November 7, 2007
BCS Busters
Most of the talk about this year’s crop of potential BCS busters is focused on Hawaii and whether the computers or pollsters have them ranked correctly. Let us look at Hawaii’s situation and BCS chances.
Hawaii is at #16 because they have played one of the worst schedules in the NCAA bowl subdivision. Their current schedule would not even place in the top 10 of the Championship subdivision. They are lucky the humans have a Cinderella bias that consistently lifts the top non BCS team above where they honestly should be.
The most talked about factor of the BCS is strength of schedule. The BCS components have each incorporated their current measure of schedule strength into the current rankings. The strength of schedule adjustments are based more on how much the new opponent is above or below a team’s current schedule than how strong the opponent actually is.
No team has a more favorable differential between games played and games to be played than Hawaii. While Hawaii’s pathetic strength of schedule is responsible for them only being #16, it will greatly improve with Fresno State and Boise State on the horizon. Even Washington and Nevada will help bring up their average. Sad as it is, Hawaii might even pass a team or two.
The most significant factor in the BCS is attrition. #12 Michigan and #13 Connecticut both play top 10 teams, plus another bowl eligible team. Georgia, Texas and Florida all play two bowl eligible teams. A loss by ASU, BC or WV could put them below Hawaii as well. Anyone above that would likely need two losses, or a loss to the likes of Baylor or Ole Miss.
If they finish undefeated, Hawaii will be in the BCS. Hawaii has a lower strength of schedule than any other team in the WAC, MWC, C-USA or MAC. This demonstrates that an undefeated team from these conferences will be in the BCS top 12 any given year. An undefeated Sunbelt team might still need some help.
The problem with back loading their schedule is that they now play their toughest opponents. While wins over Fresno State and Boise State would greatly increase Hawaii’s strength of schedule, they also are significantly higher rated than any team Hawaii has played to date. #20 Boise State is higher than Hawaii in 5 of the 6 BCS computers.
Boise State still has viable routes to the BCS. If Hawaii is over rated by the pollsters, what will happen when they are faced with rating a Boise State team that defeats then undefeated Hawaii and brings back memories of the spectacular BCS finish with Oklahoma last year? Could there be a rematch in store this year?
Even with a win over Hawaii Boise State will need help to climb to the #12 spot. They did not have the strength of schedule TCU had in their one loss season of 2005 that got them into the top 12 a year too early. This week and the week of November 24th are critical for Boise State.
Which games are most important this week for Boise State? 1) Boise State vs. Utah State, they need to win. 2) Georgia vs. Auburn, Georgia beating Auburn gives Boise their best chances, as it knocks out Auburn and puts Georgia one step closer to a game with LSU, after Boise State has gained enough ground on Georgia that a loss would push Georgia below them. 3) Hawaii vs. Fresno State. The biggest factor from this game is the elevated emotional status of Boise State beating an undefeated Hawaii in on the pollsters two weeks from now.
Boise State needs to get over .32 BCS points next week. This would put them around #17 or #18. They would need .36 BCS points if Hawaii losses, or be around #16 or #17. Boise State only get .0267 points from Hawaii if Hawaii losses, not the full .04 they need.
Comments:
Gator said:
posted on November 7, 2007 9:46 PM — 24.170.194.91 — link — abuse?
well, if they do make it to a BCS bowl game they are in for a rude awakening. Imagine the points a team can put up on hawaii's defense in a BCS bowl game.
And then next year hawaii playing at UF for our home opener without Brennan...a lot of hawaii's bandwagon fans and sympathizers will be gone a year from now.Zac said:
posted on November 7, 2007 9:52 PM — 64.12.116.136 — link — abuse?
There's no comparison between this year's wacky season and last year. That holds true for Boise St. Last year I was in their corner. Not only were they undefeated, but of the 12 teams they played, 6 went to bowls, 5 won; not to mention, Boise beat Big 12 Champ, OK.
This season is a sharp contrast over last year. To date, Boise has played only 3 teams with winning records: Fresno St (6-3), S MS (5-4), WY (5-4). Although they won those games, they lost to 3-6 WA, and their remaining schedule (other than Hawaii) shows one win combined. This is hardly a resume' for a BCS team, even if they do beat undefeated Hawaii.
Hawaii's schedule is worse. It features 2 Div-2 teams, and one less team with a winning record. In fact, Hawaii's schedule shows an aggregate of 42-70, as compared with Boise St's 48-61 aggregate.
IMO, should Hawaii win out, only then should they be ranked higher than Boise St; that doesn't mean they should be in the BCS. If Boise beats them, even if Hawaii beats WA (something Boise failed to do), Boise should still be ranked above Hawaii (again, not necessarily in the BCS). After all, Boise lost at WA early in the season. Hawaii, has the Huskies at home.
Johnboy said:
posted on November 8, 2007 8:58 AM — 75.109.243.154 — link — abuse?
Talk about Hawaii----
Look at Arkansas-they had the 3rd weakest scheddule in the country this year, playing
4 schools most people have never heard of, and even PAYING them to come and play Arkansas!Come on, without those 4 Arkansas would be
2 and 7--is that bowl consideration material.
Arkansas and Houst Nutt maybe should be in the toilet bowl?
posted on November 8, 2007 9:24 AM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse?Ben Prather
said:
First of all, I want to say I had difficulties posting this article. I had cut and pasted it into MT and made all team and conference references links and corrected the inaccuracy I found about TCU's 2005 season.
I then went to preview it, hit the back button in my browser and it was gone.
I had to catch my bus, so I restored my rough draft.
I still don't know why all my apostrophies turned into funky dohickies.
Hawaii gained .0145 BCS points this past week, with thier pathetic schedule. They went down because other teams gained a little more with good wins. A win over Fresno State should give them about .07 BCS points and two spots. A win over Boise State would give them the other .07 they need to put them into the top 12. A win over Washington would keep them there. Once they get into the computer's top 25 they will climb rapidly. Any loss by any top 25 team gives Hawaii about .01 total BCS points.
After researching TCU's 2005 season they ended up #14 with wins over 4 teams in Bowls and a loss to SMU. They where #13 at one point but ended on a weak note, like Boise State, and slid down.
Boise State's scheudle includes 4 teams that will be in bowls and one that will likely be bowl eligible but sitting home (Wyoming).
So I ask you which is better, a loss to SMU to negate the benefit of your win over Oklahoma, who had a very down year; or a road loss to Washington?
Maybe I am over optomistic about Boise's chances. Unlike Hawaii, Boise State needs more than just wins.
shiguy said:
posted on November 8, 2007 10:08 AM — 157.182.42.213 — link — abuse?
ok so here is the problem i have with one of these teams going to a BCS bowl. yes everyone likes to see a cinderella team make it to the bowls and myself included was rooting boise st. from the hotel we had near the gator bowl last year. however that being said i agree with you Zac this year is quite different. last year boise st. demonstrated a complete dominance over their opponants one that would rival almost any team from the big 6 conferences. the teams they played were also of higher caliber at the time as well. this year is not so much with the 2 AA schools and the fact that hawaii (for those who were paying attention) has already had several close calls. also take a look at the current teams that are on the roster right now for bowls. lets simply concider the current rankings as to who would go to bowls. ohio st. and LSU in the championship. oregon in the rose oklahoma in the fiesta, georgia in the sugar, and BC in the orange. now the BE gets a spot to one of these 4 bowls so for now we'll just assume WVU wins it. that leaves only 3 spots that are available to at large bids. it will be very hard to put an undefeated hawaii over single loss teams such as kansas or even a 2 loss team such as missouri, v-tech or even USC. not saying it won't happen. but if ti does what does that say to the teams out there taking flack for it. the BE gets railed every year due to the lack of good OOC games. but if a team with 2 AA schools and only 3 teams with winning records can get into a BCS bowl why should temas strive to get good competition.
shiguy said:
posted on November 8, 2007 10:12 AM — 157.182.42.213 — link — abuse?
that being said...i personally think that anyone trying to rebuttle the hawaii argument should be pointing fingers at ohio st. which has won outright in all of their games but have played a very weak schedule for a team that is rated as the number one team in the country. personally i can't wait to see the michigan game and i'll cheering on the team that hosted the biggest upset in college football history.
Spartacus
posted on November 8, 2007 10:31 AM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
As a psuedo pro-gambler, and running my own computer systems (using variations of BCS computer programs to get "the spread"), I can assure anyone that Hawaii is not in the same solar system as many other teams. Ohio State leads the country with a rating of around 95.67 right now - followed very closely by Oregon, Kansas, LSU and Oklahoma. Southern Cal is playing around a 85.40 right now. All your ACC teams play around the high 70's. Hawaii plays at about a 77.81 right now. Wake Forest, Purdue, Colorado and Illinois are teams that play at that range. It means that Ohio State shoulb beat Hawaii by around eighteen on a nuetral field. There are probably at least thirty teams that would outrank Hawaii right now. Hawaii shouldn't even be in the conversation as there rating is done by SOS and winning margin. They'd get blown out no matter who they played in any BCS bowl game and especially the National Championship game.
Tommie Trojan
posted on November 8, 2007 11:58 AM — 150.176.192.1 — link — abuse? said:
#10) I am curious, how does Boise State fair in your ranking? I would suspect they too are on your list of teams over Hawaii.
#9) I am hoping Michigan and/or Ohio State lose this week. Wisconsin and Illinois are two bowl eligible teams. This year you can't count on anything.
I am simply trying to examine the BCS rating for what it is, not whether the ratings have merit.
Even if every game outside the WAC is an upset, these two teams do not have a chance at the National Championshiop. That could not be said in 2004 with Utah until the week before the conference championships.
Non BCS teams do well in the BCS. Any claim that the BCS rating is biased against non BCS teams can be catagorically rejected.
Spartacus
posted on November 8, 2007 1:37 PM — 72.25.84.228 — link — abuse? said:
Ben Prather:
Boise State is playing about two points better than Hawaii is for the year - even though they have suffered one loss to Washington. Boise is still just on the verge of being a Top 25 team. Boise State was much better last year and did emerge as a Top 12 or BCS eligible team. Hawaii and BYU were both very good teams last year also. But none of these three non-BCS teams are near being BCS eligible this - and won't be. The computer systems work real well. What does skew everything is the "perception" of the voters. What your lookin' for when tryin' to "bet a game" - is the public's mis-perception of a team. It's that perception that sets the line. It does not make it reality. The computers can help to sort that out. They can detect "a line" that is way off what it should be. You still have to make judgement calls - as computers can never really do better than about 60% against that line overall. But, it's just a yardstick. The "betting houses" use the computers to set most opening lines. On some games they'll try and figure out what public perception will be ahead of time - and open up with that. That's when you want to nail them before the "smart money" figures it all out and starts to bet against public perception. It's all very interesting, and I can assure you, those people in Nevada know exactly what they are doing. They are real good at this stuff. Either way, everything ends up 50-50% in the end. It's amazing to me.
Tommie Trojan
M GO BLUE said:
posted on November 8, 2007 2:22 PM — 216.46.210.243 — link — abuse?
Ben Prather, I don't see illinois beating OSU.....C'mon illinois could'nt even beat the team that lost to Appalachian state !!!!
Now Michigan might lose at Wisconsin, but a Michigan loss to Wisconsin will not affect Michigan's bowl hopes......we can lose to Wisconsin, and still get to a BCS bowl with a victory over the Buckeye's.
Go Blue
USCsean said:
posted on November 9, 2007 10:59 PM — 66.91.60.161 — link — abuse?
Gator said:
posted on November 7, 2007 9:46 PM — 24.170.194.91 — linkwell, if they do make it to a BCS bowl game they are in for a rude awakening. Imagine the points a team can put up on hawaii's defense in a BCS bowl game.
And then next year hawaii playing at UF for our home opener without Brennan...a lot of hawaii's bandwagon fans and sympathizers will be gone a year from now.LOOK AT WHAT HAWAII DID LAST YEAR AGANIST ARIZONA ST IN A BOWL GAME.....THEY ALSO DID PRETTY GOOD AGANIST ALABAMA ON THE ROAD.....YES HAWAII DOES OPEN ITS SEASON AT FLORIDA NEXT YEAR WITH A GOOD RETURNING QB....SO YOUR SAYING IF HAWAII AND FLORIDA PLAYED THIS SEASON HAWAII WOULD WIN CAUSE THEY HAVE BRENNAN?
USCsean said:
posted on November 9, 2007 11:00 PM — 66.91.60.161 — link — abuse?
Gator said:
posted on November 7, 2007 9:46 PM — 24.170.194.91 — linkwell, if they do make it to a BCS bowl game they are in for a rude awakening. Imagine the points a team can put up on hawaii's defense in a BCS bowl game.
And then next year hawaii playing at UF for our home opener without Brennan...a lot of hawaii's bandwagon fans and sympathizers will be gone a year from now.LOOK AT WHAT HAWAII DID LAST YEAR AGANIST ARIZONA ST IN A BOWL GAME.....THEY ALSO DID PRETTY GOOD AGANIST ALABAMA ON THE ROAD.....YES HAWAII DOES OPEN ITS SEASON AT FLORIDA NEXT YEAR WITH A GOOD RETURNING QB....SO YOUR SAYING IF HAWAII AND FLORIDA PLAYED THIS SEASON HAWAII WOULD WIN CAUSE THEY HAVE BRENNAN?
Tomcat said:
posted on November 10, 2007 6:42 AM — 69.150.79.102 — link — abuse?
#16 I agree Gatormatt, but it looks like those mighty rainbow warriors are gonna be BBQing some gatormeat next year according to this knowledgable authority.
What happened man did you ruffle some feathers on some rainbow warriors ceremonial headdress or something? If your going to use all caps why not say something that makes sense like
HAWAII IS GONNA LOSE! then they will still go to a decent bowl game & HAWAII WILL LOSE AGAIN
Then next year they play Florida and HAWAII WILL LOSE AGAIN. Now thats proper use of all caps.
I would love to see Hawaii play Kansas, OK ST or Texas Tech. Do the score boards go up into triple digits? If KU could run up 76 against Neb what would they run up against Hawaii 106?
I really dont think they will get past Fresno ST then go to a bowl and get beat. Write that down !Tomcat said:
posted on November 10, 2007 7:02 AM — 69.150.79.102 — link — abuse?
#17 Did some checking and I'm changing my prediction concerning Hawaii, sorry Hawaii fans I was wrong They are not going to lose two games as I predicted they are gonna lose four.
Fresno ST
Bois ST
WASH
and whoever they face in the preparation H Bowl. sponsered by Depends, because its gonna be the
sh-ts. Hawaii is going down!GoWarriors said:
posted on November 18, 2007 8:54 PM — 71.246.250.15 — link — abuse?
For you self-proclaimed experts, Hawaii has not been the Rainbow Warriors for years so if you intend to be insulting, get your facts straight.
In fact, before you continue to whine and complain about Hawaii's lack of a strong schedule, you need to do some research. Hawaii was turned down by many teams including Michigan. Michigan chose Applacian State instead and got the whooping they deserved. In fact, Michigan State and Texas has backed out of scheduled games for which contracts were signed. Hawaii's lack of a strong schedule is not for lack of trying. What can you do when other teams chicken out?
Tomcat: Fresno State didn't win and Hawaii's 2nd string QB played in Hawaii's win against Nevada. Uh, I guess that makes your prediction WRONG. Oh, BTW - your typing is as accurate as your predictions. I do hope you have a hobby more attuned to your skill level, or lack thereof.
Kevin Donahue 
said:
posted on November 7, 2007 8:34 PM — link — abuse?Hawaii went backwards this week, if that's any indication of what lies ahead for the 'Bows.