-1 ACC) at 7:45 PM Saturday night (ESPN/XM 192). ESPN has brought the full might of its media machine to town, broadcasting ESPN2's Cold Pizza morning show from Blacksburg on Friday morning, College Gameday on Saturday morning, the radio GameDay all day long on Saturday, and even running a game-long feed from the quarterback's-view Skycam (paired with the regular commentators' audio) on ESPNU.
Hype aside, this is the most-anticipated game of the year short of the Rose Bowl, as pre-season commentators pointed to it as a potential national championship semifinal. Many Hokie fans point to Tech's first-ever win over Miami, in 1995, as the true launch of this program to its current national status. That game began a 5-year Hokie winning streak, aided by Miami's probation handed down later in that 1995 season. Conversely, Miami capped its resurgence in 2000 with a resounding win over the Hokies with Michael Vick hobbled by a Pittsburgh ankle twist, and then knocked out two more consecutive wins: 26-24 in 2001 with the Hokies giving them their best challenge of the year despite a 4-for-20 from QB Grant Noel, then a 56-45 shootout in 2002. The Hokies turned it around 31-7 in 2003 with one of the most electric wins in Virginia Tech history, then knocked the Hurricanes off last year 16-10 in a de facto ACC championship game. Since 1995, the Hokies have never feared Miami, and Tech's refusal to give Miami what the Canes view as their due deference has created one of the truly nasty rivalries of the past decade.
Let's break this one down.
HOKIES ON OFFENSE
Both teams' offenses will be facing the toughest challenge of their year, as the defenses are essentially tied for tops in the nation (VT and Miami trade 1 and 2 spots in scoring defense and total defense). Tech's running back situation has marginally improved, with Cedric Humes and Mike Imoh both putting up good numbers in their most recent games. The best running back on the team still appears to be sophomore Branden Ore, but a goal-line fumble versus Boston College likely ended his chances of breaking through the coaching staff's loyalty to seniors. The offense is balanced with a large stable of WRs, plus senior TE Jeff King.
The danger point is red-zone conversion, against a broadly solid Miami defense. Tech showed difficulty against Maryland and continued with such against BC; in those games plus at WVU, the Hokies didn't pull away until superior personnel, conditioning and depth wore the opposing defense down in the fourth quarter. That's not likely to happen against Miami, talented as always; the Hurricanes are more likely to get frustrated and emotional than physically beaten. Capitalizing on red-zone possessions early could break this game open for Tech; conversely, getting stuck with field goals or losing possession could build Miami's confidence if their offense can convert.
HURRICANES ON OFFENSE
Sophomore Kyle Wright won the pre-season battle and has matured into a serviceable college quarterback as the season progressed, with a 58.5% completion rate, 1383 yards in 7 games (average of 198/game) and 10 TDs to 8 INTs; he is not a running threat. The Canes hit teams high and low: their top receiving threats are sophomore TE Greg Olsen, 6'6"/247 pounds, and senior WR Sinorice Moss at 5'8"/182. Their offense, though, is mostly reliant on junior RB Tyrone Moss, who only averages 19 carries a game for 96 yards, but does have 12 TDs in 7 games. This is not a traditional high-flying Miami offense; they may get there next year, but right now Wright's inexperience holds them back.
That's a bad thing coming into Lane Stadium for a night game against this Hokie defense. Teams have looked for a weak spot all season, but have yet to find it. Jimmy Williams, despite his generally infuriating habit of waving his arms to pump the crowd up on every single play, has been burned perhaps twice all season, and the Hokies have strangled four good offenses in the past six weeks. The DL and linebackers have been as good as advertised, and senior Justin Hamilton has turned into a key piece at strong safety despite converting from offense only this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Call this even. While Miami's kicking game is questionable, with K Jon Peattie only averaging 64% this year, PR Devin Hester has been astounding for the better part of two years, and the Hurricanes have gotten blocks when they needed them (particularly against North Carolina last week to begin the comeback). Conversely, Hokie placekicking has been solid and punting spectacular (although opposing teams are catching on to Nic Schmitt and Roland Minor's one-two act by holding Minor at the line), but returning and kick blocking have been mediocre to absent. It's easy to suspect that the Hokies are living on their kick-blocking reputation at this point; one hopes that they've been holding block schemes back for this game, but we have no evidence of such.
IN SUMMARY
When I began this article, I wrote the following sentence as a jumping-off point for my summary: "The difference between these teams, at this point in the season, comes down to the ability of Florida State's kicker to make a clutch field goal for once." I'm not sure I believe that anymore. Miami is talented, but I think that despite the odd offensive struggle, Tech has been more dominant over the past month against tougher competition.
Were this game in the Orange Bowl, perhaps it could be a push. But it's in Lane, it's at night, and Kyle Wright is a sophomore. It shouldn't be a big win, but I'll take the Hokies.
Comments:
JohnnyV said:
posted on November 4, 2005 4:06 PM — 162.6.228.121 — link — abuse?
EER14 - I'm loving your scenario. I hope that WVU does go to a BCS bowl and I hope they win. You guys would deserve it. I hope we can get to #2. But, we still have a long way to go even if we beat Miami. We have not beaten FSU since the early 70's.
posted on November 4, 2005 6:17 PM — link — abuse?Kevin Donahue said:
I don't know if Miami can beat VaTech at Lane, we'll just have to see. If they do, it will be *very* interesting to see the BCS standings on Monday. Can the 'Canes jump to #4? #3?
Regan said:
posted on November 4, 2005 7:52 PM — 64.12.116.139 — link — abuse?
As a 'Cane fan, I'll pick Miami over VT - Statistical analyses don't matter as much when the two teams are as evenly matched as these two. It will come down to 'Intangibles'. What are they? Er...I don't have that kind of time; here's two examples: Miami needs to wear white and green, and Virginia Tech should hope to be up at halftime by at least 17 points.
Remember: Miami knows that a win will enable them to have a rematch with some other Florida team; the significance of this cannot be overstated.
EER14 (#1):
I pick Miami to win out and play Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. (The Sugar and Orange might swap teams if the SEC Champ would go to the Sugar so they wouldn't have to play two games in Atlanta).I see West Virginia playing Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Mountaineers are playing good ball in the Big East and should win out.
I think LSU will win the SEC and play an at-large Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
I'd rather see something else, but I don't think anything is going to prove Tuberville wrong. Southern California should play Texas in the Rose, whether they have one loss or not.
posted on November 5, 2005 12:03 AM — 208.54.14.33 — link — abuse?
Regan, here's the funny thing about your "intangibles" comment: in the games VT has won in this series, it's usually been tight in the first half before VT pulls away in the second. Conversely, in Miami's three victories in the past ten years, the Canes have jumped on the Hokies hard from the start (though in '01 they allowed a failed VT comeback, and in '02 the Hokies made it look respectable at the end).
So historically, a close game at the half is no better than a wash for Miami, and may benefit Tech. A big Tech halftime lead would be unprecedented in this series; I don't expect to see that.
Miami's motivated, no question; sure, they want another shot at FSU, and they think VT stole "their" ACC championship last year in the OB. Plus they remember the full-fledged butt-kicking they got the last time they ventured into Lane. But overcoming this VT defense at night in Blacksburg is a darned tall order for a sophomore quarterback, no matter how motivated.
Regan said:
posted on November 5, 2005 4:56 AM — 205.188.116.199 — link — abuse?
True there, Josh: The Hokies definately have History on their side in their recent series with Miami.
Conversely, I will point out that Historically, Miami has been a really nasty underdog to teams riding high and also when they have a chip on their shoulder.
College Football is, in my opinion, a formula with 3x factors: 1/3 Talent, 1/3 Heart, and 1/3 Luck.
Hey, ACC refs are calling this game - anything can happen. :-)
RosebowlTex said:
posted on November 5, 2005 11:07 PM — 70.112.97.46 — link — abuse?
I guess if you think if Miami is overrated having been beat by FState who has now been beaten by 2 unranked teams and now that Miami is whipping VT..then VT must me way overrated...so much for VT jumping TX in BCS...who has VT beaten anyway?..and what about the qb rating...after playing a real team?..computers may be right afterall
posted on November 6, 2005 12:14 AM — 208.54.14.33 — link — abuse?
Chokie, Chokie, Chokie Hi
Tech, Tech, V-P-I
Number 3, then lose by 20
BCS? Ha ha, that's funny
posted on November 7, 2005 12:03 PM — 12.20.147.103 — link — abuse?
Well, sean, considering that (1) I served myself up a tasty helping of crow in comment #14 about an hour after the game, and then wrote a postgame article that (2) you responded to before posting here, the answer to your question appears to be no.
Miami won. Unfortunately, both reading comprehension and good sportsmanship still escape many Miami fans.
EER14 said:
posted on November 7, 2005 12:37 PM — 129.71.238.253 — link — abuse?
Virginia Tech is still a better football team. Vick had a very bad game, it happens. You Miami crack boy's can keep talking. South Florida is already cutting into your recruiting and it will only get worse for you in years to come. You so called Miami fans do not even go to your own games. Miami's average attendence is Division II level. Go away, You are still under the radar because the U... is OVERRATED !!!
canes alumni said:
posted on November 7, 2005 3:37 PM — 24.96.199.254 — link — abuse?
EER14
You should check your facts before posting. South Florida is not cutting into Miami's recruiting. To the unintelligent person, they might assume that because the university's name is South Florida that it is located in south Florida. However, USF is actually located in Tampa where Miami does not do its majority of recruiting. If a VT fan is intelligent enough to look at a map you would notice that these are two totally different parts of the state.The reason that Miami has such low attendence is two parts:
1. The stadium is located about 45 minutes away from the campus. It is also located in the Overtown area, that happens to be the ghetto and most affluent Miami students and alumni do not feel safe at the stadium.
2. When you come from a program that has the rich history of national championships, anything less is failure. Most colleges are happy to be contending for a conference championship, but Miami with our 5 national championships consider any season that doesn't give us our sixth a bad season.
posted on November 7, 2005 3:53 PM — 12.20.147.103 — link — abuse?
#18: If you think a commenter named "EER14" is a VT fan, you shouldn't go around insulting anyone's fact checking or intelligence.
USF won't do any damage to Miami's recruiting. Who they will impact are all the schools that used to fly in to pick up the in-state talent UM, UF and FSU overlooked as national powers. That includes most of the schools in the ACC and BE. VT has basically pulled out of recruiting the state of Florida because of all the new I-A programs (USF, UCF, FAU, FIU); they're instead focusing those resources on North Carolina with side runs into SC and GA, none of which they bothered with while they were in the Big East.
EER14 said:
posted on November 8, 2005 1:07 PM — 129.71.238.253 — link — abuse?
PORTIS: I will never strip the EER from my name or heart. I was going to WVU when you were still taking your daily crap in the pants. It simply appears that I hate Miami as much as you do Va Tech, Lets leave it at that. One question, are you going to the Cincinnati game tomorrow ? I am. If I did not love the EERS I would not be traveling to Cincinnati for a crap game in the rain. I'll keep my EER name and my statement.
LETS GO MOUNTIES !!
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EER14 said:
posted on November 4, 2005 1:49 PM — 129.71.238.253 — link — abuse?Miami is overrated as usual. For what it is worth. Virginia Tech 27 Miami 13. Tech jumps to
#2 and stay's to play USC for National Title. WVU goes 11-1 beating Alabama 16-10 in the Sugar Bowl in Atlanta with their only loss coming at the hands of the National Champions !!!!!!!!!