June 24, 2009

Does Boise State have an in conference challenger?

The WAC has sent more teams to the BCS than any other at-large conference over the last 4 years. Of the three at-large teams to earn a BCS berth two were from the WAC. One could argue that the WAC has earned bragging rights similar to the MWC, whose Utah has been the conferences only team to qualify, doing so twice.

Yet the WAC, not the MWC, is perceived as being the one team wonder, with the rest of the conference falling behind. Is this a false perception of the WAC or does this represent a real change in the makeup of this conference? I would argue both. Boise State should clearly be the favorite to win the conference and only Oregon will be close on paper, but they will not be unchallenged in the conference.

Anyone, anywhere, anytime
The WAC has a tough OOC this year, with many automatic qualifying conference members and top at-large conference teams, and that will cause significant numbers of losses along the way. An interesting note is that having Hawaii in the league allows the WAC members to play a 13th game in the years they travel to Hawaii, according to NCAA BY-LAWS 17.11.5.2. NCAA BY_LAW 17.31.2 also allows Hawaii to play a 13th game. This is why some teams have 5 OOC games and others only 4.

Two teams failed to schedule a 13th game this year, Utah State and Fresno State.

Boise State 12-1 (8-0 WAC)
OOC: Oregon, Miami(OH), @Bowling Green, UC Davis, @Tulsa

Except for UC Davis these should all be respectable games. They open the season with top 15 Oregon, by far their stiffest test. Having 2 top MAC teams (at least Miami was when they were added to the schedule) plus a potential C-USA champion on the road could give them a decent schedule strength, for an at-large conference member.

Fresno State, San Jose State, Nevada and Hawaii will not be intimidated by the Broncos, despite the odds against them.

San Jose State 8-4 (6-2 WAC)
OOC: @USC, Utah, @Stanford, Cal Poly

San Jose State might be the best 0-2 team to start the season. I don't know of a team that starts the season with a tougher one-two punch. They might ambush Utah if they are caught looking ahead to their Oregon game a week later. They are my dark horse candidate to take the WAC this year. The Stanford game should be a good test for both teams and I think San Jose State has a slight edge in this one.

Fresno State 9-3 (6-2 WAC)
OOC: UC Davis, @Wisconsin, @Cincinnati, @Illinois

Ok, maybe I can see why they didn't load on another team after that. Based on the home game with Wisconsin last year, where a couple of bad calls went against the Badgers and they still won, I don't think Fresno State is going to get this one on the road this year either. The games against Cincinnati and Illinois look to be very interesting barometers for the season.

Didn't we see UC Davis before? Are they planning on moving up to FBS and joining the WAC?

Nevada 7-5 (5-3 WAC)
OOC: @Notre Dame, @CSU, Missouri, UNLV

All four games should be fun. The two games with MWC teams should help feed the feud between these Siamese twin conferences. I think Nevada should get some bragging rights here for the WAC, but will cost them some points against the BCS folks. Then again, they could easily prove that I am wrong to think Notre Dame has turned a corner and will be greatly improved this year.

Hawaii 7-6 (4-4 WAC)
OOC: Central Arkansas, @WSU, @UNLV, Navy, Wisconsin

Well, they play Wisconsin. Isn't this the kind of schedule that got them to the 2008 Sugar Bowl? I don't think the teams above will simultaneously be down like they did in 2007. Navy should be a great game. The two road games should be wins but could be hard fought. [edited to fix years]

New Mexico State 5-8 (3-5 WAC)
OOC: Prairie View, UTEP, @New Mexico, @SDSU, @Ohio State

The games against UTEP and SDSU will be competitive, if not stellar. New Mexico should continue to dominate the in-state rivalry and Ohio State should get a solid showing for their die hard fans who will watch them play anyone.

Louisiana Tech 3-9 (2-6 WAC)
OOC: @Auburn, @Navy, Nichols State, @LSU

The Navy game might be competitive. The Auburn game will be interesting because I think Auburn may not have bought completely into their new coach yet and it is early in the year. Auburn is not going to be the Auburn of old (Unless you go back to before they became prominent).

Idaho 3-9 (1-7 WAC)
OOC: @Washington, SDSU, @N. Illinois, CSU

N. Illinois should be in the running for the MAC and too much for the Vandals. SDSU and CSU should give a good measure to the strength of the bottoms of these two conference. My how CSU has fallen. Speaking of fallen, I am expecting Idaho to beat Washington.

Utah State 2-10 (1-7 WAC)

OOC: @Utah, @Texas A&M, S. Utah, @BYU

Bet you didn't know Utah had 4 division 1 football programs did you? Good thing for Utah State because it gives them one they can beat. Texas A&M might be closer to them than with either of the two premier instate rivals.

WAC OOC
BCS: 15 games. Many of these games should be competitive. I could see anywhere from 6 to 9 wins for the WAC this year.

MWC: 10 games. Again the WAC has done a great job of getting games at a similar competition level. This could swing from 3 to 5 wins.

Total: 39 games. With a few games against the MAC and Navy thrown in, Most of the rest are against FBS teams and should be wins. 21 wins should be expected and 23 wins is not unreasonable.

Conclusion
Boise State might lose one in conference, but the next 4 in conference should beat each other up to where that still give Boise State at least a share of the title.

Boise State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech and Nevada certainly have a schedule that can get them to the BCS, possibly even into the top 14 need for consideration with a loss. Other than Boise State none of these teams look to be at a level to pull that off.

The remaining teams should be looking at bowl eligibility as, other than Hawaii, that would be a great year for where their program is today.

Until someone else steps up, or they find a greener pasture (please yes, we are all sick of blue pastures!), Boise State has taken a solid lead in the WAC.

Comments:

Does Boise State have an in conference challenger?
The WAC has sent more teams to the BCS than any other at-large conference over the last 4 years. Of the three at-large teams to earn a BCS berth two were from the WAC. One could argue that the WAC has earned bragging rights similar to the MWC, whose Utah has been the conferences only team to qualify, doing so twice. Yet the WAC, not the MWC, is perceived as being the one team wonder, with the rest of the conference falling behind. Is this a false perception of the WAC or does this represent a real change in the makeup of this conference? I would argue both. Boise State should clearly be the favorite to win the conference and only Oregon will be close on paper, but they will not be unchallenged in the conference. Anyone, anywhere, anytime The WAC has a tough OOC this year, with many automatic qualifying conference members and top at-large conference teams, and that will cause significant numbers of losses along the way. An interesting note is that having Hawaii in the league allows the WAC members to play a 13th game in the years they travel to Hawaii, according to NCAA BY-LAWS 17.11.5.2. NCAA BY_LAW 17.31.2 also allows Hawaii to play a 13th game. This is why some teams have 5 OOC games and others only 4. Two teams failed to schedule a 13th game this year, Utah State and Fresno State. Boise State 12-1 (8-0 WAC) OOC: Oregon, Miami(OH), @Bowling Green, UC Davis, @Tulsa Except for UC Davis these should all be respectable games. They open the season with top 15 Oregon, by far their stiffest test. Having 2 top MAC teams (at least Miami was when they were added to the schedule) plus a potential C-USA champion on the road could give them a decent schedule strength, for an at-large conference member. Fresno State, San Jose State, Nevada and Hawaii will not be intimidated by the Broncos, despite the odds against them. San Jose State 8-4 (6-2 WAC) OOC: @USC, Utah, @Stanford, Cal Poly San Jose State might be the best 0-2 team to start the season. I don't know of a team that starts the season with a tougher one-two punch. They might ambush Utah if they are caught looking ahead to their Oregon game a week later. They are my dark horse candidate to take the WAC this year. The Stanford game should be a good test for both teams and I think San Jose State has a slight edge in this one. Fresno State 9-3 (6-2 WAC) OOC: UC Davis, @Wisconsin, @Cincinnati, @Illinois Ok, maybe I can see why they didn't load on another team after that. Based on the home game with Wisconsin last year, where a couple of bad calls went against the Badgers and they still won, I don't think Fresno State is going to get this one on the road this year either. The games against Cincinnati and Illinois look to be very interesting barometers for the season. Didn't we see UC Davis before? Are they planning on moving up to FBS and joining the WAC? Nevada 7-5 (5-3 WAC) OOC: @Notre Dame, @CSU, Missouri, UNLV All four games should be fun. The two games with MWC teams should help feed the feud between these Siamese twin conferences. I think Nevada should get some bragging rights here for the WAC, but will cost them some points against the BCS folks. Then again, they could easily prove that I am wrong to think Notre Dame has turned a corner and will be greatly improved this year. Hawaii 7-6 (4-4 WAC) OOC: Central Arkansas, @WSU, @UNLV, Navy, Wisconsin Well, they play Wisconsin. Isn't this the kind of schedule that got them to the 2008 Sugar Bowl? I don't think the teams above will simultaneously be down like they did in 2007. Navy should be a great game. The two road games should be wins but could be hard fought. [edited to fix years] New Mexico State 5-8 (3-5 WAC) OOC: Prairie View, UTEP, @New Mexico, @SDSU, @Ohio State The games against UTEP and SDSU will be competitive, if not stellar. New Mexico should continue to dominate the in-state rivalry and Ohio State should get a solid showing for their die hard fans who will watch them play anyone. Louisiana Tech 3-9 (2-6 WAC) OOC: @Auburn, @Navy, Nichols State, @LSU The Navy game might be competitive. The Auburn game will be interesting because I think Auburn may not have bought completely into their new coach yet and it is early in the year. Auburn is not going to be the Auburn of old (Unless you go back to before they became prominent). Idaho 3-9 (1-7 WAC) OOC: @Washington, SDSU, @N. Illinois, CSU N. Illinois should be in the running for the MAC and too much for the Vandals. SDSU and CSU should give a good measure to the strength of the bottoms of these two conference. My how CSU has fallen. Speaking of fallen, I am expecting Idaho to beat Washington. Utah State 2-10 (1-7 WAC) OOC: @Utah, @Texas A&M, S. Utah, @BYU Bet you didn't know Utah had 4 division 1 football programs did you? Good thing for Utah State because it gives them one they can beat. Texas A&M might be closer to them than with either of the two premier instate rivals. WAC OOC BCS: 15 games. Many of these games should be competitive. I could see anywhere from 6 to 9 wins for the WAC this year. MWC: 10 games. Again the WAC has done a great job of getting games at a similar competition level. This could swing from 3 to 5 wins. Total: 39 games. With a few games against the MAC and Navy thrown in, Most of the rest are against FBS teams and should be wins. 21 wins should be expected and 23 wins is not unreasonable. Conclusion Boise State might lose one in conference, but the next 4 in conference should beat each other up to where that still give Boise State at least a share of the title. Boise State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech and Nevada certainly have a schedule that can get them to the BCS, possibly even into the top 14 need for consideration with a loss. Other than Boise State none of these teams look to be at a level to pull that off. The remaining teams should be looking at bowl eligibility as, other than Hawaii, that would be a great year for where their program is today. Until someone else steps up, or they find a greener pasture (please yes, we are all sick of blue pastures!), Boise State has taken a solid lead in the WAC.